NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 1 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, September 6, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 6, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 1, highlighted by the late afternoon Packers at 49ers playoff rematch.

Well, perhaps the most exciting weekend of the entire year has arrived as it is opening week of the 2013 NFL season, and once again we will be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

The season actually kicked of on Thursday night with Peyton Manning tying an NFL record with seven touchdown passes in an easy 49-27 win by the Denver Broncos over the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. The Broncos ended up going ‘over’ the closing total of 48½ all by themselves while covering as 7½-point favorites.

Week 1 of this 2013 season is an unusual one for us as we are going with five favorites, which is something we have rarely if ever done in the past. Obviously that also means that we have no totals this week, which is also out of the ordinary. As has become our norm however, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, September 8th
Kansas City Chiefs -3½ (-107) over Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars had one of the biggest personnel turnovers of any NFL team during the off-season, as only 27 players on their current active roster finished the season with the team last year, which makes sense considering how awful they were in 2012. Still, this team is certainly work-in-progress that figures to lean heavily on the diminutive but ultra talented Maurice Jones-Drew, especially with wide receiver Justin Blackmon suspended for the first four games. On top of this, Blaine Gabbert was named the starting quarterback during preseason but he has been limited by a thumb injury in practice all week and could be a game-time decision, with Chad Henne waiting in the wings just in case. The Chiefs did not make as many changes on the field, but one they did make was finally bringing in an NFL caliber quarterback in Alex Smith, and of course the biggest move they made off the field was the hiring of head coach Andy Reid. Kansas City finished an NFL-worst 2-14 last season and yet has six representatives in the Pro Bowl, as this team was competitive for the most part but held back by horrific quarterback play. Smith is a substantial upgrade there and Reid has a game plan to get the most out of running back Jamaal Charles and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, so look for the Chiefs’ improvement to begin right away with a safe road win.


Seattle Seahawks -3½ (+105) over Carolina Panthers: The Seahawks seemed destined to be in the NFC Championship Game last season when they took the lead in the final minute of their divisional playoff game vs. the Atlanta Falcons, only to have the vaunted Seattle defense allow the Falcons to quickly move into field goal range on two plays to break the hearts of the Emerald City. Expectations are naturally high this season and deservedly so as we do not feel that a Super Bowl run is impossible, but first things first as the Seahawks must play more consistently on the road as it is no secret that they have probably the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. And to that end, this seems like a winnable road game to kick things off. The Carolina offense did not look good during the preseason and the mediocre at best DeAngelo Williams begins the year as the Panthers’ feature running back with James Stewart out for at least the first six weeks and possibly for the entire season with injuries to both ankles. The Seahawks are easily good enough defensively to shut Williams down with minimal effort so that they can focus their attention almost entirely on Cam Newton. Now, Newton obviously has the elusiveness to escape the Seattle pass rush, but the Seahawks have one of the fastest defenses in the league so Newton may not pick up as much on his scampers as he normally does. Meanwhile the Seahawks are more versatile on offense and should get their Super Bowl quest off to a nice start.


Detroit Lions -5 (+101) over Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings were a surprising entrant to the NFL Playoffs last season, riding the coattails of a phenomenal season by Adrian Peterson less than one year after tearing his ACL, while the team that was supposed to be the playoff contender before the season, the Lions, was an undisciplined team in disarray while losing its last eight games to finish at 4-12. We look for a reversal of fortunes for both teams relative to 2012, at least in this season opener. The Lions seem to be in a classic “buy low” mode this season as this is a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, led of course by the unquestioned best receiver in football in Calvin Johnson, and if this club can get out of its own way by not committing as many stupid penalties and withstand some questionable coaching decisions by Coach Jim Schwartz, and can be a playoff contender this year. The Vikings on the other hand were not as good as their record last season and Peterson does not have very much support on offense. Christian Ponder has yet to prove he can be a consistently good NFL quarterback, and while Greg Jennings is a nice addition to the receiving corps, that group as a whole is below average. So expect to see heavy doses of Peterson again, which is not really a bad thing as he can win close games by himself. The rub there though is that Minnesota is not a good come-from-behind team and the Lions are capable of establishing a lead here with Megatron going up against an inexperienced Vikings’ secondary.


San Francisco 49ers -4½ (-106) over Green Bay Packers: These teams are becoming very familiar with each other as they opened up the season against each other last year also in Green Bay and then faced off in the NFL Playoffs here in San Francisco. The 49ers won both of those matchups easily and as much respect as we have for Aaron Rodgers, we would not be at all surprised by a similar outcome this week. Some of the parties have changed, as 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree could be out for the year with a torn Achilles tendon but was promptly replaced by Anquan Boldin, and the Packers may actually have a running game this year thanks to rookie Eddie Lacy from Alabama. In the end though, we feel the Packers’ inability to contain Colin Kaepernick will be their death blow here. After Alex Smith beat Green Bay in the regular season meeting, Kaepernick had a game for the ages in the playoff meeting as he set an NFL quarterback rushing record with 181 yards to go along with 263 passing yards, accounting for four all-purpose touchdowns. The Packers no doubt watched countless hours of film of that game during the off-season, but unfortunately they bring back essentially the same players on defense. One approach could be to utilize Lacy often immediately on offense in an attempt to keep the San Francisco offense on the sideline, but the 49ers have had one of the best rushing defenses in the league the last few years, so do not look for big numbers from Lacy in his debut.


Dallas Cowboys -3½ (-101) over New York Giants: One of the oddities of this head-to-head series is that ever since the newly named AT&T Stadium opened up as Cowboys Stadium, the visiting Giants are a perfect 4-0 here in Arlington. We think that streak ends here! The Giants have a nice passing game with Eli Manning at quarterback and an excellent receiving corps led by Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, but the preseason injury to running back Andre Brown means that David Wilson instantly becomes the every-down back. Now Wilson certainly has a world of potential after averaging 5.0 yards on his 71 carries last season, but the Giants have never trusted him on third downs before and he could potentially wear down late in games. If the Giants start becoming a one-dimensional passing team, Dallas has one of the better cornerback tandems in the league in Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr, and the entire starting Cowboy defense looked good during the preseason while grasping the 4-3 defensive principles of new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. Offense was not a problem for Dallas last year as the oft maligned Tony Romo continued to put up great passing stats, particularly with the development of Dez Bryant into one of the elite receivers in the NFL. Perhaps most importantly for the Cowboys though is that running DeMarco Murray is healthy again, and he gives them the offensive balance that they lacked after he went down last year.


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