NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 16

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, December 26, 2015 5:33 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 26, 2015 5:33 PM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for Week 16 to help build your bankroll Sunday highlighted by the red-hot Green Bay Packers visiting the NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals.


Well, we are down to two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season and the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. In the AFC, three teams appear in and the AFC South winner will make four, leaving the Chiefs, Jets and Steelers fighting for two spots. In the NFC, it looks like five teams are already in with only the NFC East title left to be decided. And we are back again with another 5-Pack of NFL picks for Week 16 to help makes sense of it all.

Week 16 began with Thursday Night Football on Christmas Eve, and although the game had no playoff ramifications whatsoever, it may have been a nostalgic event when the home standing Oakland Raiders defeated the San Diego Chargers 23-20 in overtime in a matchup of two teams rumored to be moving to Los Angeles next season. The favored Raiders failed to cover the four-point spread though and the game stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 45 despite the overtime.

So now we move on to Sunday, where our 5-Pack this week is comprised entirely of sides. Not only that, but in keeping with our naturally contrarian nature, all five selections for this Week 16 are underdogs! As has become the norm for us in recent seasons, all of these NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.


Sunday, December 27th
Atlanta Falcons +6½ (-105) Over Carolina Panthers (1:00 ET)

Besides the unsettled playoff spots entering the last two weeks of this season, another point of intrigue is whether or not the currently 14-0 Panthers could finish off a perfect regular season (and beyond). And remember that the Panthers skunked the Falcons 38-0 when these teams met in Charlotte two short weeks ago. So is there any reason to expect a more competitive contest this week with the change in venue to Atlanta? Well, in a word, yes! For starters, the Falcons opened up as just seven-point underdogs for that game in Carolina before the line drifted and closed at 8½. Now, this line opened up with Atlanta being an identical +7 despite being at home this time, and sharp money recognized that line value to get this game off of that key number with the drop to +6½. But back to matters on the field, the Panthers have looked quite vulnerable in their last two road games, needing to rally late in both contests first to edge the New Orleans Saints 41-38 and then the New York Giants 38-35 last week after blowing a 35-7 third-quarter lead. The Falcons meanwhile recovered from the shellacking in Charlotte by snapping a six-game losing streak with a 23-17 mild upset of the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week. Add in the motivation of both revenge and wanting to spoil the Carolina perfect season while playing at home and look for the Falcons to leave everything on the field here as they go for the upset.

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San Francisco 49ers +10½ (-115) Over Detroit Lions (1:00 ET)
This is the only game we have this week that does not involve either a playoff team or a team fighting for the playoffs. Then again, the fact that this is a meaningless game in regards to the post-season is precisely the reason why getting double-digit points seems like very good value. Last week, the 49ers committed four turnovers and went 2-for-14 on third down conversion attempts, and yet somehow still lost by just 10 points 24-14 to a very good team in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Niners actually out-gained the Bengals by 76 total yards and when he was not throwing interceptions (three of them), Blaine Gabbert did pass for 295 yards. If the 49ers protect the ball better and convert more third downs, both doable, is there any reason why they cannot stay inside single-digits vs. this seemingly lesser opponent? We get that the Lions improved after they fired their offensive coordinator, but the Detroit playoff dreams ended with the Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown three weeks ago, as was evident by a loss at St. Louis the following week. Yes the Lions rebounded by beating the Saints 35-27 Monday night, but that was vs. the worst defense in the league while the 49ers at least continue to play hard on that side of the ball. Also, playing on a short week vs. a non-divisional opponent is not an ideal spot for Detroit either.

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New York Jets +3 (-105) Over New England Patriots (1:00 ET)
This is a humongous game for the 9-5 Jets, as a mild upset here would greatly enhance their playoff chances considering they then finish up the season with the struggling Buffalo Bills next week in a revenge spot. Conversely the Patriots have already clinched both the AFC East title and a first round bye, and Coach Bill Belichick has shown in the past that he does not care much about seeding, often resting starters even with the possibility of gaining a seed. No, he does not figure to rest anyone here, but we are mostly addressing a lack of motivation and urgency on the New England side. So will that big edge in motivation be enough to propel the Jets to a home win? Well, quite possibly! You see, back in Week 7 the Patriots were sitting at 5-0 and were continually blowing opponents away when the Jets went into Foxboro and gave New England what at that point was its stiffest test of the season. New York led 17-16 entering the fourth quarter and the Jets’ defense held the New England rushing attack to just 16 yards for the entire game, but Tom Brady was, well, Brady, and his two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter keyed a tough 30-23 Patriot win. Furthermore the Patriots were healthier then than they are now, as their long injury report resembles a MASH unit at the current time.

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Baltimore Ravens +10 (-116) Over Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 ET)
Yes, this looks like a mismatch on paper with the Steelers being one of the hottest teams in the NFL and the Ravens being one of the biggest disappointments in the league at 4-10 after a few experts actually picked Baltimore to go to the Super Bowl prior to this season. Furthermore, this is a revenge spot for the Steelers as one of the four Baltimore wins came on the road in Pittsburgh early in the year when Joe Flacco was still the starting quarterback of the Ravens and Michael Vick was starting for an injured Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers. The thing is though all of that is built into this line with the Ravens being double-digit underdogs at home. As mentioned, this season has been a disaster for the Ravens, so just about the only goal they have remaining is to at least help knock the hated Steelers out of the playoff race, which a big upset here would go a long way toward accomplishing. And many times you can throw records out the window in rivalries like this one, where every meeting is hard fought and most of the games are close, such as that 23-20 overtime win by the Ravens in Pittsburgh on October 4th. Moreover, you will never get rich backing double-digit road favorites in the NFL and you can take that a step farther with the Steelers, as they are 0-8 ATS on the last eight occasions that they have been road favorites of more than a touchdown!

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Green Bay Packers +4½ (-110) Over Arizona Cardinals (4:25 ET)
This is another contest where an edge in motivation may trump a probable edge in talent, not that a hot Packers’ team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm is ever lacking in talent in its own right. However, the Packers are the team trying to win the NFC North title here, which Green Bay would do with a win followed by a Minnesota loss on Sunday Night Football vs. the Giants. That possibility of clinching the division Sunday combined with the chronological order of the games should keep Green Bay motivated to get this win this week, which would not have been the case had the Vikings played first and already won, as that scenario would have deemed this game meaningless with the division title then coming down to the head-to-head battle between the Packers and Minnesota to end the season next week regardless. The Cardinals meanwhile have practically no incentive here as they seem resigned to being the two-seeds in the NFC, and they may even have one eye on their final game next week vs. the Seattle Seahawks, which while probably meaningless in terms of seeding, could serve as a nice gauge to see where Arizona stands entering the playoffs.

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