New York Jets vs. New England Patriots: Thursday Night NFL Picks

Jeff Grant

Thursday, September 12, 2013 11:40 AM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 12, 2013 11:40 AM GMT

New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan is always trying to get the best of Bill Belichick, but he’ll have a rookie under center when taking on the New England Patriots Thursday.


Let’s take a closer look at the NFL odds for this AFC East matchup at Gillette Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 8:25 p.m. ET on the NFL Network.

Take a look at our Opening Betting Odds Report for this matchup.

A surprising victory

New York pulled off an improbable 18-17 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as four-point home underdogs in Week 1, while going UNDER the betting total of 40.

Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith completed 24 of 38 passes for 256 yards, with tight end Kellen Winslow being his top target in the middle of the field—finishing with seven catches for 79 yards.

NFL handicappers will find that the Jets are 10-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs against division opponents.

Fortunate

New England was a heavy favorite to capture the division ground before its regular-season opener, but it was fortunate to come away with a 23-21 victory over the Buffalo Bills as 10-point road favorites Sunday.

The Patriots have won their last 11 games against AFC East foes, while they’ll also look to extend their regular-season win streak to six games against the Jets in this affair.

In its last 12 games as double-digit favorites against division opponents, the franchise has covered the number in just three of those opportunities.

Protect the rock and blanket Edelman

Jets head coach Rex Ryan is capable of developing a winning formula for this affair, which will likely focus on Smith protecting the football and cornerback Antonio Cromartie drawing the assignment of covering New England wide receiver Julian Edelman.

New York allowed New England to gain 856 yards in its two meetings a season ago, but it won’t have to game plan in trying to stop numerous threats that its opponents possessed in the past—including tight ends Rob Gronkowski (injury) and Aaron Hernandez (jail).

Dominant at home

The Patriots are still one of the better teams in the NFL due to having Tom Brady under center, who has thrown for 13 touchdowns and just a single interception in his last five regular season games in this series.

New England is also a dominating 28-5 at home versus division opponents since 2002—the best such mark in the league over that span (Indianapolis Colts, 27-6).

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Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers look as the first-half total with their NFL picks, as the Jets will likely play things close to the vest early, while Ryan should have a plan in limiting Brady’s attack early on.

It’s also important to point out that the weather forecasts suggest a 30-to-50 percent chance of thunderstorms throughout the game, and 10-15 mph winds. 

NFL Pick:  Under 21.5 First Half

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