New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears: Thursday Night NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Thursday, October 10, 2013 12:33 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 10, 2013 12:33 PM GMT

SBR Forum previews the Thursday Night Football battle between the New York Giants and the Chicago Bears to help you find the best value for your NFL picks. Does the betting total or spread look to offer the best value on the Week 6 NFL odds boards?

The total on this Thursday night contest has been going up and down like the autumn weather in the Windy City. When the betting odds went up, the money flooded the other way like the New York Stock Exchange and vise versa. Let’s figure how this might play out for those making NFL picks.

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The Giants should have a chance to not suck

This might be the right opponent at the right time for New York. The Bears defense line has been using a ‘Welcome’ mat with all the new faces taking over for Chicago’s wounded players who are on the shelf. 

This should reduce the amount of pressure Eli Manning would face and give him the added time to find his talented receiving core and enable the Giants to move the ball down the field. 

The G-Men are basically a big play (positive and negative this season) team with no running game. The 2013 Bears have yielded 25 passing plays of 20-plus yards, fourth most in the NFL. Manning and company will have the chance to take advantage of this.

Also Check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 6 Value Picks

NFL Picks: Week 6 Fades & Games to Avoid

Chicago, start your engines 

As mentioned previously here at SBR Forum, the best way to beat a bad team is to pounce on them and take away their will. This would be something different for the slow-starting Bears who have exhibited a lack of patience and commitment on offense. 

If Matt Forte doesn’t pick up five yards a carry in his four attempts, the Chicago offense moves on to something else, instead of following the game plan. 

The Bears should feature Forte and tight Martellus Bennett early to soften up New York early, drawing their defense towards the line of scrimmage. Once this is established, Jay Cutler can start winging the pigskin to the likes of Brandon Marshall and an improving Alshon Jeffries. 

If Cutler’s crew is aggressive and can take charge in the first quarter by say 10-0 or 14-0, the defense can start to dictate what they want to do and New York might start thinking about flying home early.

Review our thoughts on the Giants & Bears Opening NFL Odds

Reading the quarterbacks 

Manning is suffering through a difficult season. This week, his three running backs will be glacier-slow Brandon Jacobs, Da’Rel Scott (who was cut the week prior) and rookie Michael Cox. With an offensive line not performing even to a modest level, everything falls to Eli to make the offense run smoothly, which it clearly cannot. 

Cutler has been placed in a tough situation by Marshall, who has been vocal about being targeted for more throws despite being double-teamed. Cutler might feel compelled to force feed the ball to Marshall, which could result in positive or negative results depending on the coverage and the accuracy.

The Total is moving in all directions

For the most part, the vast majority of sportsbooks opened this contest at 46 points. Once the betting public got their hands on these NFL odds, the number zoomed to 48 by Wednesday morning, only to recede back to 47 points later that day. This has to cause a bit of consternation for those making sports picks.

Read our NFL Picks: Giants vs. Bears Betting the Spread for another free play.

Total Mania 

The Giants are 3-2 OVER this season and the Bears are 4-1 OVER. In each case the high volume of forced or committed turnovers is essentially in direct correlation to the totals result.

New York is 9-2 UNDER in road games since last season (2-1 this year). All the miscues on offense (20 turnovers is just the start) has inhibited Big Blue from maximizing their offense potential and they are 7-0 UNDER versus winning teams. 

Chicago only had 51 plays last week, which contributed to their first contest below the NFL odds release. NFL football handicappers are aware the Bears are 17-6 UNDER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last outing. 

My sense is both offenses will make enough mistakes to negatively impact the total. 

Free NFL Pick – Play Under 47

 

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