NFL Betting: 4-Pack of Wild Card Playoff Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, January 3, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Jan. 3, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 4-Pack of NFL plays for the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs, with one selection on every game played this Saturday and Sunday.

Well, the 2013 NFL regular season has come and gone, so it is now time for the NFL Playoffs, featuring some of the most heavily wagered on single events across all North American sports, obviously culminating with the Super Bowl from MetLife Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on February 2nd. And as usual, we will be here every step of the way with our NFL Picks, beginning with one selection for all four Wild Card Playoff games this week!

What makes this Wild Card Round more interesting is that three of the four games are rematches of regular season meetings, and all three of those are played at the opposite venue of where the regular season matchup took place! In case you were wondering, the team that lost the regular season meeting has gone 40-24, 62.5 percent ATS in non-divisional playoff rematches since 2001.

Our selections are comprised of three sides and one total, with the sides composed of one tiny favorite as of now and two underdogs. As has been our norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Saturday, January 4th
Indianapolis Colts PK (-108) over Kansas City Chiefs: This is the first of the three regular season rematches this week as the Colts went into Kansas City in Week 16 and whipped the Chiefs easily 23-7. And we are bucking the trend that we mentioned in the introduction by picking the Colts to win again the second time around, this time at home. The Chiefs have not really played all that well since losing to the Denver Broncos for the second time and thus being realistically taken out of the AFC West race, and they went 2-5 in their last seven games overall with the wins coming against a couple of dreadful teams in the Oakland Raiders and the Washington Redskins. And they even made Oakland’s Matt McGloin look like a good NFL quarterback in that 56-31 victory where Jamaal Charles scored five total touchdowns. In fact, the Chiefs had one of the easiest schedule in the NFL this season with an SOS ranked 26th in the league. Comparatively, the Colts faced an SOS ranked 11th and yet still managed an identical 11-5 record as the Chiefs. Indianapolis was also a much better team here at home this season where the Colts went 6-2 including impressive wins over the Seahawks and Broncos, who oh by the way are the current favorites to represent each of their respective conferences in the Super Bowl. Also, Chiefs’ quarterback Alex Smith has yet to win a road playoff game in his career, and he did not perform well vs. the Colts two weeks ago as he stood at 10-for-18 for a measly 79 passing yards before padding those numbers a bit after the Colts made the score 23-7 with a bit over two minutes remaining in the third quarter, still finishing with only 153 passing yards and two interceptions.


New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles ‘under’ 53½ (-108): This is the lone wild card game this week that is not a rematch. Selecting a side here seems rather dicey, as while the Eagles seem like the fairly obvious play given the history of Drew Brees and the Saints in very cold outdoor games as well as the fact that New Orleans went 1-7 ATS on the road this season, this is also the first ever playoff start for Philadelphia’s quarterback Nick Foles, which makes the Eagles risky favorites. However, we do find value with the ‘under’ at what looks like a very inflated number, especially considering the expected bitter cold on Saturday night. All New Orleans games averaged a combined 44.9 points this season and that averaged dropped to 40.2 points on the road, where the supposedly lethal Saints’ offense averaged only 17.8 points. Now, all of the publicity regarding the Eagles this year centered around the fast-break offense of first year NFL coach Chip Kelly, and the Philadelphia defense was a horror show at times while ranking 29th in the NFL in total defense yielding 394.2 yards per game. And yet given all of that, the 53.5-point combined average of all Eagles’ games this season is right on this posted total, and you could probably shave a few points off of that average here given these expected weather conditions. Plus, Philadelphia will probably try and take some pressure off of Foles in his first playoff start by handing the ball to the leading rusher in the NFL this year LeSean McCoy early and often, which could take some time off the clock.


Sunday, January 5th
San Diego Chargers +7 (-120) over Cincinnati Bengals: This is a rematch from Week 13 when the Bengals traveled to San Diego and came away with the 17-10 victory, one of just three road wins for Cincinnati this year. However, the Bengals went a perfect 8-0 here at home. Still, that perfect mark could be in jeopardy here and even if Cincinnati is able to remain perfect at home, covering a touchdown vs. a hot team does not look like an easy feat. That game marked the final loss of the season for the Chargers, who then won their last four games in a semi-miraculous run to the playoffs that included lots of help from other teams and most memorably a missed chip-shot field goal at the end of regulation time by Kansas City’s Ryan Succop in the Chargers’ regular season finale that would have sent the Chargers packing before San Diego prevailed in overtime. So sure, the Chargers were rather lucky, but they did face a bit of a tougher schedule with an SOS ranked 19th compared to 27th for the Bengals, and San Diego did become the only team to beat the Broncos in Denver this year during the hot season-ending run. Also note that the Chargers committed three turnovers in the Week 13 loss to the Bengals while playing without left tackle King Dunlap, which allowed the Cincinnati defensive line to apply pressure on Phillip Rivers all game long. The four-game winning streak coincided directly with Dunlap’s return to the lineup though, so look for Rivers to have much more time in this rematch.


Green Bay Packers +2½ (-104) over San Francisco 49ers: Everywhere you look these days, all you here about is the 49ers being the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs that nobody wants to face, and that San Francisco could actually be one of the two best teams in the entire NFL, but have the misfortune of being in the same division as the other team, the Seattle Seahawks, which is why the Niners are only a wild card. We feel that the Packers are not being given nearly the respect that they deserve here, and we cannot resist backing Green Bay as a home underdog at Lambeau Field with Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb both back in the lineup. That duo hooked up for the winning touchdown in Chicago with 38 second remaining last week that catapulted the Packers into the playoffs, which would not have happened if backup Matt Flynn was still the Green Bay quarterback. Rodgers already showed in his first game back how much he means to this team as he overcame some early rustiness to finish with 318 passing yards, and he should only get better in his second start back following a collarbone injury with that start under his belt. Yes, San Francisco has one of the best defenses in football, but if the 49ers had one weakness, it was the poor play by Carlos Rogers and Eric Reid in the secondary over the second half of the season, which is certainly something that Rodgers and his now healthy targets can exploit in front of a raucous home crowd.


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