NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 11 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, November 15, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Nov. 15, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 11, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints.

We are now at Week 11 of a rapidly moving 2013 NFL season, and our fine season continues as we are now 46-33-1, +11.27 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum! With just seven weeks of the regular season remaining, we certainly hope that good fortune continues because, as usual, we will always be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks.

The Thursday Night Football game that kicked off this week was a good one for the players and a bad one for the sportsbooks as the heavily backed Indianapolis Colts covered as the small chalk in a 30-27 road win over the Tennessee Titans. Furthermore, the fact that game soared ‘over’ the closing total of 42 also pleased the public.

Moving on to Sunday, similar to the last few weeks, we are going with four sides and one total for Week 11. The sides are comprised of three underdogs and just one favorite, while the total is on probably the feature game of the Sunday afternoon games. As has become our custom, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, November 17th
Philadelphia Eagles -4½ (-102) over Washington Redskins: This is a rematch from opening week, when the Eagles travelled to Washington for a Monday night game and emerged with the 33-27 victory. That puts Washington in a revenge spot here, and it was also at this time last season that the Redskins were an identical 3-6 like they are now and they went on to run the table. On top of that, the Eagles are inexplicably 0-4 here at home this season compared to 5-1 on the road after beating the Packers 27-13 in Green Bay last Sunday. However, none of that matters because the Redskins do not seem better equipped to stop the Philadelphia fast-break offense now than they were on Kickoff Weekend, when the Eagles amassed 443 total yards including 263 on the ground. A case can be made that Philadelphia is more balanced offensively now than it was with Michael Vick at the helm then the way Nick Foles has thrown the ball the last couple of weeks, and the Redskins are ranked 27th in the NFL in total defense and second to last in scoring defense permitting 31.9 points per game. We do not see how the Skins can slow down both Foles through the air and LeSean McCoy on the ground, so look for Philadelphia to complete the season sweep rather emphatically for its elusive first home win of the Chip Kelly regime.


Baltimore Ravens +2½ (+107) over Chicago Bears: Both of these teams are still in their division races despite mediocre records, as the defending Super Bowl Champion Ravens are 4-5 but only one game behind the first place Cincinnati Bengals in the loss column in the AFC North, while the Bears are 5-4 and one game behind the Detroit Lions in the NFC North. We like the defending champs to get a much needed win that could very well save their season here though for a couple of reasons. For one thing, the Ravens are second in the NFL in sacks and we think that the biggest mismatch of this game is that Baltimore defensive line vs. the mainly inept Chicago offensive line. Besides getting Jay Cutler killed every week, ultimately resulting in his injury that now has Josh McCown starting under center, the Chicago line also broke down in run protection last week as the Bears produced a mere 38 rushing yards on 20 carries in a 21-19 home loss to the Lions. Secondly, what has to this point been a non-existent Baltimore running game with Ray Rice averaging 2.5 yards per carry and Bernard Pierce averaging 2.8 actually has a chance to have a revival of sorts vs. a Bears’ rushing defense that ranks second to last in the NFL against the run and that is allowing a dreadful 159.5 rushing yards per game the last four games.


Cleveland Browns +6 (+100) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Browns are looking to complete a season sweep of the Bengals here after winning at home vs. Cincinnati 17-6 in the first meeting. Yes the Bengals have played much better at home than on the road, in fact going a perfect 4-0 at Paul Brown Stadium, but the perhaps the biggest reason that the Browns upset the Bengals the first time remains in place in the form of Joe Haden. Haden is one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the league and he won the first battle vs. perhaps the best wide receiver in the AFC, limiting A.J. Green to 51 receiving yards on seven catches, the primary reason why Cincinnati quarterback completed only 23-of-42 passes for 206 yards in that contest. The venue may be different, but look for Haden to again shadow Green’s every move. Also, it is not a coincidence that the Browns are now 4-1 in games not started by Brandon Weeden, and Cleveland has had two weeks to prepare for this as it was on a bye after beating the Ravens 24-18 two weeks ago. Jason Campbell passed for 262 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in that game before bruising his ribs, but he is well enough to take this start.


San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints ‘over’ 48 (-105): The Saints have been unstoppable at home this season where they are a perfect 5-0 both straight up and ATS while averaging 35.2 points per game. Yes, this could be there acid test vs. a great 49ers defense, but Drew Brees has already proven in the past that no defense can slow him down in the Superdome, and that includes what was probably a better San Francisco defense than this one last year, against whom he passed for 267 yards. He could probably surpass that figure here with the Saints offense now better than ever with Coach Sean Payton back calling the plays after being suspended last year, and while the 49ers are still ninth in passing defense this year, they have not been as dominant as last season due to the suspension of Aldon Smith and numerous defensive injuries. Now, Colin Kaepernick’s numbers are down from last year, but that could change here with Frank Gore potentially continuing his fine season vs. the 23rd ranked New Orleans rushing defense. That may force the Saints to add a defender in the box and open things up a bit for Kaepernick, who got one of his receivers back in Mario Manningham and may still have his favorite target in tight end Vernon Davis available after Davis suffered a mild concussion last week.


Green Bay Packers +4½ (-105) over New York Giants: Yes, the Packers are banged up and are down to third string quarterback Scott Tolzien, forcing them to sign the noodle-armed Matt Flynn as a backup this week. Still, Tolzien played well for the most part when forced into action early last week vs. the Philadelphia Eagles after Seneca Wallace went down, as he completed 24-of-39 passes for 280 yards. The Giants meanwhile have won three straight games since beginning the year at 0-6, but the two home wins during the streak came vs. the Vikings and Raiders, and the third win was at Philadelphia where the Eagles have yet to win a home game this season. This looks to us like a classic case of “buy low, sell high”, as the Packers would have been favored in this contest had it taken place three weeks ago, and now they are getting 4½ points, down from an opener of +6! We simply feel the Giants are overvalued in this spot so we are taking the points in a game where an outright upset would not be at all shocking, especially with the Packers now a bit desperate after falling to third place in the NFC North behind the Lions and Bears after applying tiebreakers.


comment here