NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 11

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, November 14, 2014 9:55 PM GMT

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll on Week 11, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the 7-2 Detroit Lions and 6-1 Arizona Cardinals.

 

Well, we did not have the best week in Week 10 going just 3-4 across all of our plays for the entire weekend, but we are still up double-digits during this fine 2014 NFL season as we are now 50-39, 56.2%, +10.34 YTD as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum. We now hope to get back on track with better results this Sunday as we are back once again with our customary Friday 5-Pack of NFL picks for Week 11.

This week began on Thursday night with the favored Miami Dolphins both winning on the field and covering the -4 point spread while stifling the Buffalo Bills 22-9. Thus the favorites have now gone 9-2 straight up and 8-3 ATS in these Thursday Night Football games this season. That contest did stay ‘under’ the closing total of 40½,.so the ‘unders’ are making a comeback going 3-0 the past three weeks after the ‘overs’ went 7-1 the first eight Thursdays this season.

Moving on to Sunday, we have a bit if a mishmash with our five plays this week. We have three sides comprised of two underdogs and one small favorite, as well as two totals split between one ‘over’ and one ‘under’. As has become customary for us, all of these NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.


Sunday, November 16th
Minnesota Vikings +2½ (+108) over Chicago Bears (1:00 ET):
The Bears are a disaster right now as they just became the second team in NFL history to allow at least 50 points in back-to-back games, joining those legendary 1923 Rochester Jeffersons! And what made last weeks 55-14 drubbing at the hands of the Green Bay Packers most disheartening was that the Bears had a bye week following their 51-23 blowout loss at New England three weeks ago and also what wide receiver Brandon Marshall called a “great week of practice,” leading some to believe that the internal bickering on this team prior to the bye had been put to rest. Instead quarterback Jay Cutler had three more turnovers giving him 12 of them in the last six games over which Chicago is 1-5, and the defense could not stop a thing allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for 315 yards and six touchdown and also allowing 132 rushing yards. Now it is the Vikings that have had two weeks to prepare following a bye, which they entered on an upswing by beating the Washington Redskins 29-26 with Teddy Bridgewater probably having his best game since his first NFL start with 268 passing yards, giving Minnesota a two-game winning streak. There is no reason why Bridgewater cannot now continue his development against this sorry excuse for a defense, while the fine Minnesota pass rush could continue to make Cutler’s life a living hell.

Atlanta Falcons -1 (-108) over Carolina Panthers (1:00 ET): Such is the sad state of the NFC South that the winner of this matchup between two teams that are both 3-6 could be in a first place tie at the end of the day if the team currently leading the division, the 4-5 New Orleans Saints, loses to Cincinnati. While both of these teams have significant holes, the Falcons appear to be in better shape at the current time to quiet those calling for the firing of Coach Mike Smith for at least one more week .The Falcons blew a 21-0 halftime lead in London two games ago before losing to the Lions 22-21, but they did cover the spread in what was really their best performance in a while considering, and they then did break a five-game losing streak and grab their second straight cover last week with a 27-17 road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as Matt Ryan completed 20-of-31 passes for 219 yards and Stephen Jackson turned back the clock with 81 rushing yards on 16 carries. The key was that the Atlanta offensive line looked the best that it has all season thanks to first-round draft pick Jake Matthews looking like himself again after dealing with nagging injuries earlier on. As for the Panthers, most of the nation saw their dreadful 45-21 loss to the Eagles Monday night where they struggled in all three phases of the game including special teams, and unfortunately that dumpster of a performance is no longer an anomaly for Carolina.

St. Louis Rams +9 (-103) over Denver Broncos (1:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the NFL puts forth more effort than the Rams as Coach Steve Fisher does an outstanding job of get the most he could from his rather limited talent. Despite probably being outclassed, the Rams have beaten the Seattle Seahawks at home and the San Francisco 49ers on the road this year and then last week there were toe-to-toe with the first place Arizona Cardinals again on the road, holding the lead in the fourth quarter before two late defensive touchdowns for Arizona led to the deceptive 31-14 final score. One thing that the Rams are doing well is rushing the passer, as they now have 11 sacks in the last two games, and with the support of a probably loud home crowd, they can feed off of that adrenaline here and continue to apply good pressure on Peyton Manning. The Broncos come off of what was basically a scrimmage in a 41-17 rout of the winless Raiders in Oakland, and they could be in a position to get ambushed here as non-conference road favorites against another supposedly inferior team with probably a tougher game vs. the excellent defense of the Dolphins next on the schedule, making these points worth taking with the Rams playing at home.

San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants ‘over’ 44½ (-105) (1:00 ET): The 49ers were impressive in resurrecting their season last week in a tough spot on the road vs. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, racing to a 21-10 lead at the half and then withstanding a New Orleans rally, in fact re-rallying themselves for a game tying field goal in the final seconds of regulation time before winning 27-24 in overtime. As game as the Niners were, not all the news was good as the defense allowed 423 total yards and then Patrick Willis went to injured reserve following the game, meaning that he is out for the season. Now the Niners are capable of matching their offensive performance of last week here vs. a Giants’ team ranked dead last in the NFL in both total defense and rushing defense, but unfortunately San Francisco can match last week’s poor defensive showing too. The Giants come in on a four-game losing streak, a streak that began when running back Rashad Jennings was lost during the last New York win back in Week 5 to a knee injury. However, the good news is that Jennings is expect back this week and he is expected to play a big role has his excellent receiving skills out of the backfield make him a perfect fit for the west coast offense that first-year Giant offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo brought with him from the Green Bay Packers. The Giants actually hit some big plays in the first half last week when entering the locker room with a 17-14 lead over the Seahawks in Seattle and that offense now figures to gain more consistency with Jennings back.

Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals ‘under’ 41½ (-113) (4:25 ET): Not many experts before this season began would have predicted this to be a matchup of first place teams with Arizona sitting at 8-1 and Detroit sitting at 7-2 entering this Week 11 clash, and yet here we are. This is also a matchup of two of the better defenses in the NFL, and both of those units figure to perform well again this week with both teams having offensive issues, the Cardinals due to losing quarterback Carson Palmer to a torn ACL last week and the Lions due to not running the ball very well right now with a banged up running back corps. But Detroit sure can play defense, leading the NFL in both total defense surrendering a scant 283.4 yards per game and in scoring defense allowing 15.8 points per contest. For good measure, the Lions are second in rushing defense, third in passing defense and eighth in sacks with 26 in nine games, making this a tough spot for Drew Stanton to replace Palmer under center. However, the Lions are second to last in the NFL in rushing offense at just 77.8 yards per game and that does not figure to change here vs. an Arizona defense ranked third against the run allowing just 78.6 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per attempt. And the opportunistic Cardinal secondary has feasted once the defense has forced opponents to become one-dimensional passing teams as Arizona leads the NFL with 14 interceptions.