Here is a 5-Pack of NFL value plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll on Week 10, highlighted by the Sunday Night game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.
It was another winning week for us in Week 9 of the 2014 NFL season as we went 3-2 across all of our plays, as we continued our fine season that currently has us at 47-35, 57.3%, +11.53 YTD as documented in the Sportsbook Review Forum. We now hope for our good fortune to continue this Sunday as we return one again with our customary Friday 5-Pack of NFL picks for Week 10.
This week began with a rarity this season, a Thursday night upset with the Cleveland Browns surprising the Cincinnati Bengals 24-3 as 6½-point underdogs. The Browns were just the second underdog this season to win straight up in these Thursday night affairs. Furthermore the final point output of 27 fell well short of the closing total of 45½, marking the second Thursday night ‘under’ in as many weeks after the ‘over’ had gone 7-1 the first eight weeks this season.
Moving on to Sunday, we have an identically contrarian menu as we had last week, as we once again have four sides that are all underdogs and one total that is an ‘under’. And as has become the norm for us, all of these NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.
Sunday, November 9th
Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions ‘under’ 43½ (-103) (1:00 ET): This is a matchup of two of the better defenses in the NFL, and based on this total, both remain a bit underrated too. The Lions lead the entire NFL in both total defense at 290.4 yards per game and in scoring defense at 15.8 points per contest, and Detroit does not really have a weakness on that side of the ball, ranking second in rushing defense while allowing 3.3 yards per carry and fifth in passing defense while allowing 6.2 yards per attempt. Everything starts up front for the Lions as they have recorded 24 sacks in eight games and they can make life tough on Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill here. Yes Tannehill is quietly having a great year, but it has helped that the Miami offensive line has performed better than expected. We may go back to seeing the “old” Tannehill here vs. a lethal pass rush. Likewise, the Dolphins are third in the league in total defense at 304.6 yards per game and also third in points against at 18.9 after an impressive 37-0 lambasting of Philip Rivers and the Chargers last week. Miami has one more sack than the Lions do with 25 so Detroit signal caller should also be under the gun, especially if the Lions’ running attack averaging 79.6 rushing yards per game continues to struggle.
Buffalo Bills +1½ (-105) over Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 ET): The Chiefs have become renowned for their defense, and deservedly so, but a case can be made that the Buffalo defense has been even better, which is a very nice trait for a home underdog facing a mostly conservative Kansas City offense. Sure the Buffalo offense has been a bit better since Kyle Orton replaced the inept E.J. Manuel at quarterback, but it is still a defense that is tied with the Seattle Seahawks for fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall at just 5.1 that is keeping the Bills afloat. For comparative purposes, that is one-half yard less than the 5.6 yards per play the more publicized Kansas City defense is allowing. Remember also that the Bills are coming off of a bye week after putting up 43 points vs. the New York Jets two weeks ago, and with running back Fred Jackson feeling better and possibly returning this week and wide receiver Sammy Watkins seemingly not hurt as badly as first thought and now expected to play, Buffalo could put up more points than some people think playing here at home. The Chiefs could be a touch overconfident following back-to-back double-digit home wins over some suspect competition in St. Louis and the Jets, and they could easily be looking ahead to a home date with the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks next Sunday.
St. Louis Rams +6½ (-105) over Arizona Cardinals (4:25 ET): Consistency has not been a strong suit for the Rams as after getting destroyed by the Chiefs 34-7 two weeks ago, they then went on the road and upset the San Francisco 49ers 13-10 last week! In fact the Rams have played their best football inside the NFC West as besides that win over the Niners, St. Louis also beat the Seahawks back home a few weeks ago. So will the Rams now complete the division hat trick by beating the division leading 7-1 Cardinals? Maybe, maybe not but we do feel that St. Louis will show up again and give a maximum effort to at the very least come home inside the spread. The Rams have gotten better defensively as the season has gone on, as they held the 49ers to just 80 rushing yards with Frank Gore getting only 49 of them and their pass rush has returned after being MIA most of this season, sacking Colin Kaepernick eight times last Sunday. The Cardinals are hot but they have not faced a good pass rush like St. Louis possesses in a while and have a statuesque quarterback in Carson Palmer. On top of all this, Arizona could be looking ahead to dates with “better” teams in the Lions and Seahawks the next two weeks.
New York Giants +8 (-102) over Seattle Seahawks (4:25 ET): The Seahawks may be the defending champions but their offense has been mostly terrible since trading away Percy Harvin as their current receivers are lacking in breakaway speed that can put pressure on opposing defenses. Thus Seattle is on an 0-4 ATS skid and almost did the unthinkable last week, as the team that is the most renowned in the NFL for its home field advantage and “12th Man” probably would have lost here at home to the winless Raiders if not for three Oakland turnovers that contributed greatly to Seattle’s 30-24 victory, as the Seahawks produced a modest 326 yards of total offense. The Giants lost their third straight game 40-24 to Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts with much of the country watching that game on Monday night, and yet this line has now dropped to +8 from an opener of +10. Besides the Seahawks’ recent offensive woes, part of the reason for that is because the Giant run defense looked better last week following a bye, and nowadays if you can contain the Seattle running game you have a chance to win given the struggles the Seahawks’ current receivers are having getting separation. Also, as lopsided as that Monday loss looked, the Giants were actually only outgained by a grand total of five yards.
Chicago Bears +7 (-101) over Green Bay Packers (8:30 ET): The Packers beat the Bears handily 38-17 in Chicago earlier this season and have now beaten Chicago in eight of the last nine meetings with the only loss coming in the game in which Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone here in Lambeau Field last season. So why is this spread only Green Bay -7, especially with the Bears fighting internally and coming off of a pair of blowout losses to the Dolphins here at home and to the Patriots in New England? Well, while it is true that both of these teams are coming off a bye, the Bears probably needed it more than any other team in the league. Hopefully the bickering in the clubhouse is behind them because the Bears do have the pieces in place to stay close or even win this game as long as Jay Cutler, who has six interceptions and three lost fumbles in the last five games, stops turning the ball over. The Bears have traditionally done well off of a bye going 7-1 straight up in this situation, two All-Pro caliber wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and one of the best all-purpose running backs in the NFL when used properly in Matt Forte. Chicago is fully capable of putting up points here vs. a Green Bay defense ranked 26th in total defense and dead last vs. the run at 153.4 rushing yards per game, which Forte can exploit. Also remember that Rodger threw his first two interceptions for the Packers since opening week last game in New Orleans with both picks coming after tweaking his hamstring, which bears watching.