NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 12 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, November 22, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Nov. 22, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 12, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals.

We have reached Week 12 of a 2013 NFL season that continues to zoom on bye, with 28 of the 32 teams in action as this is the final week of byes. We are not anxious for this year to end as we are a fine 48-37-1, +9.13 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the world to see on SBR Forum! Hopefully that good fortune continues we will continue be here offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks every week during the regular season.

This week began with a surprising contest on Thursday Night Football with the New Orleans Saints having a much tougher time than expected, especially offensively, vs. the Atlanta Falcons while eking out a non-covering 17-13 victory. The sportsbooks also undoubtedly compounded their profits with that contest stay well ‘under’ the closing total of 52½.

Looking ahead to Sunday, it is nothing but sides for us this week as we have five of them for Week 12, comprised of what are currently three underdogs and two favorites, although we are on a lot of small spreads where some flip-flopping of favorites and underdogs is possible. As has become our norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, November 24th
San Diego Chargers +4 (-105) over Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs finally suffered their first loss of the year after a 9-0 start 27-17 at Denver last week to drop behind the Broncos in the AFC West race, and while returning home to Arrowhead Stadium here where they are 5-0 while allowing just 12.6 points per game may help, we do not think this looks like a slam dunk easy win for them vs. a San Diego team that has been in every game this year. The Chargers may be 4-6, but five of the six losses were by one possessions and the sixth was by just 10 points at Oakland. Yes San Diego has obviously had problems closing out games, but the Chargers are always right there, which almost always makes them dangerous as underdogs. Such is the case here as San Diego seems like a candidate to actually score some points vs. the great Kansas City defense, as besides quarterback Philip Rivers looking like an elite quarterback again this year after a couple of horrendous seasons under former coach Norv Turner, running back Ryan Mathews is now healthy enough to give the offense balance, such as when he rushed for 127 yards in a typically close 20-16 loss at Miami last week.


Chicago Bears +1 (+100) over St. Louis Rams: The 4-6 Rams currently find themselves as tepid favorites over the 6-4 Bears here, and while St. Louis is coming off of a bye and we have a great deal of respect for Coach Jeff Fisher, we simply feel that the wrong team is favored. Yes the Rams had a surprising 38-8 road blowout win over the Indianapolis Colts when they last played two weeks ago, there second such blowout road upset this year after winning 38-13 at Houston before that, but the fact of the matter is that they were actually outgained in both of those games despite the easy wins, with many of their touchdowns coming on defense and special teams. The Rams are still just 27th in the NFL in total offense, 22nd in rushing offense and 21st in passing offense. The Bears are still in the NFC North race, in fact tied for first place with the Detroit Lions after overcoming an early 10-0 deficit and a two-hour weather delay to beat the Baltimore Ravens at home 23-20 in overtime last week. Josh McCown continues to fill in ably for Jay Cutler at quarterback and Matt Forte remains one of the best all-purpose running backs in the league after totaling 125 yards from scrimmage in the win last week, and the Bears know they cannot afford to lose winnable games like this if they are to be taken as serious playoff contenders.


Miami Dolphins +4½ (-109) over Carolina Panthers: The 7-3 Panthers enter this contest riding high while on a six-game winning streak since beginning the year 1-3. However, this is simply not a good spot for them. Remember that people were questioning the Panthers when they beat four bad teams to begin this streak, and even when they won their fifth straight over the 49ers 10-9, critics said that the result would have been different if San Francisco did not lose Vernon Davis so early in the game. Thus Carolina essentially played its Super Bowl this past Monday night when it beat Tom Brady and the Patriots 24-20. Now however, the Panthers are playing with short rest following that extremely emotional effort on prime time national television, and they are facing their second straight non-conference opponent with more important conference games, particularly two vs. the Saints, on the horizon, making this game a big “breather alert”. The Dolphins have continued to play well at home despite the whole bullying scandal, and in their last two home games they cooled off Andy Dalton and Philip Rivers respectively while beating the Bengals and Chargers. Miami could apply good pressure on Cam Newton here with a front seven that has totaled 30 sacks thus far, just six less than the league-leading Kansas City Chiefs.


Arizona Cardinals -1 (-134) over Indianapolis Colts: Who would have thought before this season began that a Week 12 matchup between the Colts and Cardinals would be such a nice matchup with playoff implications on the line for Arizona? It was also unexpected that Trent Richardson would be available for the Colts to trade for, but he has consistently shown why the Browns made him expendable as he has just 272 yards and two touchdowns in six games as a Colt while averaging a woeful 2.8 yards per carry. Thus, the Colts have basically gone back to being the one-dimensional passing team they were last year, except the Indianapolis offensive line is not very good and Andrew Luck’s favorite target Reggie Wayne is out for the season. Luckily the Colts are all set for a second straight playoff appearance with a three-game lead on the Tennessee Titans in the weak AFC South. Arizona is a surprising 6-4 and in the thick of the NFC wild card hunt and it appears to have the defense to win this game at home. The Arizona front seven should have its way with the Colts’ offensive line, and do not forget that the Cardinals also have one of the top shutdown cornerbacks in the league in Patrick Peterson to shadow the new Indianapolis primary receiver T.Y Hilton. Look for Arizona to improve to 5-1 in the desert here, where the Cardinals’ only loss came to the 10-1 Seattle Seahawks.


Denver Broncos -1 (-110) over New England Patriots: In what is this week’s “Game of the Year”, the Broncos turn up as extremely cheap favorites in New England. Now originally, we had no intentions of making a play on this game because we fully expected Denver to be -3 in Foxboro, which we feel is a perfect line, but here the oddsmakers go baiting us into making a play at a seemingly bargain price. The nerve of them! But seriously, the Broncos have the best offense in the NFL, and scoring 27 points vs. the great Kansas City defense last week may be more impressive than all of their other bloated point totals this year. Peyton Manning and his plethora of targets should be able to score points on a suddenly crumbling New England defense that has already lost Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo for the season and saw cornerback Aqib Talib aggravate his hip injury late in Monday’s 24-20 loss at Carolina, but not before getting burned a couple of times for big plays by Steve Smith, his old nemesis from when Talib played in Tampa Bay. Yes, the Patriots are still the Patriots, but they may need to score on every possession to keep pace with the Broncos here and the Denver defense has played significantly better since Von Miller returned from his suspension.


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