New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds & Pick - Sunday September 11 2016

Giants Players Trying To Take The Ball From Cowboys TE Jason Witten

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, September 10, 2016 11:37 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 10, 2016 11:37 PM GMT

This game has featured some huge line moves in the last week, and our NFL handicapper thinks one line has moved too far and is ready to pounce.

2016 NFL Record: 2-0, +2.00 Units

N.Y. Giants vs Dallas Cowboys  
The New York Giants start their 2016 season within the NFC East, as they travel to Jerry World in Texas to meet the Dallas Cowboys. Games between these two teams have been hotly contested over the last few seasons; however, the situation coming into this game has large wagers coming in on one side of the ball. This is telling, given that the line is currently at Pick’em, after opening at -4 in favor of the home team Cowboys. Of course, there is reason for all of this action on the Giants in that the Seahawks broke Tony Romo in the first preseason game and he is out of action. Mississippi State rookie, Dak Prescott, will get the start for the Cowboys opposite of Eli Manning in Week 1. Not only has the line moved 4 points in the Giants favor, after Romo got hurt the total dropped from 49 points to as low as 45.5 points at 5Dimes.

The Dallas Cowboys feature likely the best offensive line in the league, which should take some pressure off of Prescott and fellow rookie running back, Ezekiel Elliot. In addition to Elliot, Prescott will still have TE Jason Witten and WR Dez Bryant to bail him out, although, with the offensive line of the Cowboys, the rookie QB could be afforded another second or two. That’s huge for a rookie quarterback in this league; however, if Dak can’t cut it, Mark Sanchez would be inserted into maybe the best situation he has ever found himself in his career.

On defense, the Cowboys have three suspensions to consider, with top pass rusher Demarcus Lawrence, speed end rusher, Randy Gregory, and linebacker Rolando McClain missing this game. The Cowboys have invested a lot of money in their secondary and not much on their front line, a tactic of roster construction much like the Seattle Seahawks. But they are incredibly young, averaging only 26 years of age. They will have to mature quickly to improve on their 28.4 points per game given up at home last year.


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The Giants look to win their first season opener in 5 years in this game, and will look to veteran QB, Eli Manning, to get them there. The suspensions for Dallas on defense should help the Giants’ offensive line provide Eli with some more time, as they struggled in the preseason. Victor Cruz is back for the Giants after missing quite some time and will line up opposite of Odell Beckham Jr. as a great dual threat on the outside. If there is a weakness on the Giants offense, it is the running game. Starting running back Rashad Jennings only put up 1.1 yard per carry in the preseason. This could force the Giants to rely on Eli and the passing game even more.

On defense the latest news for the Giants that had the fan base enraged was the release of starting linebacker, Jasper Brinkley, to make room for 3rd string QB, Josh Johnson. But the Giants spent a bunch of money in free agency to bolster their defense. It’s just a matter of if those players will gel immediately or not under first year coach Ben McAdoo.

I think the line move here is dependent on a thesis that the Cowboy’s offense won’t be able to score with their rookie QB, but I disagree. The trend between these two teams has been higher scoring games, as evidence in the 7-0 O/U trend favoring the Over in the last seven games in Dallas, and a 20-8-1 overall trend favoring the Over. The Week 1 trends for both teams also favor the Over, with the Giants going 6-1 and the Cowyboys going 9-4, respectively. With the line move bringing the number down into value territory, I’m hammering the Over here at 45.5 points as a Week 1 NFL pick at 5Dimes.

NFL Pick: Over 45.5
Best Line Offered: At 5Dimes
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