NFC East Battle to Offer NFL Betting Value: Cowboys vs. Giants

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 2:42 PM GMT

The Giants got ripped by the Eagles while their NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, shocked the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks but which team will be ready to cash in our NFL picks on Sunday afternoon?

New York Giants (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
The Giants were abominable on Sunday night and considering I can’t remember the last time I used the word abominable, that can’t be good. Eli Manning was sacked six times while the Giants looked sluggish, unprepared and undisciplined getting whistled for 10 penalties versus only three for the Eagles. When the dust settled the Giants were blanked 27-0 and now must trek westward ho as they take on their second consecutive divisional opponent when they meet the Dallas Cowboys.

New York was installed as 1 ½ point underdogs in NFL odds last week but this week the oddsmakers will be more generous due to their lackluster performance, Dallas’s stunning victory and the absence of Giants big play producer Victor Cruz who was carted off the field in agony with what was eventually reported as a torn patellar tendon. Cruz’s season is almost certainly over and taking a weapon of his vast potential off the table puts the Giants offense at a distinct disadvantage going forward.

 

Dallas Cowboys (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Well how ‘bout them Cowboys! Dallas stormed CenturyLink Field, the seemingly invincible capital of the National Football League, and rode out with a stunning 30-23 victory as 9 ½ point underdogs in NFL odds. If nothing else, this proved Dallas is a contender not a pretender this season, and demonstrated their resilience by rallying from an early 10-0 deficit while Tony Romo shook off the effects of a hellacious first-quarter hit by Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner and led his team to victory.

The Cowboys are not only boasting the best ground attack (averaging 160.3 yards per game) in the NFL led by DeMarco Murray, Romo is targeting slot receivers when the pocket gets hot instead of robotically launching to his deep threat Dez Bryant. Murray has been integrated into the game plan as a relief valve and is doing everything asked of him. Romo looked towards his big tight ends when he was deep in the red zone and hit both Gavin Escobar and Jason Witten for short touchdown passes last week. Defensively the Cowboys bottled up the Seahawks and made life miserable for an unimpressive Russell Wilson under center for Seattle.

 

Free NFL Pick
Unless you are a dyed-in-the-wool Giants fan it is hard not to look at this game and just blindly back the Dallas Cowboys. They were immense against Seattle last week while the Giants were positively putrid. The Boyz also have home field advantage in their favor while their opponent is 1-2 straight up and against the number in NFL odds on the highway this season. It’s downright impossible not to love the Cowboys to crush their suddenly vulnerable NFC East adversaries. But let’s take a look at a few betting trends shall we?

Giants have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Giants are 39-21 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they're not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 31-20 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

The underdog is 47-19 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 10-20 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 3-15 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Despite all that historical data the fact is that Dallas is better than the Giants in virtually all of the statistical categories that matter this year:

Rushing Yards – Cowboys (1st – 160.3/game) vs. Giants (17th – 115.0/game)

Passing Yards - Cowboys (16th – 238.3/game) vs. Giants (27th – 214.3/game)

Rushing Yards Allowed – Cowboys (17th – 115.0/game) vs. Giants (18th – 116.3/game)

Passing yards Allowed – Cowboys (12th – 227.5/game) vs. Giants (24th – 261.7/game)

Maybe I’m just not sharp enough to consider that this may be a trap game for Dallas after a huge win last week but I also know that they know this is a pivotal divisional game against a hated opponent. Bet on Dallas with your Week 7 NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Dallas -5 ½ at Pinnacle.com.

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