NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 9

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, November 1, 2014 12:02 AM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014 12:02 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll on Week 9, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks.


Well, we broke exactly even over all of our Sunday plays in Week 8, but treading water is fine considering we are still having a nice 2014 NFL season at 44-33, 57.1%, +10.61 YTD as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum. Still, we hope for a better week this time around as we return one again with our usual Friday 5-Pack of NFL picks for Sunday of Week 9.

This week began on Thursday night with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints posting their first road win of the season 28-10 over the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte. Believe it or not, that victory leaves New Orleans in first place in a watered down NFC South with a 4-4 record, as the rest of the division is below .500. And the 38 total points scored produced a rare Thursday ‘under’ this season with the total closing at 48½, as the ‘over’ went 7-1 the first eight weeks.

So now it is time to move on to Sunday where this week we are our usual contrarian selves, as we have four sides that are all underdogs and one total that is an ‘under’. And as has become our custom, all of these NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, November 2nd
San Diego Chargers +2½ (-101) over Miami Dolphins (1:00 ET):
The Chargers are on an 0-3 ATS skid and have lost their last two games straight up after going 5-0 ATS and 4-1 straight up the first five games, but they did not play poorly in a deceptive 35-21 loss to the Broncos in Denver that was aided by some help from the referees, as at the very least San Diego should have been the right side ATS and covered the +9. But it was not to be, although that result could be skewing this line a bit as Miami does not have nearly the home field advantage that Denver does, and remember that the Chargers have had extra preparation time for this game after playing on Thursday last week. Also note that shutdown cornerback Brandon Flowers missed that game with a concussion and will probably be back this week, most likely with the task of shadowing Mike Wallace. The Dolphins opened up the season with a home win over Tom Brady and the Patriots, but they have not won in South Beach since then losing to the Chiefs and the Packers. Yes quarterback Ryan Tannehill is quietly having a nice season, but his options may be limited if Flowers takes away Wallace as expected. And the Chargers are a very respectable 10th in the NFL in total defense allowing 330.0 yards per game while ranking fourth in points allowed at 18.6.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10½ (-116) over Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 ET): The Jaguars won their first game of the season two weeks ago vs. the surprising Cleveland Browns before losing 27-13 to the Dolphins last week, but that would have been an entirely different game if Miami did not return two interceptions thrown by Blake Bortles for touchdowns. In fact the Jaguars surprisingly dominated that game in most areas and even won the yardage battle, as Bortles passed for 221 yards when he threw to the right uniform and Denard Robinson rushed for 108 yards on 18 carries. Bortles panicked a few times vs. a ferocious Miami pass rush leading to the picks, but the Bengals have not been putting much pressure on the quarterback as of late. Also Robinson will be running against a Cincinnati run defense allowing a high 4.7 yards per carry. From a Cincinnati perspective, this is a terrible scheduling spot as the Bengals come off of a big emotional upset win inside the division vs. the Baltimore Ravens last week and they have another division game vs. those Browns coming up in just four days on Thursday night. Moreover the Bengals could be missing two key players due to injury in running back Giovani Bernard and linebacker Vontaze Burfict.

Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings ‘under’ 43½ (-110) (1:00 ET): Third-string quarterback Colt McCoy led the Redskins to a 20-17 overtime road upset of the Dallas Cowboys Monday night while completing an amazing 25-of-30 passes for 299 yards. So what is his reward? Well, all indications are that he will be back to riding the bench this week as Robert Griffin III makes his first start since breaking his ankle way back in Week 2. Now Griffin looked good warming up before that Monday night game and Coach Jay Gruden has been saying all along that he would only start Griffin here if he is 100 percent, so he must now be fully healthy. That is all well and good except that RG3 struggled in the game-and-a-half in which he played this year as the Redskins are trying to turn him into something that he really isn’t with that being more of a pocket passer while trying to get him to cut down on what he does best, which is improvisational running. That does not sound like a recipe for success vs. an underrated Minnesota defense. And that defense was the reason the Viking won last week as they returned a fumble for a touchdown on the very first play of overtime to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-13. The offense produced just 332 total yards though as Teddy Bridgewater was not very accurate completing 24-of-42 passes. The Vikings have now averaged just 12.0 points per game in their four games since Bridgewater’s amazing first NFL start vs. Atlanta.

New York Jets +9 (-110) over Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 ET): Yes, the Jets have lost seven straight games since beating the winless Oakland Raiders on Kickoff Weekend (and not covering) and Michael Vick, whose desire to become a starter was questioned during the preseason as he seemed content to be a back-up and just collect a check, now does take over as the starter for an ineffective Geno Smith. Believe it or not though, the news is not entirely bleak here for the J-E-T-S from New Jersey (despite the official franchise affiliation). You see, the Jets are simultaneously ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing offense and fifth in rushing defense, averaging 139.9 yards per game on the ground on an excellent 4.7 yards per carry while surrendering just 85.4 rushing yards on 3.3 YPC! The Jets have outrushed six of their eight opponents this season including outrushing the New England Patriots by 155 yards two games ago and the Buffalo Bills by 108 yards last week, and that almost always makes them look attractive as decided underdogs. Getting close to double-digits here fits that bill. Now the Chiefs have been playing very good football since their opening week stinker here at home vs. the now 2-6 Tennessee Titans, as they are 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS since then, but this is a team with mostly a conservative offense coming off of an atypical 34-7 blowout of the struggling St. Louis Rams last week, which would make it very simple to look past this last-place team.

Oakland Raiders +14½ (-110) over Seattle Seahawks (4:25 ET): First of all, there is very little doubt that the Seahawks are the better team here against the winless Raiders and that the defending Super Bowl Champions will in all likelihood leave the field with the win. However, we are talking about giving more than two touchdowns here, and remember that Seattle scored just 13 total points last week vs. a Carolina defense that has struggled in most of its other games this year without the suspended Greg Hardy, and that was not the first time Seattle has underperformed in recent weeks. In fact the Seahawks could very easily be on a three-game losing streak right now as their narrow 13-9 escape in Carolina was preceded by a loss to the Cowboys here at home, where Seattle almost never loses, and a road loss vs. the otherwise struggling St. Louis Rams. Yes the Raiders are awful but at least they have been much more competitive since Tony Sparano took over as head coach three games ago and the Oakland run defense has been especially impressive in those games under Sparano allowing only 92.7 rushing yards per game on just 2.9 yards per carry, which is important vs. the run-heavy Seattle offense.

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