NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 17

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, December 26, 2014 8:24 PM GMT

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for this weekend to build your bankroll on Week 17, highlighted by the last Sunday Night Football game this year between the Bengals and Steelers.

 

 

Our dream 2014 NFL season continued last week as we went 4-2-1 across the entre weekend, and we are now over the magical 60 percent mark after 126 decisions at 76-50-2, 60.3%, +25.83 YTD as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum! We are sad to see the regular season come to an end this week but let us try and go out with a bang as we are back again with sadly our final Friday 5-Pack of NFL picks for Week 17.

Our year will obviously not be over though as we will still be here during the playoffs with plays on every single playoff game! Also note that there was no Thursday Nigh Football game this week nor will there be any Monday Night Football, as all 32 NFL teams this final week of the regular season will be in actions on Sunday, as once again the league has made a concerted attempt to have all correlated games in regards to playoff positioning played simultaneously.

So moving on to Sunday, we have a little bit of everything this week with four sides split between two favorites and two underdogs, as well as one total which happens to be an ‘under’. So without further ado, here are our five Sunday selections for Week 17, the final weekend of the regular season, with all of these NFL odds coming from Pinnacle Sports, as has become our custom.


Sunday, December 28th
San Diego Chargers +1 (-105) over Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 ET):
The Chargers are the one AFC team that controls its wild card destiny, as a win here would clinch the six-seed and make all of the AFC Playoff participants known with only the AFC North left to be decided (with loser of Bengals vs. Steelers still in as the five-seed). Granted the Chiefs are also still in the mix for that six-seed, although they would still need help even with a win, and Kansas City can be a brutal venue for visiting teams. However, Christmas may have come one day late for the Chargers as it was announced Friday that Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith is out for this game with a lacerated spleen, and that the inexperienced Chase Daniel from Missouri will get the start. Daniel has attempted just one pass this season which was incomplete and he has one touchdown pass in 48 career NFL attempts, none of which were made in pressurized games like this one. Thus expect heavy doses of running back Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs, which is not necessarily a bad thing as he is one of the best backs in football and the Chargers are just 28th in the NFL in rushing defense. However, the San Diego run defense could show improvement here by putting an extra player in the box until Daniel proves that he is capable of making the Chargers pay with his arm. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers may be beat up physically for the Chargers but he may have had his best half of football this year in the second half last week vs. the 49ers in San Francisco when the Chargers needed him the most, rallying his troops from a 28-7 halftime deficit to an exhilarating 38-35 overtime win that has San Diego on the cusp of the playoffs.

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New York Giants -2½ (-109) over Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 ET): Neither of these teams is going to the playoffs, but they do seem to be heading in opposite directions and we are looking for the Giants to end the season on a high note while the Eagles complete their collapse. Technically that Philadelphia collapse was completed once the Dallas Cowboys beat Indianapolis last week, as that victory clinched the NFC East for the Cowboys and eliminated Philadelphia from the playoffs. And just think that it was the Eagles that were sitting pretty in first place at 9-3 after beating those Cowboys easily 33-10 on the road in Arlington on Thanksgiving Day. Unfortunately for the City of Brotherly Love, the Eagles have not won a game since, first losing back-to-back homes games to the Seattle Seahawks and then to Dallas in the rematch, and then came the costliest loss of all at Washington last week to a Redskins’ team that entered that contest with a 3-11 record! Meanwhile the Giants’ long time head coach Tom Coughlin may have been worried about his job security when New York was sitting at 3-9, but seemingly out of the blue the G-Men have reeled off three straight impressive wins, most recently scoring 37 points last week vs. a St. Louis Rams’ defense that had gone three straight games without allowing a touchdown and that had allowed a grand total of 46 points in its previous five games!

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Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins ‘under’ 49 (-105) (1:00 ET): In the immortal words of former Dallas Coach Jimmy Johnson, “How bout dem Cowboys!” Dallas is finally back in the playoffs as the NFC East Champion following a 42-7 home demolition of the Indianapolis Colts last week in a game where the Cowboys were up 28-0 before the Colts even recorded a first down! And now the Cowboys have a rare chance to finish undefeated on the road at 8-0 if they can win here in Washington over a Redskins’ team that helped hated Dallas clinch the division by upsetting the Eagles last Saturday. However, barring a highly unlikely tied game between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers, Dallas is locked into the third seed in the NFC and that should mean pulling the starters early in this contest. Also, the Redskins played with some rare emotion in the spoiler role vs. Philadelphia, and while the Cowboys are their most hated rivals, we do not think that Washington will match that emption here in what in reality is nothing more than a glorified exhibition game. And remember that even while beating the Eagles, the Redskins were still out-gained by 190 total yards. With the Cowboys more than likely having their subs in the game in the second half and with the Redskins having their usual offensive woes, look for a lower scoring game than this total suggests.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-109) over New Orleans Saints (1:00 ET): Most of the publicity surrounding this game has centered around the Buccaneers’ clinching the number one pick in the 2015 NFL Draft with a loss. While that is certainly true, we are not so sure that Tampa Bay cares if it goes first or second in the draft because if Marcus Mariota goes number one as expected, the Buccaneers would be quite content to take Jameis Winston number two and keeping him in the state of Florida, which would probably boost ticket sales. So if you ignore the draft ramifications, then it is the Saints that should be the more despondent team here and that should gave value to Tampa Bay getting more than a field goal at home as it looks to avoid going 0-8 at Raymond James Stadium for the season. You see, the Saints were still favored to win the NFC South heading into this past weekend, when they were heavily favored at home over the Atlanta Falcons in a spot where a win would have meant playing to clinch the division vs. the lowly Bucs here. Instead the ugly New Orleans defense, which went from second in the entire NFL in total defense last season to second to last this year allowing 390.9 yards per game, reared its ugly head again in a 30-14 upset loss that eliminated New Orleans from playoff contention, as we simply do not see how the Saints can get motivated for this game. Remember also that the best Tampa Bay offensive performance of the season came vs. this pitiful Saints’ defense in a 37-31 overtime loss in New Orleans.

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Pittsburgh Steelers -3½ (-101) over Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 ET): With NBC opting to flex this game to Sunday Night Football for Week 17, this battle for the AFC North Division become the final regular season game of a 2014 NFL season that seemingly just flew by. Unlike other recent Week 17 night games though that were really pseudo playoff games with the winner going to the post-season and the loser going home, such is not the case here with both teams assured playoff berths. Still, it is obviously more advantageous to win the division and get at least one playoff home game, and besides enjoying home field this time around after going on the road to Cincinnati and routing the Bengals 42-21 in Week 14, we simply feel that the Steelers are the better football team right now despite trailing the Bengals by one-half game coming in and we expect a handy Pittsburgh victory here giving the Steelers the deserved division crown. After all we have felt that the Bengals were overrated for much of this season as Andy Dalton seems to be going backwards as an NFL quarterback and Cincinnati is only 22nd in total defense with no pass rush, ranking dead last in the NFL in sacks with 20. Thus the Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown connection should have a field day like the first meeting when Brown caught nine passes for 117 yards, and that was in addition to Martavis Bryant adding 109 receiving yards and Le’Veon Bell adding a gaudy 185 rushing yards.


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