New York Jets 2017 Schedule Analysis: Downward Spiral Continues

New York Jets players

Tuesday, May 9, 2017 4:03 PM GMT

The Jets 5.5 win total is their lowest since at least the 2000 season. With their toughest schedule on paper since 2009, does New York go over or under the mark? Let's review the dates.
 

Last year was supposed to be the year for Jets head coach Todd Bowels. After missing the playoffs with a 10-6 record in 2015, the front office splashed the cash in free agency with 10 signings to make a postseason push. The franchise fell on its face, plagued by aging stars, a leaky defense, and inconsistent quarterback play.  New York finished 5-11 overall. The crash came hard, too. The Jets lost nearly half of their games (7) by double digits.

Despite what some in the Jets organization espouse, they are in rebuild mode. General manager Mike Maccagnan axed some big-priced veterans in the offseason, including center Nick Mangold, cornerback Darrelle Revis and wide receiver Brandon Marshall. The NFL is cognizant of the fact. The team, despite representing the league’s largest market, is booked for one prime-time game all season. What’s this tell us? This a bad squad not suited for a national audience.

Oddsmakers believe the Jets are bad also, setting a 5.5 over/under win total. Only the Browns (4), Bears (5), and 49ers (5) have lower expectations. Here’s a look at when the wins and losses will likely occur:

 Wins You Can Count On

Stretching back to 1989, the Jets have gone winless one time (2008) against division rivals. So, which AFC East team will they beat and where? Either home date against the Dolphins (-2) in Week 3 or Bills (-1.5) in Week 9 looks a good bet. In fact, if the Jets top Miami early in the season, they could get realistically get off to a 3-2 start. In Week 4, New York hosts the Jaguars, laying 1 point. It follows up that winnable contest with a Week 5 road trip to Cleveland, advanced lines showing this matchup a pick ‘em. The schedule is much, much tougher afterward minus a Week 16 visit by the Chargers (pick ‘em)

 

Games That Could Go Either Way

The Jets schedule, which is their hardest on paper since 2009, is loaded with all-or-nothing affairs. Very few contests set up for a competitive contest with the win going either way. Only one date stands out: a Week 12 home contest versus the Panthers as a field-goal pup.

 Real Trouble Spots

New York has plenty of blowout dates on the schedule. Since 1989, NFL underdogs of more than 4 points win just 24.7 percent of regular-season contests. Advance lines list the Jets facing 10 such encounters: Week1 at the Bills (-6), Week 2 at the Raiders (-8.5), Week 6 versus the Patriots (-9.5), Week 7 at the Dolphins (-8.5), Week 8 versus the Falcons (-7), Week 10 at the Buccaneers (-8), Week 13 versus the Chiefs (-4.5), Week 14 at the Broncos (-9), Week 15 at the Saints (-6.5) and the Week 17 finale at the Patriots (no line).

 

Bottom Line

It takes a special kind of bad to win five games or fewer in the NFL. Is New York that wretched? It is tough to forecast. With books dangling the hook on the win total, the bet is a pass. A 6-10 record looks just as likely as a 5-11 season for the Jets. If you can get the number minus the half, play it over/under either way.

 

2017 Regular Season Schedule

09/10/17 at Buffalo Ralph 1:00 PM L

09/17/17 at Oakland 4:05 PM L

09/24/17 Miami 1:00 PM L

10/01/17 Jacksonville 1:00 PM W

10/08/17 at Cleveland 1:00 PM W

10/15/17 New England 1:00 PM L

10/22/17 at Miami  1:00 PM L

10/29/17 Atlanta 1:00 PM L

11/02/2017 (Thu) Buffalo 8:25 PM W

11/12/17 at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM L

11/26/17 Carolina 1:00 PM L

12/03/17 Kansas City 1:00 PM L

12/10/17 at Denver 4:05 PM L

12/17/17 at New Orleans 1:00 PM L

12/24/17 LA Chargers 1:00 PM W

12/31/17 at New England 1:00 PM L

 

Check Out An In-Depth Analysis Of Jets 2017 Schedule