NFC Market Watch: Finding NFL Betting Value in Leading NFL Futures

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, July 14, 2015 3:09 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2015 3:09 PM UTC

The start of the NFL Regular Season is now less than two months away, so let’s take a look at some of the Future Markets and see if there are any apparent holes in some betting lines.

NFL Regular Season Week 1
Sunday, September 13: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:30 pm ET/5:30 pm PT): In this game last season in Arlington, the Cowboys won and covered the meager 4½-point spread, pounding the Giants, 31-21 in Week 7. Here in Week 1 in the coming 2015 Regular Season, Dallas is currently (Monday afternoon) anywhere from 4- (Station Casinos, Las Vegas) to 6-point favorites (Pinnacle) in this contest, the first Sunday Night Football telecast of the new season. In terms of perceived value, laying the 4 points with the Cowboys now at Station Casinos seems wise, with the line already moving higher offshore—usually a sign of the direction the number is heading. Trend-wise, Dallas (2-5 ATS as Home favorite in 2014) is 3-1 ATS L4 against the G-Men. Even with RB DeMarco Murray (Eagles) now gone and WR Dez Bryant squawking about a new contract and threatening to sit out games, expect America’s Team to beat New York NFC again by around 10 points, simply because of the site, situation and below average opponent.

NFL Pick: Cowboys -4 over Giants, Week 1 (Station Casinos)


NFL Regular Season Wins
New York Giants 8 Wins: Picking on the G-Men? Sure. Why not. This is Sports Gambling and identifying the perceived weak and betting against them before the Sheep come through the Big Gate is the whole point sometimes. And this one is an exercise in finding Wins on the Giants 2015 schedule. And, if they finish 8-8, you get your money back. So, are the Giants going to go 9-7 or better? (Waits for laugh.) Exactly. Here is New York’s (6-10 SU in 2014) schedule with Wins given to the Giants in the perceived close games: Week 1: at Dallas: Loss; Week 2: vs. Atlanta: Win; Week 3: vs. Washington: Win; Week 4: at Buffalo: Loss; Week 5: San Francisco: Win; Week 6: at Philadelphia: Loss; Week 7: vs. Dallas: Loss; Week 8: at New Orleans: Loss; Week 9: at Tampa Bay: Win; Week 10: New England: Loss; Week 11: Open Date; Week 12: at Washington: Win; Week 13: vs. Jets: Win; Week 14: at Miami: Loss; Week 15: Carolina: Loss; Week 16: at Minnesota: Loss; Week 17: Philadelphia: Loss. So, that’s only 6 forecasted Wins when giving the Giants the benefit of the doubt against NFC East cellar-dwellar Washington in both meetings as well as in games against the Falcons, Jets, 49ers and Buccaneers—all games the Giants opponents could very well win. With Eli Manning on the downswing, the Defense not the same as it used to be, a disenfranchised fan base,  and everything G-Men seemingly all about WR Odell Beckham these days, fading this team and wagering on them to win less than 8 games this Regular Season seems wise for the Futures Book player looking in from two months out.

NFL Pick: New York Giants Under 8 Regular Season Wins +120 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


2015/16 NFL Games of the Year—(Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Week 6—Sunday, October 18 (San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers; Odds: Packers -7): This one gets the nod for a number of reasons. First, the site. Lambeau Field in Green Bay provides one of the best Homefield Advantages in the NFL—if the not the best—and then toss in the Time Zone Difference (PDT to CDT), Midwest Fall Weather, rosters and ATS Trends and it seems everything points toward backing the Cheeseheads here in this spot and doing so now and at this fair price. The Packers (7/1 to win Super Bowl, BetVictor) should be either 4-1 or 5-0 SU—if they can beat the defending NFC Champion Seahawks in Green Bay in Week 2 in a rematch of the NFC Championship Game (Packers -3 Even, Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year)—heading into this Home date in mid-October, while San Diego will have had already played the Lions at Home (Week 1), the Bengals in Cincinnati (Week 2), the Vikings in Minneapolis (Week 3); the Browns at Home; and, the Steelers in Pittsburgh the week before this Packers game in Week 5. Nasty. The Bolts could be 2-3 maybe, making Oddsmakers (and the General Public) leery of San Diego (simply because of the rugged schedule start), and making what opened as a 7-point spread into maybe a -8, -8½ or maybe -9 by game day. We’ll see. In the L6 meetings against the Chargers, the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS, beating them 45-38 as 5½-point favorites in San Diego in 2011 the last time they played. And with precision QB Aaron Rodgers and WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, carving up the San Diego Defense for 37 or more points is likely while the Chargers should have trouble reaching 27. Squeeze the Cheese, please.

NFL Pick: Packers -7 over Chargers, Week 6 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2015 NFL Games of the Year)


NFL Super Bowl 50 Futures
Let’s make it a Fade the G-Men, Back the Pack quartet just because. Just because it makes the most sense if Value is what we’re theoretically after. And it’s a simple premise here: History, Logic, Probability, Human Nature and what has happened in the Offseason makes me think there will never be Odds as high as 7/1 (BetVictor) on the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl this season. It seems the NFC will again be a battle of the aforementioned Seattle Seahawks (+450, Bet365), with the Dallas Cowboys (6/1 to win NFC, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and possibly the Philadelphia Eagles (10/1) being the only two NFC teams who may be able to pose a feeble threat to more Seahawks-Packers domination in the conference. To me, Green Bay and Seattle have gotten a bit stronger while Dallas may dip some while the Eagles and Head Coach Chip Kelly are just staking too much on whomever wins the starting QB job. Again, the Packers probably won’t be 7/1 in a couple of months and those odds may even be hard to find right now, smack dab in the middle of July. This bet may also create a Hedge opportunity and Green Bay may very well win it this time around, motivated by Memories of that near-miss against the Seahawks last year. 

NFL Pick: Packers 7/1 to win Super Bowl (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

comment here