New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Free Week 5 NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Saturday, October 10, 2015 4:51 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015 4:51 PM GMT

New England returns after their bye week, and they needed a rest from scoring 119 points over their first three games. Dallas is crashing to Earth after losing in New Orleans and are now 2-2.

Opening Odds & Line Movement

Open: -8.5 -105 at Pinnacle
The Patriots opened up as 8.5-point favorites on the road, and then the NFL odds moved to -9, then -10. It slipped back down to -9 and is now back at -8.5, but it wouldn't shock anyone if it went back to -10 for the Patriots. It all starts under center, where the Patriots have Tom Brady and the Cowboys have Brandon Weeden. The defense is also struggling as there is more pressure on them as Dallas has allowed 64 points in two games. And the Patriots are coming off a bye week? This could be a bad, bad week for the Cowboys, whose season started with so much promise and now they're just trying to hold it together until Tomy Romo returns.

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Patriots vs. Cowboys Spread

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Patriots vs. Cowboys Money Line

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Patriots vs. Cowboys Total

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Injuries
The Patriots are also healthy with the exception of OL Ryan Wendall, who has an undisclosed injury, but he practiced on Monday. More bad news for the Cowboys.

It keeps getting worse for Dallas as LB Sean Lee has a concussion that he suffered against the Saints, and while he is probably their best defensive player, Lee is also incredibly injury-prone. RB Lance Dunbar tore his ACL and is gone for the season, and WR Brice Butler has a hamstring problem that will likely keep him out for a couple weeks. You would be hard-pressed to find another team that has had Dallas' luck when it comes to injuries.

 

Trends
New England is a stellar 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, and they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. The Cowboys are 2-4 ATS in their last six games, and they're only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home. The total is set at 49.5 (up from an opening total of 49), and the Patriots have gone over in four of their last six, while the Cowboys have gone under in four of their last six.

The Cowboys are 4-4 SU and 4-3 ATS in eight meetings with the Patriots, who have won the last four SU. Dallas is 2-1 SU and ATS in three home games against New England.

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