NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 10 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, November 8, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Nov. 8, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 10, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers.

We have now arrived at Week 10 in a 2013 NFL season that continues to fly right by. We certainly do not want this season to end anytime soon as we are now 43-30, +11.50 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum! We hope that good fortune continues over the last eight weeks of the regular season as we will always be here offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks every single week.

We did lose our last play however with the Redskins in the game that kicked off this current week, as they blew a 27-14 lead in the third quarter and were upset 34-27 by the previously 1-7 Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football. At least ‘over’ players were happy with that contest as it sailed past the closing total of 48

Looking ahead to Sunday, we have four sides and one total for Week 10 with three underdogs and only one favorite comprising our sides. As has become our norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, November 10th
Philadelphia Eagles +1 (+102) over Green Bay Packers: This game could be a tale of two quarterbacks. In one corner, Nick Foles should be oozing with confidence after tying an NFL record with seven touchdown passes last week, completing a remarkable 22-of-28 passes overall for 406 yards and not a single interception vs. the Oakland Raiders, and he did all of that in three quarters! The Philadelphia running game did show up also with 128 rushing yards on 24 carries, but the passing of Foles will be the key for the Eagles’ offense here vs. a Green Bay pass defense ranked 20th in the NFL allowing 250.5 passing yards per game after making Josh McCown look like Joe Montana Monday night. In the other corner, we have Seneca Wallace filling in for an injured Aaron Rodgers, who is out a minimum of three weeks with a fractured clavicle on his left non-throwing side. Wallace was awful vs. the Bears, and certainly worse than his 11-of-19 passing line looks as he was hesitant and checked down quite a bit, throwing for only 119 yards and an interception vs. what had been a poor Chicago defense. The good news for Green Bay this year is that they now have a running game with Eddie Lacy to help weather the storm while Rodgers is out. However, the Eagles will almost undoubtedly put an extra man in the box in an attempt to shut down Lacy, basically daring Wallace to throw the ball, which might be an adventure.


Jacksonville Jaguars +13 (-109) over Tennessee Titans: Yes the Jaguars remain winless at 0-8 and perhaps their biggest playmaker Justin Blackmon has been suspended indefinitely by the NFL for drug use. Still, on a positive note, Jacksonville has had two weeks to prepare for this division rival following a 42-10 beatdown absorbed at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers in London, and while the Titans seem to be improved this season, have they really done enough to be favored by this much over anyone, let alone in a division game? Tennessee is 4-4 thanks to a nice turnover differential, and it ranks only 24th in the NFL in total offense and 20th in scoring with 21.6 points per game. Chris Johnson had his best game of the season vs. the Rams last week rushing for 150 yards, and the Titans still only prevailed by seven points. The Tennessee defense can be run on as it ranks only 26th vs. the rush yielding 122.5 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. That could allow the Jaguars to hang around a bit by moving the chains with the running of Maurice Jones-Drew, who actually ran for a season-high 75 yards vs. the tough San Francisco defense and is now facing a run defense he could do even better against.


San Francisco 49ers -6 (+101) over Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have played as well as any team in football over the past month, rattling of four straight wins following a 1-3 start with the smallest winning margin in the four wins being 15 points. However, to put things in perspective, those wins came over the Vikings, Rams, Buccaneers and Falcons, and even the fifth Carolina win early in the year was vs. the Giants. Thus, it is difficult to gauge the legitimacy of the Panthers ranking third in the NFL in total defense and second in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game. This is Carolina’s acid test and we see the revived 49ers knocking the Panthers down a peg now that San Francisco is starting to resemble the Super Bowl favorite it was before the season. The Niners have won five straight games after inexplicably not running the ball much in their first three games, resulting in a 1-2 start. However, they are 5-0 since going back to their bread and butter, and suddenly they now lead the NFL in rushing with 153.0 yards per game, led by Frank Gore and his 618 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry. Also, the Niners are getting healthier on defense, which is bad news for the rest of the league as they are sixth in the NFL in total defense and fourth in scoring defense allowing 18.1 points per game despite nursing quite a few injuries on the defensive side to this point, and they come off a bye week, giving them two weeks to prepare for a pedestrian Carolina offense ranked 20th.


Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals ‘over’ 41½ (-101): Houston running back Arian Foster has officially been ruled out for the game, and perhaps far beyond that if he opts for back surgery, meaning that the lead running duties will now fall upon Ben Tate, who himself is playing with four cracked ribs. However, that may actually lead to more scoring here as quarterback Case Keenum has looked great in his first two NFL starts, passing for 621 yards and four touchdowns without an interception while garnering a 118.0 passer rating. The disappointing Texans are not going anywhere this year as they have lost six straight games since an 0-2 start, so look for them to allow Keenum to air the ball out early and often while continuing to take a prolonged look at their quarterback of the future. The Cardinals are averaging 24.0 points per game at home this season compared to 16.0 points on the road, and they have actually scored at least 20 points in four straight games after struggling offensively early on. It helps that Arizona may have discovered a running game, with Andre Ellington rushing for 154 yards last week and normal starter Rashard Mendenhall returning this week. That has allowed quarterback Carson Palmer to be more efficient, such as when he completed 13-of-18 passes with two touchdown passes last week.


Dallas Cowboys +6.5 (-108) over New Orleans Saints: The Cowboys are getting healthy again as DeMarcus Ware makes his return this week after DeMarco Murray came back last week, and although Dallas is 5-4, two of those losses were by one point and one was by three points to the Denver Broncos on the final play of the game, making these points look very attractive. Because the Cowboys have not been blown out, they have the best ATS record in the NFL at 7-2! The Saints on the other hand are heading in the wrong direction following a 5-0 start, losing two of their last three games including getting upset 26-20 by the New York Jets last week. Sure, Drew Brees has been, well, Drew Brees, but the Saints are just 26th in the league in rushing offense at 79.8 yards per game, and Ware’s return for Dallas does not bode well for Brees with the Cowboys expecting him to throw on nearly every play. On top of this, Brees’s favorite target, tight end Jimmy Graham, is playing through a painful foot injury and two of his other targets, wide receiver Marques Colston and running back Darren Sproles, are both questionable for this contest. Finally, while the New Orleans defense is improved from previous years, the Saints are still just 25th vs. the run at 121.2 yards per game, so Murray could look like his old usual self, allowing Dallas to control the clock.


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