NFL Betting: 2015 Rookie Class Player Prop Investments

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, May 8, 2015 8:42 PM GMT

Now that the 2015 NFL Draft is over, there are some very interesting rookie player props. Take a look at some of our rookie prop selections from Bodog here.

 

The 2015 NFL Draft has come and gone and as usual there will be some winners with the selections and some losers. And already, Bodog has put up prop offerings for the 2015 season for most of the best known rookie selections.

Not surprisingly, quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first two picks in that order, followed by edge rusher Dante Fowler third and wide receiver Amari Cooper fourth. But did all of those rookies land in situations where they can start producing right away?

Well, we have our opinions on that so without any further ado, here are our player prop selections on many of the props currently posted at Bodog.

Melvin Gordon to win Rookie of the Year (+650): Gordon is the second choice behind Winston who is +600, and he was not even the first running back taken as he was the second back chosen after Todd Gurley. However, we feel that Gordon has the best chance at immediate success as he should win the starting job with the San Diego Chargers and he has a much better supporting cast around him than either Winston or Gurley.

Marcus Mariota ‘over’ 3 rushing touchdowns (-115): The Tennessee Titans are changing their offense to accommodate the second choice in the draft in Mariota, but they are still an organization in decline that has very little talent at the offensive skill positions, making this a bad landing spot for a quarterback that never took a snap under center in college and that may have a slow transition to the pro game while being immediately thrust in as the starter. However, there is some good news as his excellent straight-line speed, combined with the Titans’ weakness at running back make Mariota a prime rushing option even near the goal line, and while he may not have good numbers in his rookie year, he should still top three rushing touchdowns.

Todd Gurley ‘over’ 750½ rushing yards (-115): This play is all about volume, as with the St. Louis Rams trading away Zac Stacy, they are basically handing the starting job to Gurley, showing supreme confidence in a player that tore his ACL in his senior year at Georgia last season. Still, he probably has the best pure talent of any running back in this class and he has a coach in Jeff Fisher that loves feeding the ball to his lead running back, sometimes to a fault. A weak supporting cast may keep Gurley’s touchdowns and yards per carry down though, but as long as he stays healthy he should surpass this yardage total just due to the sheer number of carries he should get alone.

Melvin Gordon ‘over’ 6 rushing touchdowns (-115): Gordon projects to beat out the oft injured Ryan Mathews in San Diego and while the Chargers still have Danny Woodhead around as the third down back, Melvin could eventually become an ever down back. The fact the San Diego did not trade Philip Rivers should keep opposing defenses honest and the Chargers also have excellent run blockers in front of him. Even if we miss with out Rookie of the Year forecast, Gordon should still smash this six-touchdown mark on the ground. For your information, we passed on his posted yardage total of 900½, although he may lock up Rookie of the Year by going ‘over’ that figure.

Jameis Winston ‘over’ 19½ touchdown passes (-115): Winston may be on a crappy team in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he does have some very nice receiving targets in Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and even a couple of pass catching tight ends in Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Brandon Myers. And that is not to mention Winston probably needing to throw a lot with the Buccaneers trailing much of the time. Sure there is a learning curve, but not as much as with other quarterbacks with Winston being a pure pocket passer coming from a pro style offense at Florida State, where oh by the way he did not lose a single game until his final one vs. Mariota and Oregon in this year’s Rose Bowl.

Amari Cooper ‘under’ 5½ receiving touchdowns (-115): Cooper may have the most talent of any wide receiver in this draft, which would justify him being the first receiver taken at number four overall, but he may not have found a worse landing spot than with the Oakland Raiders. Raider quarterback Derek Carr is far from a sure thing long term and there is not much talent across the rest of the Oakland offense. In fact, Cooper probably instantly becomes the team’s number one receiver, and without much help, that should mean constant double coverages from opposing defenses. Thus Cooper’s production may not synch up with his actual talent in this, his rookie season.

Kevin White ‘over’ 6 receiving touchdowns (-115): White was the second receiver taken in the draft going to the Chicago Bears with the seventh pick, and with Chicago trading away Brandon Marshall, White and Alshon Jeffery on the opposite side instantly become “1A” options for the Bears with White having more long term upside. But obviously “long term” means nothing in regards to this wager, but having Jeffery on the other side may help White’s touchdown total with defenses not really being able to double team either receiver. On a side note, White’s posted receiving-yard total of 800½ seems a touch high for a rookie, although it may be attainable. We are much more confident in White surpassing this seemingly modest touchdown total however.

DeVante Parker ‘over’ 750½ receiving yards (-115): Parker was the third wide receiver taken at number 14 overall by the Miami Dolphins, and while Miami has a lot of capable receivers, Parker should still see the field a lot as at worst the number three receiver and quite possibly the starter opposite of Jarvis Landry while competing with Kenny Stills. And in Ryan Tannehill, Parker may have the best quarterback of all the receivers taken in the first round. Parker has blazing speed and he should get enough playing time to rack up some big yardage totals, especially if the Miami running game struggles.

Nelson Agholor ‘over’ 4½ receiving touchdowns (-115): No team has been as busy this off-season as Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles, and while some of the personnel moves could be considered head-scratchers, we do love this selection of the USC receiver Agholor with the 20th pick. Agholor has the ability to line up outside, in the slot or even in the backfield, making him an ideal fit in a Kelly offense and also possibly making Philadelphia the best landing destination for him. Remember that this is the offense that propelled DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Macklin to Pro Bowl type numbers, and Agholor is arguably a better pure athlete than either of them.

Dante Fowler ‘under’ 7½ sacks (-115): Was Fowler a reach at number three by the Jacksonville Jaguars when Leonard Williams and Vic Beasley were still on the board? Fowler moved all over the defensive line while with the Florida Gators while generating high tackle totals and the Jaguars may use him the same way, but he was lacking in creativity when it comes to getting to the quarterback and his sack totals only figure to get worse against NFL linemen. Thus he could be extremely effective in run-stopping with a bountiful of tackles for loss, but that effectiveness does not translate into sacks and that is all that matters as far as this prop is concerned.

Vic Beasley ‘over’ 8 sacks (-115): Contrary to Fowler, Beasley may end up being a steal for the Atlanta Falcons at number eight, as they may have gotten the man they wanted all along without needing to trade up for him as was rumored during the days leading up to the draft. The 2014 ACC Defensive Player of the Year played outside linebacker at Clemson, but he great pass rushing ability projects him as a hybrid defensive end / linebacker in the Falcons’ new defense, and he has the physical traits and versatility to move around positions seamlessly. We like Beasley to reach double-digits in sacks this year and to outperform both Fowler and Williams, which leads us to…

Vic Beasley to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1000): Fowler is favored in this category at +750, but we think Beasley has both the better value at this price and the better chance to have a great rookie season. If nothing else, Beasley should have a nice edge in sacks over Fowler and that is bound to score brownie points with the voters for this award.