NFL Betting: 4-Pack of Playoff Divisional Round Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, January 10, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Jan. 10, 2014 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 4-Pack of NFL plays for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, with one selection on every game played this Saturday and Sunday.

The Wild Card Round of the 2013 NFL Playoffs is in the books, so it is now time for Round 2, the Divisional Round. This is the round where the Big Boys come out to play after the top two seeds in each conference had last week off. The next few weeks should feature some of the most heavily wagered on single events across all North American sports this year, culminating of course with the Super Bowl in Piscataway, and we will be here every week with our NFL Picks.

The Wild Card Round was all about road teams and underdogs, as the visiting squads went 3-1 straight up and the teams that closed as underdogs went 3-0-1 ATS. Interestingly, three of the four wild card games last week were regular season rematches, and as fate would gave it after those wild card results, three of the four games in this week’s Divisional Round are also rematches!

For the first time all season, we went heavier on totals this week as our selections are comprised of three totals and only one side, with the totals composed of two ‘unders’ and one ‘over’. As has become our custom, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Saturday, January 11th
New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks ‘under’ 45 (-110): The Saints proved that they could win in the elements after winning in the cold at Philadelphia last week 26-24 on a field goal by the recently signed Shayne Graham on the final play of the game. So as a reward, New Orleans now gets to take on the team with the best record in football at a venue where it almost never loses for the second time this season. And the regular season visit by the Saints to Seattle was not pretty as the Seahawks romped 34-7 with Drew Brees having his worst game of the year, completing only 23-of-38 passes vs. for 147 yards vs. the best passing defense in the NFL. On top of that, Brees will have to improve on that in inclement conditions with the forecast calling for a 98 percent chance of rain and 25 MPH winds Saturday afternoon. The good news there though is that the weather should affect both clubs, and do not forget that while the New Orleans defense is not in the Seattle atmosphere, it is very good in its own right ranking an identical fourth in the NFL in both total defense (305.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (19.0 points). Granted Saints’ running back Pierre Thomas is expected to miss another game after sitting out last week with a chest injury, but former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram finally showed a pulse in the NFL by rushing for 97 yards on 18 carries vs. the Eagles. So while Brees is probably the New Orleans MVP, at least the Saints have a defense and running game to support him now, so not every game has to be a shootout.


Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots ‘under’ 51½ (-109): This posted total could be an overreaction to what the Colts did last week, when they overcame the second biggest deficit in NFL Playoff history by coming back from a 38-10 deficit to beat the Kansas City Chiefs 45-44! Add in Tom Brady and the New England Patriots on the opposite sideline, and you get this lofty total that these teams certainly have to go ‘over’, right? Well, in the immortal words if NCAA Football analyst Lee Corse, “Not so fast my friend!” Just like the game in Seattle, weather can become a factor here with a 90 percent chance of rain and 30 MPH winds. Much like Drew Brees, Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck does his best work in his climate controlled home dome, but unlike Brees, Luck does not have a solid running game to support him with Trent Richardson turning out to be a major bust. Thus, the Colts will call on Luck to win this game for them, but you can bet that New England Coach Bill Belichick will game plan to take away wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, just as he always game plans to take away the opponent’s biggest threat. So Luck will most likely be forcing throws to secondary receivers in less-than-ideal weather conditions, which does not sound like a recipe for matching last week’s Indianapolis offensive performance at home. Of course the Patriots are capable of scoring on anyone when they are fully healthy, but they are not with tight end Rob Gronkowski the rest of the year and wide receivers Aaron Dobson (foot) and Kenbrell Thompkin (hip) both banged up but expected to play.


Sunday, January 12th
San Francisco 49ers PICK (-108) over Carolina Panthers: This looks like the best matchup of the week, so it is a shame that this is the early 1:00 ET game on Sunday. Nonetheless, the second seeded Panthers come in having won 11 of their last 12 regular season games including a 10-9 win over these 49ers in San Francisco, while the Niners survived inhumane wind chills to win 23-20 at Green Bay last week on a last second field goal by Mason Crosby. Now, some people questioned why the 49ers opened up as favorites here on the road vs. a two-seed with a great defense that already beat them in their own stadium, but not only do we agree that the 49ers should be favored, but we actually feel that with this line close to a Pick’em, San Francisco is one of the best bets in the NFL all year! We are not concerned about the loss to the Panthers around mid-season because the 49ers were doing just fine and were up 9-0 until Vernon Davis was injured and lost for the game. This time Colin Kaepernick has a healthy Davis and also Michael Crabtree at his disposal, not to mention the San Francisco leading receiver this year in the steady Anquan Boldin. The 49ers may be one of the two best teams in the entire NFL when at full strength as they basically are now, and we have not even touched on the enormous edge in post-season experience they have over the Baby Panthers. Carolina does indeed have a nice defense and a great future, but this is not yet the Panthers’ time with most of their players including Cam Newton making their first ever playoff starts.


San Diego Chargers, Denver Broncos ‘over’ 54 (-110): These teams met four weeks ago when a desperate Chargers’ team needing to win out its games to make the playoffs came here to Denver on a Thursday night and upset a Broncos’ team with basically nothing to play for with the top seed in the AFC all but sewn up 27-20, handing Denver its only home loss of the season. Well, this is obviously another must-win for the Chargers, but unfortunately the same applies to the Broncos this time too, who also welcome back Wes Welker after he missed the last quarter of the season with a concussion. Thus, we should see the real Broncos this week, the team that led the NFL in scoring (37.9 points per game) and total offense (457.3 yards per contest) under the guidance of the league MVP Peyton Manning at quarterback. However, the Chargers are also capable of scoring points in this game vs. a Denver defense that was horrible this year when playing without Von Miller, and he has been lost for the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos finished 27th in the NFL in passing defense, which is music to the ears of Philip Rivers after a resurgent season that saw him pass for nearly 4500 yards while completing 69.5 percent of his passes and averaging a very good 8.2 yards per attempt with 32 touchdown passes vs. just 11 interceptions, his lowest interception total since 2009.


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