New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Sunday Night NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Monday, October 19, 2015 1:05 PM GMT

New England returned from their bye week to crush Dallas, and now they're 4-0. However, they have had this trip to Indianapolis circled since the schedule came out.

Opening Odds & Line Movement

Open: -7 +106 at Pinnacle
The NFL odds for this game bounced around between -7 and -7.5 for the Patriots all week, but then it jumped to -10 on Thursday as there is still some concern about Luck playing this game. Bettors saw value in the Patriots. Another reason might be that the New England offense is second in the league in points scored per game behind Arizona, and the Indianapolis defense is tied for 16th in points allowed. The Patriots are playing with a massive chip on their shoulder that was put there by the Colts and they're going to run up the score if they get a chance to do so.

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Injuries
T Nate Solder is now out for the rest of the season because of a pectoral injury, which is a big blow for the offensive line as someone has to protect Tom Brady's blind side. LB Donta' Hightower might be out of this game with a rib injury, and CB Tarell Brown has a foot problem that is likely to keep him out on Sunday night.

For the Colts, it is all about Luck, who practiced this week with his bad shoulder, and reports are that he still might be out for this game after missing the last two. However, it is a good sign that he is practicing and the Colts are going to do everything in their power to get him out there on Sunday night because if they don't, they don't have a chance of winning this game.

 

Trends
The Patriots are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, but they're 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 at home.

New England is 7-3 SU (including six wins in a row) and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Colts, who are 5-5 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 at home against the Patriots.

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