NFC West: Take Raiders Tempting Odds As The NFL Pick vs. Chiefs

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 31, 2015 3:29 PM GMT

While the Raiders are closing out their season, the Chiefs will be playing in the same timeframe as the Denver Broncos with whom they continue to battle for the Division lead.

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NFL Pick: Raiders +7
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs 4:25PM ET
Each week, I select an NFL underdog of 7 or more points, who I feel can win the game outright or at the worst, come inside the bloated number. Last week, our Big Dog Pick of the week was the Atlanta Falcons who, as 7 point underdog, ate the whole pie at home in knocking the Carolina Panthers from the 14-0 SU start of their season.  

 

Betting Preview
Today, the Oakland Raiders close their season by visiting the KC Chiefs for this 4:25 ET kickoff. While the Raiders are closing out their season, the Chiefs will be playing in the same timeframe as the Denver Broncos with whom they continue to battle for the Division lead. A win by the Chiefs, combined with a Denver loss, gives the AFC West Divisional title to KC and knocks the Broncos into the Wild Card spot.  

As a result, although the Chiefs have won 9 consecutive games with a 7-2 ATS mark, there is still work to be done. Already this year, 9/10 KC wins have come by 7 or more points. As dominant as that may sound, the noose is beginning to tighten for KC.  Their last 2 victories at home have hardly been impressive! Three weeks ago, as 10 point home chalk, they defeated San Diego (10-3) with the Chargers’ QB Rivers firing passes into the end zone in the closing minute to send the game to OT. Last week, they survived the Cleveland Browns (17-13) despite being outrushed by Cleveland 232-136 and outgained 363-258. It was the 4th time in the last 5 contests, that the Chiefs have been outgained. Earlier this season, the Chiefs beat the Raiders (34-20), but even in that contest they were outgained by the Raiders by 129 yards. Furthermore, it has not gone unnoticed by this bureau that the home team is now on a 9-32 ATS run in KC games (KC HC Reid has always been a great traveler). In short, though the Chiefs continue to win, the margins have narrowed and the dominance has begun to fade.  As such, playing with need, they are a pure play against in this spot.

Oakland is one of the big turnaround stories in the NFL this season. They have gone from 3-13 SU last year to a current 7-8 SU record, entering today’s revenge matchup. Oakland would like nothing more than to play spoiler for the KC Division title hopes, while reaching a momentum building .500 record for the season. Last week, they took a step toward that goal with a (23-20) home victory over San Diego. With 10 days’ rest and plenty of prep time, Oakland will be excited about the prospects of winning and covering their 7th game in 9 tries at this site.  Long-term the Raiders have covered 11/15 at Arrowhead. 

 

Final Selection
This is a prime big dog upset spot for a highly-motivated Oakland team against a KC team, whose dominance has faded down the stretch. I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL pick on the Oakland Raiders.