NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 7

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, October 23, 2015 10:18 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 10:18 PM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for Week 7 to help build your bankroll, starting with the morning game in London and ending with the Cowboys visiting the Giants at 4:25 ET.


To say that Week 6 was a week we would like to forget would be an understatement, especially after going a woeful 3-12 on our huge Sunday card of NFL picks as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum. Remember though that we have prospered in the NFL in past years including going 79-57-2, 58.1 percent, +21.50 units last season. Hopefully we will return to that form the rest of the way as we are back now with another 5-Pack of Sunday plays for Week 7.


As usual, this week began with Thursday Night Football, and the chalk prevailed as the Seattle Seahawks saved their season for the time being and improved to 3-4 with an easy 20-3 win over the San Francisco 49ers as 6½-point road favorites in an NFC West battle. That final point output easily stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 42.

But now we move on to Sunday, where our 5-Pack this week is comprised of three sides and two totals. And we are sticking to our natural contrarian nature across the board this time around as we have three underdogs and two ‘unders’. As has become our custom in recent years, all of these NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.


Sunday, October 25th
Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars ‘under’ 41 (-103) (9:30 AM ET):
The NFL invaded London, England for the second time this season, which means that fans on the West Coast need to set their alarms here with this game kicking off at 6:30am PT. The Bills were off to an encouraging start this year, but they now have an offense that has been decimated with injuries as quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receivers Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin and right tackle Seantrel Henderson are all expected to miss this game! Luckily they are facing one of the best “slump busters” in the NFL in the 1-5 Jaguars, but it still figures to be a conservative game plan with heavy doses of running back LeSean McCoy, who himself is a bit banged up but he is apparently still the healthiest Buffalo offensive skill position player. Luckily that injury bug has avoided the defense for the most part with the exception of Kyle Williams, so the rest of that stout Bills front seven could terrorize the poor Jacksonville offensive line and make life miserable for Blake Bortles. The good news for the Jaguars is it now looks like T.J. Yeldon will suit up, so he could receive a heavy running load to help slow down that Bills’ pass rush. Thus, both teams will probably run a lot of clock, which would obviously be conducive to an ‘under’.

Cleveland Browns +6½ (-107) over St. Louis Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams may now have the hottest running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley, who is already over 300 rushing yards despite not making his NFL debut until three games ago, and they will now probably go conservative the rest of the year by feeding their workhorse running back early and often, taking the pressure off of struggling quarterback Nick Foles. While we agree that is a smart approach, it also makes it difficult to trust the offense when giving nearly a touchdown as the Rams are being asked to do here. Besides, St. Louis has now scored 10 points or less in three of the last four games and the Rams have averaged a mere 12.5 points per game since upsetting the Seahawks back on Kickoff Weekend. The Browns played good enough to beat the still undefeated Denver Broncos last week but ended up losing 26-23 in overtime. That actually marked the second straight overtime game for the Browns with the previous one ending happily with a 33-30 win at Baltimore, and Cleveland probably should have been in three straight overtime games as the Browns were tied with the Chargers 27-27 in the final seconds three weeks ago when San Diego kicker Josh Lambo missed a field goal, but was then given a second chance due to a penalty and made it to beat the Browns 30-27. Just that penchant for playing tight games could be enough to take the 6½ with Cleveland here.



New York Jets, New England Patriots ‘under’ 48 (-105) (1:00 ET): Just about no team in the NFL has defended Tom Brady and the Patriots as well as the Jets have, and although Rex Ryan is now gone and has been replaced by Todd Bowles, New York still has an elite defense leading the NFL in both fewest points allowed at 15.0 per game and in total defense allowing just 269.2 yards per contest. And the Jet defense has no weaknesses, ranking an identical second both vs. the run and vs. the pass. The Patriots are taking no prisoners to this point while leading the NFL in scoring with 36.6 points per game, but besides the old adage of “Good defense stops good offense” applying here, New England is also more vulnerable than usual with three offensive linemen questionable this week, which cannot make Brady feel too comfortable. So we may not see a typical Patriots’ offense his week, and the Jets figure to employ a ball control offense led by the red-hot Chris Ivory, who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry this year and is a key reason why New York also leads the NFL in rushing offense with 146.0 yards per game. Great defense and a run oriented offense are key reasons why the ‘under’ is 9-4 in the Jets’ last 13 games.



New Orleans Saints +4 (-105) over Indianapolis Colts (1:00 ET): The New Orleans Saints may have saved their season when they knocked off the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons 31-21 last week, and with that game being on Thursday night, they have also had a few extra days of preparation time to find ways to attack a shaky 29th ranked Indianapolis defense. Most notably, he Colts are 28th against the pass allowing 289.2 passing yards per game, which is great news for Drew Brees, who has lucked more like the Brees of old since returning from his shoulder injury. Yes, Brees and the Saints have historically not performed as well on the road, but most of those road woes have been outdoors on grass, which obviously does not apply here at indoor Lucas Oil Stadium. Of course, Andrew Luck also looked great in his first game back after missing two games with a shoulder injury himself, passing for a season-high 312 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and the Saints rank 24th defending the pass. However, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Colts playing a non-conference game following that emotional battle vs. Tom Brady and the undefeated Patriots last Sunday night, so we may see a bit of an Indianapolis letdown here.


Dallas Cowboys +3½ (-114) over New York Giants (4:25 ET): Like many NFC East divisional series, this one has been dominated by the underdogs as they are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings, and the Cowboys are even 4-2 straight up in their last six trips to East Rutherford. Dallas has also had two weeks to prepare for this contest following a welcome bye week that followed a three-game losing streak after a 2-0 start, which also means that Matt Cassel has had two weeks to prepare as he takes over at quarterback in place of the ineffective Brandon Weeden while the Cowboys await the return of Tony Romo. The good news is that Cassel will be throwing against a Giants’ team that is ranked second to last in the NFL in passing defense surrendering 298.5 yards per game through the air, ahead of only the Oakland Raiders (299.2). While the Cowboys come off a bye, the Giants are playing on a short week following an ugly performance on Monday Night Football where they scored first and then allowed 27 unanswered points in the 27-7 loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia. New York has a beat up receiving corps right now and Eli Manning did not look good force-feeding that group the ball Monday, completing 24-of-38 passes for only 189 yards with three interceptions.


comment here