NFL Betting: 2014 Quarterback Rankings

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, May 22, 2014 7:57 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 22, 2014 7:57 PM UTC

About two months ago, we did a quarterback rankings in this space. Has anything changed after free agency, the draft and updated NFL odds? These rankings are based only on projected 2014 statistics and wins, not a career or future production.

1. Drew Brees, Saints: Yes, Denver's Peyton Manning set NFL records for passing yards and touchdowns last season while the Broncos also broke the league mark for scoring. That said, Brees should put up the best numbers in 2014. He's built for a dome and will play 11 dome games: eight at home, at Atlanta, at Detroit, at Dallas. Only two likely cold-weather outdoor games: at Pittsburgh and Chicago. Also, rookie WR Brandin Cooks will be an impact player immediately.

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers: Now that the Packers have a running game thanks to Eddie Lacy, that should only open up the field for Rodgers. Remember, he didn't get to benefit from that much a season ago after missing half the year. Also, stud receiver Randall Cobb was limited to six games in 2013.

3. Peyton Manning, Broncos: Obviously an immortal performance last regular season. The only reasons for concern are: That surgically-repaired neck and his age (38); the loss of top target Eric Decker and No. 1 running back Knowshon Moreno; how mortal he looked in the playoffs against San Diego and especially Seattle.

4. Andrew Luck, Colts: Still not sure about the Indianapolis running game, but for a while there last year Luck's only receiver was T.Y. Hilton and Luck still had good numbers. Now he has Hilton, a healthy Reggie Wayne and new addition Hakeem Nicks. And really the running game should be better to help Luck out.

5. Matthew Stafford, Lions: If he can keep from turning the ball over, look at the weapons: Calvin Johnson, Golden State, Brandon Pettigrew, draft pick Eric Ebron, Reggie Bush. Can new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi get the best out of the immensely talented Stafford? I say yes.

6. Matt Ryan, Falcons: Another guy who benefits from playing in a dome. Atlanta should have a huge bounce-back season after a terrible 2013. Julio Jones being healthy is enough by itself. But the Falcons also hugely fortified the offensive line in free agency and the draft.

7. Tom Brady, Patriots: This ranking would likely be a spot or two higher if you could guarantee that Rob Gronkowski would play all 16 games or even be ready for Week 1 off his blown out knee. Brady did regress some last year.

8. Philip Rivers, Chargers: Bit surprised San Diego didn't address receiver this offseason, but the Bolts are apparently confident Malcom Floyd will play this season after suffering a serious neck injury early last year. He's no star but good for 40-50 catches and 800 or so yards.

9. Jay Cutler, Bears: Chicago should be even more dynamic in Year 2 under offensive-minded coach Marc Trestman. You can't argue with Cutler's weapons: Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. It's all a matter of Cutler staying healthy.

10. Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Obviously a Super Bowl champion but really more of a caretaker of that Seattle offense than a prolific quarterback. There's nothing wrong with that, but the Super Bowl hangover hit Joe Flacco like a ton of bricks. Might it Wilson? He certainly has had way more distractions this offseason.

11. Andy Dalton, Bengals: He thinks he is a franchise quarterback, but the Bengals haven't stepped up with an extension yet. That is usually a great motivator. Dalton also now has A.J. McCarron to possibly worry about down the road.

12. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Would be Top 5 on this list purely on all-around talent. Two things hurt him: the Niners are going to generally a run-first power team under Jim Harbaugh, and Kaepernick still makes too many mistakes at times. The Niners had the NFC title game if not for his turnover-filled fourth quarter.

13. Robert Griffin III, Redskins: He was No. 19 when I did this list two months ago. Why the bump? Two words: DeSean Jackson. Plus RGIII will be two years removed from knee surgery and away from the Shanahans.

14. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: You would take Big Ben to win a playoff game over many of these other guys to be sure. However, why didn't the Steelers get him more receiving help this offseason? Antonio Brown is a solid No. 1, but after that? Sorry, Lance Moore isn't the answer.

15. Tony Romo, Cowboys: I wish Dallas had taken Johnny Manziel. Perhaps it would have gotten the best out of Romo. Remember, too, that Romo is 34, coming off major back surgery and under yet another different playcaller.

16. Nick Foles, Eagles: He was No. 11 in the first rankings. You have to drop a guy who loses a receiving stud like DeSean Jackson. There will be some regression this year by Foles as it's statistically impossible for him to have a TD:INT ratio of 27:2 again.

17. Joe Flacco, Ravens: Expect a return to 2012 numbers after a hugely disappointing 2013 when Flacco was 32nd in QB rating and threw a career-high 22 interceptions.

18. Eli Manning, Giants: It's possible that Eli is on the downside of his career despite being five years younger than Peyton. However, the Giants did fortify the line in front of him and added a weapon in LSU receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

19. Cam Newton, Panthers: Why didn't the Panthers go after DeSean Jackson again? Not sure that Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and first-round pick Kelvin Benjamin will cut it at receiver.

20. Carson Palmer, Cardinals: A full season under the tutelage of head coach Bruce Arians under his belt, Palmer could have a big season. He improved as last year went on and the porous offensive line in front of him was heavily addressed this offseason.

21. Josh McCown, Buccaneers: McCown thrived in Chicago mainly by throwing jump balls to his two monster receivers. He has two now in Tampa Bay with Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the team's first-round pick out of Texas A&M and an Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite at sportsbooks. That draft pick jumped McCown five spots.

22. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: Still not a big fan of his receiving corps, but the Fins will have perhaps three new starters on the offensive line. Tannehill was sacked more than anyone last year. Miami also should have a better running game with Knowshon Moreno to help Tannehill out.

23. Sam Bradford, Rams: Will the Rams regret passing on both Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater twice in the first round of the draft? I say yes. Bradford has a terrible crop of receivers and the Rams didn't take a one in the draft. They also lost Stedman Bailey to a four-game suspension.

24. Jake Locker, Titans: He has the motivation of playing for a new contract and Tennessee added a receiving back in Dexter McCluster and potential second-round steal at running back in Washington's Bishop Sankey. Suddenly the Titans might have some offensive talent to go with what should be a very good line.

25. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Texans: Assuming he beats out Case Keenum, T.J. Yates and fourth-round draft pick Tom Savage for the job. Fitzpatrick once was quite good for about half a season in Buffalo. And he's got a ton of offensive skill position talent to play with here.

26. E.J. Manuel, Bills: Hello Sammy Watkins! Manuel has a pretty darn good trio of receivers now in Watkins, Robert Woods and Mike Williams.

27. Alex Smith, Chiefs: Your 2015 Week 1 starting quarterback in K.C.: Aaron Murray. Smith will dink-and-dunk and not throw many picks but also do nothing much exciting. The Chiefs are due a major step back. And if Jamaal Charles gets hurt? Yikes.

28. Chad Henne, Jaguars: The Jaguars will throw a lot because they won't be able to run at all. Toby Gerhart? Three yards at a time and that won't do it. The Jags also got two nice potential receivers in the draft in Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. I do believe that Jacksonville doesn't want to play Blake Bortles this year.

29. Geno Smith, Jets: Bump this up perhaps all the way to No. 21 if it's Michael Vick as the starter. But we all know that even if Vick wins the job, he won't stay on the field very long.

30. Matt Schaub, Raiders: He will certainly be an upgrade on Terrelle Pryor but there's not much talent at receiver or running back -- Darren McFadden is brittle and Maurice Jones-Drew is past his prime. Derek Carr will be starting by the end of the season.

31. Matt Cassel, Vikings: He'll hand off to Adrian Peterson until Teddy Bridgewater is ready.

32. Brian Hoyer/Johnny Manziel, Browns: This duo would be higher if not for the devastating loss of Josh Gordon, the release of Greg Little and the baffling decision not to draft a receiver. 

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