Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for Week 6 to help build your bankroll, highlighted by the Sunday Night Football contest as the Patriots try to stay undefeated visiting the Colts.
After it had appeared we turned the corner with our NFL picks with back-to-back winning weeks, we slumped to 3-6 across all of our plays in Week 5 and we started Week 6 on a sour note Thursday due to bad timing (more on that in a bit), leaving us at back in the red at 25-26-1 for -1.86 units YTD as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum. This is after a great 2014 where we went 79-57-2, 58.1 percent, +21.50 units.
Hopefully, we are now ready to regain that form as we are back again as we are every Friday with our weekly 5-Pack of Sunday plays for Week 6.
This week began with an upset on Thursday Night Football with the New Orleans Saints knocking the Atlanta Falcons from the ranks of the unbeaten with a 31-21 win as three-point underdogs. That final total output was officially a ‘push’ against the closing total of 52, but the bad timing that we alluded to earlier was that we backed the ‘under’ a bit early at 51½ and thus lost by the half-point.
Unfazed by that misfortune, we now move on to Sunday, where our 5-Pack this week is comprised of three sides and two totals. The sides are made up of two underdogs and one favorite, while both of our totals are ‘under’ plays. As has become our norm in recent years, all of these NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.
Sunday, October 18th
Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills ‘under’ 42 (+100) (1:00 ET): The Bengals with try to avoid a similar fate as the Falcons on Thursday as Cincinnati also finds itself undefeated at 5-0 while going on the road, except on paper at least the Bengals are visiting a much stronger defense. The Buffalo front seven as made life uncomfortable for opposing offenses all season long, but the issue here is on the offensive end. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been a nice surprise as a dual threat, as nobody ever doubted his athleticism or running ability, but he has been a much more accurate passer than anyone imagined. Unfortunately, Taylor sprained his MCL in a 14-13 road win at Tennessee last week, and he is now questionable but probably closer to doubtful for this game. If he cannot go, the Bills would need to go back E.J. Manuel at quarterback, and that is something that almost never ends well offensively. Granted the Bengals are second in the NFL in total offense with 421.4 yards game and fourth in scoring at 29.6 points, but Andy Dalton has not really faced the kind of pressure that he figures to be under here vs. the Buffalo defensive line, so we may go back to seeing the Dalton that was a turnover machine last year as opposed to the one having an amazing revival this season.
Kansas City Chiefs +3½ (-105) over Minnesota Vikings (1:00 ET): The Chiefs suffered a huge loss last week when they lost one of the best all around running backs in the NFL in Jamaal Charles for the season to a torn ACL, and considering that Charles is 29 year old, we may sadly never see him at he best again. Kansas City had a 17-3 lead, but they failed to score a single point after Charles went down vs. the lowly Chicago Bears and ended up getting upset at home 18-17 as 10-point favorites to fall to 1-4. However, we cannot help but wonder if this line is an over-adjustment as we are simply not sure the 2-2 Vikings are good enough to be giving more that a field goal, as this is still the same Minnesota team that was blown out by a bad 49ers team opening week and whose two wins came vs. the winless Lions and vs. an inconsistent Chargers team that has struggled on the road. Teddy Bridgewater seems to have regressed badly after a promising rookie year with just two touchdown passes and a low 84.5 QB Rating, helping leave the Vikings dead last in the NFL in passing offense with 165.2 yards per game through the air. The flipside of course is that Minnesota is second in the league in rushing thanks to boasting the great Adrian Peterson, but the Kansas City run defense is allowing only 98.6 rushing yards per game on just 3.8 yards per carry, and if the Chiefs can at least contain Peterson, they may very well pull an upset while in desperation mode to save their season.
Miami Dolphins +1 (-103) over Tennessee Titans (1:00 ET): The inevitable has now happened as the Dolphins cleaned house during their bye week, firing head coach Joe Philbin and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle following another embarrassing performance in a 27-14 loss to the Jets in London two weeks ago that was nowhere near as close as that score made it appear, as the Dolphins allowed New York to gain 425 total yards while managing only 226 yards themselves. That came on the heels of a 41-14 home loss to the Buffalo Bills the previous week. Miami has now lost three straight games since narrowly beating the Washington Redskins 17-10 on Kickoff Weekend, and remember that this is a team that was considered a playoff candidate before the year. So will the coaching change and the bye week now propel the underachieving Dolphins to begin a belated playoff push? Maybe, maybe not, but they certainly appear to have a winnable game coming out of their bye in pursuit of that quest. The Tennessee Titans opened up the year with a 42-14 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Marcus Mariota was already being forecast for the Rookie of the Year Award after one game. However, Tennessee has not won a game since and facing the Titans’ 23rd ranked rushing defense could be just what Miami running back Lamar Miller needs to get on track, especially with two weeks to prepare, and a successful running game could also help Ryan Tannehill re-discover his good 2014 passing form.
Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks ‘under’ 40½ (-107) (4:05 ET): The Panthers are another undefeated team and also another team coming off a bye week, meaning that they are 4-0. They are also very well aware of the Atlanta loss on Thursday, meaning that a win here would move Carolina to first place in the NFC South. The Panthers are winning with defense as they rank fourth in the NFL in points against at 17.8 per game and 10th in total defense at 339.0 yards per contest, and that defense should only get better here thanks to the return of former Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly after he missed the last three games with a concussion. The Carolina front seven could have a big game vs. the still struggling offensive line of the Seahawks. Seattle has looked nothing like a two-time defending NFC Champion while going 2-3, but the Seahawks do get running back Marshawn Lynch back here and that could help them do a better job of ball control as “Beast Mode” is more adept at making his own holes when the line does not provide one for him. Also the defense had looked better since the return of Cam Chancellor until melting down vs. the Bengals last week, but that unit should bounce back with Carolina ranking just 25th in total offense with 322 yards per game.
New England Patriots -7½ (-108) over Indianapolis Colts (8:30 ET): Our first four selections so far have been right in line with our normal contrarian nature, but for the second straight week we are breaking that mold with a fairly big road favorite, and for the second straight week that team is the Patriots, for whom many of the usual rules of betting simply do not apply! The Patriots are probably coming off of their worst game of the season last week, and yet the end result was still a 30-6 road win over the Dallas Cowboys as an eight-point favorite. The unbeaten Patriots have scored the most points in the AFC with 149, a feat made more remarkable by the fact that they have already had their bye week and thus have done that in four games. Their 37.2 points per game is second in the NFL, barely trailing the Arizona Cardinals of the NFC (38.0), as it appears the whole Deflategate scandal has only motivated Tom Brady to raise his game to new heights, much like Spygate drove New England to an undefeated regular season a few years ago. The Colts are expected to get Andrew Luck back for this game, but he has not fared well in head-to-head meetings with Brady in the past and those were with seemingly better Indianapolis teams than this one, which is 3-2 but had been 0-4 ATS until finally covering in a win in Houston last week with Matt Hasselbeck under center.