NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 16

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, December 19, 2014 10:25 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 19, 2014 10:25 PM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for this weekend to build your bankroll on Week 16, beginning with the rare Saturday afternoon contest between the Eagles and the Redskins.


When you’re hot, you’re hot, and we had another stellar NFL week last week going 5-1 over the entire weekend, and we are now at the magical 60 percent mark after 120 decisions this 2014 NFL season at 72-48-1, 60.0%, +24.02 YTD as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum! We now hope to continue that good fortune this weekend as we return with our usual Friday 5-Pack of NFL picks for Week 16.

This week began with possibly the worst prime time matchup in the history of football on Thursday night. OK that might have been a bit harsh, but the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans were both 2-12 entering that contest and the home standing Jaguars were the team getting their third win 21-13 while covering as four-point favorites. That contest stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 39.

Moving on to the weekend, we kick things off with a rare Saturday play for a change, followed by four Sunday selections. We also have just two sides this week, although both of them are underdogs as is our normal nature, with the other three selections being totals. So without further ado, here are our five weekend selections for Week 16 with all of these NFL odds coming from Pinnacle Sports, as has become our norm.

Saturday, December 20th
Washington Redskins +7½ (-115) over Philadelphia Eagles (4:30 ET):
The Philadelphia Eagles are still fighting for the NFC East title, but they are actually out of the playoffs as of this second as the seventh seeds in the NFC after losing a key divisional battle at home last week to the now first-place Dallas Cowboys 38-27. That marked the second straight loss for the Eagles, both at home, and while they are now taking on a Washington Redskins’ team that is just playing out the string, Philadelphia still seems like an overlay giving more than a touchdown on the road, especially considering how poorly Mark Sanchez played in the back-to-back home losses. What makes this an even more treacherous spot for the Eagles with the playoff situations aside is that they may have to lean on Sanchez more than they would like to because the Redskins have actually been stout defending the run all season, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and not surrendering 100 rushing yards since back on Week 8. On the other side, Robert Griffin III actually just had his best game of the season vs. the Giants on Sunday after entering in the first quarter with Colt McCoy knocked out for the season with a neck injury, and his scrambling ability could very well allow him to buy time to find open receivers vs. what has been a shaky Eagles’ secondary.
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Sunday, December 21st
Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears ‘under’ 44½ (-110) (1:00 ET):
The big news surrounding this contest is the benching of Jay Cutler by the Bears in favor of Jimmy Clausen, and as bad as Cutler has been, Clausen is a guy that had a 52.5 percent completion percentage while averaging a measly 5.2 yards per pass attempt with nine interceptions vs. three touchdown passes with the Carolina Panthers in 2010, and then did not appear in another NFL game until three mop-up roles for the Bears this season over which he has completed just 3-of-9 passes for 42 yards. He now makes his first start vs. the ferocious Detroit defensive line, so the results do not figure to be pretty. Still, we have no interest in giving more than a touchdown on the road with the Lions either, but we feel that this ‘under’ is a viable alternative as we simply do not see Chicago scoring much at all. With Clausen under center and with Brandon Marshall out for the season, the Bears will probably lean heavily on the running of Matt Forte. That is all well and good considering that Forte is one of the better all-around running backs in the NFL when he is used properly, but the problem here is that the Lions lead the NFL in rushing defense allowing just 63.8 yards per game on the ground on 3.1 yards per carry. Meanwhile the Lions may not be fully focused either, knowing that regardless of the result of this game the NFC North title will come down to next week’s season finale at Green Bay anyway, assuming that the Packers take care of business vs. the last place Buccaneers this week.

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Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-113) over Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 ET): Right now, the Steelers would be in the playoffs as the first wild card if the season ended today while the Chiefs would be the first team out as the seventh seeds in the AFC, and in the whole scheme of things, this contest means much more to the visiting Chiefs and that may very well be the deciding factor. That is because a loss here would just about eliminate Kansas City from playoff consideration barring some miraculous combination of other results, while the Steelers probably have two chances to clinch a playoff berth with a win either this week or next week and they even have a chance to be playing for the AFC North title here at home vs. the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17. Besides the Chiefs have a chance to succeed offensively here provided Coach Andy Reid remembers to give Jamaal Charles ample touches, and there is no reason not to as Charles almost had a week off vs. the Raiders last week with 12 carries in a 31-13 blowout win. And remember that Pittsburgh is just 25th in the NFL in yards per rush allowed at 4.4 per carry, and success by Charles should open things up for Alex Smith to have a good game vs. a 25th ranked Steelers’ passing defense that is allowing over nine yards per pass attempt over the last four weeks! Meanwhile Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger was surprisingly under a lot of pressure vs. a normally weak Atlanta pass rush last week and Kansas City can bring a lot more pressure.

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Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers ‘over’ 40½ (-114) (1:00 ET): We readily admit that offense is not the first thing that comes to mind in this matchup, especially considering how awful Johnny Manziel was for the Browns in his first NFL start and how improved the Carolina defense has looked in recent weeks. With that said, we actually expect the Panthers to score their fair share of points here, meaning that the Browns may not need to score a ton to help push this contest ‘over’ this rather modest total. For starters, Cam Newton is now probable for the Panthers, and reports are that he has seemed miraculously unaffected by his automobile accident that kept him out of action last week, and that includes showing nice mobility during those practice sessions, which of course is a major key for him. On top of that, he could potentially be passing against a depleted Cleveland secondary as Joe Haden (shoulder) and Justin Gilbert (concussion) are listed as questionable. Now, there is no way to sugarcoat the performance of Johnny Football last week as he had probably the worst game of any quarterback in the entire league this season, passing for only 80 yards with two interceptions, and that is not to mention looking totally lost in various formations including simple tasks such as turning the right way to hand the ball off to his running backs. Well, there is only one direction for him to go, right? Maybe, maybe not, but at least Manziel could potentially get better support from the running game here with Carolina still just 21st in the league in rushing defense and 29th out of 32 NFL teams in yards per carry allowed at a generous 4.6.

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New York Giants, St. Louis Rams ‘over’ 43½ (-104) (4:05 ET): This is another contest where the ‘over’ does not come immediately to mind, especially with the Rams not allowing a touchdown in three games and allowing 46 points in five games. However, the Giants can actually score here as it is entirely possible that Eli Manning will throw the ball 40 times in this contest with Andre Williams struggling to run the ball in relief of the injured Rashad Jennings, and the Rams stuffing the run in recent weeks anyway. Now, one would think that a one-dimensional passing offense would be easy to defend for the 11th ranked St. Louis passing defense, but the probable offensive Rookie of the Year Odell Beckham has proven to be matchup proof with his 71 receptions for 972 receiving yards (13.7 yards per catch) with nine receiving touchdowns in only 10 games, not to mention many of his catches being of the acrobatic variety. Because of Beckham’s heroics, Manning has now had a minimum of 247 passing yards in eight straight games, and if you toss his one atrocious game vs. the 49ers where he has five interceptions and one touchdown pass, he has 14 touchdown passes vs. three interceptions over the other seven games during this streak. Meanwhile the Rams should perform better offensively this week than in their 12-6 loss to Arizona last Thursday as the Giants are 30th in the NFL in rushing defense, setting up running back Tre Mason for a big effort that should lead to success for quarterback Shaun Hill.

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