NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 13

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, November 29, 2014 1:56 AM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014 1:56 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll on Week 13, highlighted by the so-called “Super Bowl Preview” between the Patriots and Packers.


It was another winning NFL week for us in Week 12 as we went 6-4 across the entire weekend. We then began this week with a 1-1 split on Thanksgiving Day, still leaving us at a shining 60-45-1, 57.1%, +14.21 YTD as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum! Now hopefully we can now carry that good fortune into Sunday as we are back once again with our usual Friday 5-Pack of NFL picks for Week 13.

We had a good start to our Thanksgiving with the Detroit Lions -7, as they doubled up the Chicago Bears 34-17 to begin the day. However, we then evened our record by going down with the ‘over’ 56 between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, as Philadelphia prevailed by only a 33-10 count. We passed on the Thursday night game, where the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers as tiny 1-point underdogs 19-3, with that game easily going ‘under’ 40.

Now we move on to Sunday where we have a little bit of everything this week. We have three sides comprised of two underdogs and one favorite, as well as two totals split between one ‘over’ and one ‘under’. As has become our custom, all of these NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, November 30th
Washington Redskins +10 (-115) over Indianapolis Colts (1:00 ET):
The Colts seem to be on their way to another AFC South Division title and they have a possible future Hall of Fame quarterback in Andrew Luck, but this is not a team without holes right now, namely a weak offensive line and running game. Luck was constantly under siege in the first half vs. the lowly Jaguars last week before the Colts pulled away in the second half to win 23-3, and the Redskins also have a nice pass rush with 28 sacks. And it is not as if Luck has a reliable running game he can lean on to slow down the pass rush as Indianapolis has now inserted the unheralded Dan Herron as the starting running back, apparently giving up on Trent Richardson. Herron ran decently vs. Jacksonville, but he is now going up against a Washington run defense allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. The big new for the Redskins this week was the benching of Robert Griffin III in favor of Colt McCoy. We see this as a positive move as McCoy already demonstrated he was a nice fit for Jay Gruden’s offense while Griffin was hurt, and let’s face it, RG3 has been a mess since his rookie season, which it now looks like he will never repeat.

Buffalo Bills -3½ (+104) over Cleveland Browns (1:00 ET): The Bills return to Ralph Wilson Stadium this week after being forced to play a “home” game in Detroit last week due to the historical snowstorms in Buffalo. The Bills did not mind the temporary housing though as the defense was terrific in a 38-3 demolition of the Jets. Buffalo is now ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense allowing just 312.2 yards per game and fifth in scoring defense at only 18.8 points, and the Bills’ pass rush, which leads the NFL in sacks, can take advantage of a Cleveland offensive line that has not performed as well since losing Pro Bowl center Alex Mack for the season. Also Cleveland quarterback Brian Hoyer has regressed the last two weeks, even throwing three interceptions vs. the terrible Atlanta pass defense last week, only to get bailed out by even worse clock management late by Falcon Coach Mike Smith that allowed the Browns to come back and win 26-24 on a last-second field goal. Yes the Browns have run the ball very well this season but Buffalo is only allowing 3.8 yards per rush so Cleveland needs Hoyer to regain his good form from earlier this season. That may be difficult with Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes in the backfield all day!

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-107) over New York Giants (1:00 ET): This is a dreadful scheduling spot for the Giants as they are playing a non-conference game vs. a 1-10 team following an emotional last-second 31-28 loss to their hated divisional rivals the Dallas Cowboys last week. The G-Men are not going anywhere this season at 3-8 so they left everything on the field that game and figure to have an extremely tough time getting up for this contest. And as bad as Jacksonville has been this season, do not lose sight of the fact that the Giants have now lost six straight games themselves. The best part of the entire Jaguars’ team is their defensive line, and that unit could dominate a porous New York offensive line here and put great pressure on the already struggling Eli Manning in this contest. In fact, if the Jags had just a slight semblance of an offense vs. the Colts last week, they would have had a chance at an upset considering that defensive line did its job sacking Andrew Luck five times and forcing six fumbles with three of those recovered by Jacksonville. Yes, quarterback Blake Bortles is going through growing pains since becoming the Jaguar starter, but the rookie has a chance to succeed here as the Giants have no pass rush to speak of and rank second to last in the NFL in total defense allowing nearly 400 yards per game (396.5).

Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings ‘over’ 42½ (-105) (1:00 ET): This may actually be a higher scoring game than some people think. The Vikings come off of a tough 24-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers in an emotional divisional battle, so they may come out flat here, which is usually manifested in a lack of energy on defense. The offense could have success though vs. an abysmal Carolina defense ranked 25th in total defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per run, which could set up Viking running back Jerick McKinnon and maybe even the newly signed Ben Tate to have good games on the ground, taking some pressure off of Teddy Bridgewater vs. the Panthers’ 26th ranked pass defense. Meanwhile the Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for this contest following a bye, and Cam Newton certainly could have used that rest. He just might come out more energized here having had some time to heal and go back to becoming a dual threat by running aggressively again, which is not a bad thing considering Minnesota ranks 20th in rushing defense and Newton is probably a better runner than the Carolina running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. And if the Vikes are forced to respect Newton’s running ability, it should also afford him some time to throw the ball to super-rookie Kelvin Benjamin downfield.

New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers ‘under’ 58 (-105) (4:25 ET): This is the next “Game of the Year” in the NFL this season except this time that tag could be appropriate as this really could be a legitimate Super Bowl Preview. As so often happens when games are hyped as much as this one is though, this total seems to be very inflated. In fact, this is the highest posted total in the NFL this season and according to our records only five NFL games since 1990 have had posted totals higher than this 58 figure. However, part of the reason why this could be a precursor of the first Sunday in February is because while everyone is enamored with the offenses of these two teams and the two quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in particular, both teams also play good enough defense to get through the playoffs and they now get a chance to prove that against each other. One of our favorite metrics for measuring defense is yards per play allowed overall, and these teams are respectably tied for 11th in that category at 5.6 yards per snap. Perhaps more importantly regarding this game due to the opposing quarterbacks, Green Bay is 11th in the league in yards per pass allowed at 6.5 and New England is right behind in12th at 6.6. No we are not saying this game will be a defensive struggle, but this posted total seems humongous as even a game in the low 50s would be good enough to cash this ticket.

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