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NFL MVP Odds and Picks 2022: Fresh Face Leads Favorites and it's Time to Ignore Non-QBs

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NFL MVP Odds and Picks 2022: Fresh Face Leads Favorites and it's Time to Ignore Non-QBs
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills looks to throw a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

Last season, Aaron Rodgers won the fourth NFL MVP Award of his career and his second in a row. In order to determine which players represent value at their offseason odds, we examine the NFL MVP futures market and assess the top picks.

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp had an exceptional season in 2021, and he was still available at around +15000 to win the NFL MVP late in the season. Does it really make sense to buy anyone in the NFL MVP market who is not a quarterback early in the process? I would argue no, and we have basically drawn a line in the sand that this is a quarterback award.

It is also important to note how the voting process works for this award. There are 50 voters, and each casts one vote for the winner. It is not possible for you to win this award because you received more second- and third-place votes than anyone else. This is important because it emphasizes the importance of distinguishing yourself as the best player in the NFL.

In placing futures bets, you must always consider two factors: will this player actually win the market, and are their odds only going to become shorter from here on out, relative to the early number? If the answer is yes to both of these questions, then you should consider purchasing that specific player.

In this article we analyze the NFL MVP futures market in search of value picks in the early odds.


NFL MVP Picks: Favorites

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+700 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

As Allen enters his fourth season in the NFL, it seems like it will be a matter of when and not if he will win the NFL MVP Award. Allen has impressive passing and rushing statistics, as well as a team that should finish near the top of the standings. You will undoubtedly want Allen to be part of your portfolio; however, the most difficult part will be deciding when to buy him for the best possible price.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+900 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Mahomes is not a quarterback I would be interested in purchasing for the MVP award, particularly at a price of +900. For someone who will be without his former primary weapon in Tyreek Hill, who is now with the Miami Dolphins, this is a short price. In 2018, Mahomes set a very high bar for himself with his 50 passing touchdowns and 5,097 passing yards. Mahomes does not appear to be a candidate whose price will only get shorter than the current +900.

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000 via DraftKings)

The Buccaneers finished the 2021 season 13-4, Brady threw for a career-high 5,316 yards, and he had his highest touchdown total in 14 years last year with a league-high 43. This translated to only 10 votes for Brady for MVP, compared to the 39 for Rodgers. Brady's voter fatigue is real and with a price of +1000, I will look elsewhere in this market.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+1000 via FanDuel)

I have no interest in betting on Rodgers to win the NFL MVP in 2022. There are too many other strong candidates to even consider Rodgers as an option for a three-peat. Rodgers rubbed a lot of people the wrong way at the end of last season and voters will feel the effects of voter fatigue. Rodgers' days of winning the MVP award are over in my eyes. The +1000 odds are a complete fade for me in this market.

NFL MVP Picks: Contenders

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+1200 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Like Allen, Herbert is someone I am looking to add to my portfolio when it comes to the MVP award. Pro Football Focus gave Herbert a higher grade than Rodgers last season. Herbert has the stats of an elite player, but the narrative that will push him over the top and propel him to winning the MVP is the Chargers winning the AFC West. At +1200, I am not yet ready to invest in Herbert, but he is definitely on my watch list.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+1300 via Caesars)

In the future, Burrow is likely to be in the running for the NFL MVP Award and it is a matter of time before he wins it. As Burrow will be a significant liability for the sportsbooks and a popular wager among fans, it will be very difficult to find an advantageous number for him this season. I am interested in investing in Burrow, but not at the current price of +1300. As a point of comparison, Burrow was trading at around +5000 in the middle of last season.

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos (+1600 via Caesars)

As soon as Wilson's trade to the Broncos was announced, bettors jumped on his MVP odds; however, Wilson has never generated a meaningful campaign for the award despite impressive stats. During his entire career, Wilson has never received one MVP vote. If he can elevate the Broncos into a Super Bowl contender, he will have a strong narrative for the MVP, but I prefer to evaluate the Broncos and Wilson first before investing in Wilson's MVP odds.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+1600 via Caesars)

Having won Super Bowl LVI with the Rams last season, I believe that Stafford will start to be viewed in a different light. There has always been a perception that he was a player who could not win the big game and padded his stats. This narrative may disappear as a result of the Super Bowl victory and he may be able to make a compelling argument for the 2022 MVP.

Stafford will have plenty of opportunities to gain a great deal of attention with the Rams consistently being in the spotlight. Stafford will also benefit from having no voter fatigue despite being a veteran in the league. Stafford has never received a vote for the NFL MVP and he did not win the Super Bowl MVP Award.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+1800 via Caesars)

Prescott is the first player for whom we see some significant variation in the odds for winning NFL MVP. FanDuel opened him at +1200, whereas Caesars opened him at +1800, a difference that is not insignificant. Although Prescott had impressive statistics in both 2019 and 2021, he didn’t receive a single MVP vote those seasons.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+2200 via FanDuel)

During the first six games of the season, Murray will be without star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins due to a performance-enhancing drug suspension. I believe the Cardinals as a team are heading in the wrong direction, and Murray is someone you will want to avoid betting on this season. There are much better choices available in this price range.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+2500 via PointsBet)

Since Baltimore's 2021 season ended on a disappointing note, Jackson and the Ravens come into the 2022 season slightly under the radar. In fact, I do not doubt Jackson's ability to produce MVP numbers one more time in his career, but I fear that the voters will choose Allen, Burrow, or Herbert instead. I would not completely rule out the possibility of purchasing a ticket on Jackson to win MVP, but the price would have to be worthwhile.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (+2800 via DraftKings)

Watson is someone I expect to fade in this market in 2022. The offseason allegations against Watson are still fresh in everyone's minds regardless of how the legal proceedings unfold. At the end of the day, it is a voting award and we are attempting to handicap those who are voting. Watson's odds should be much higher than +2800 in order for anyone to consider buying in.

NFL MVP Picks: Longshots

Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (+3500 via Caesars)

Carr becomes very intriguing when we consider some of the longer odds among quarterbacks to win the NFL MVP. The combination of new head coach Josh McDaniels and Carr, along with the addition of wide receiver Davante Adams, could potentially lead to a special season. Carr received six MVP votes in 2016, which is five more than Wilson and Prescott have combined to receive in their careers.

Carr playing in the AFC West could be perceived as a negative, however, in the end, the quarterback who wins this division will have a significant advantage when it comes to the voting process. I am not running to bet the +2200 odds DraftKings has posted on Carr, but the +3500 available at Caesars has me intrigued.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+4000 via PointsBet)

Find someone with a wider range of opening odds than Hurts, I will wait. Hurts' odds are as short as +1800 at DraftKings and as high as +4000 at PointsBet. He is +2500 at FanDuel and +3000 at Caesars.

Even though the Eagles have added wide receiver AJ Brown and there is a lot of hype surrounding Hurts this season, I will need a price much higher than +4000 before I consider investing in Hurts to win the MVP.

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+6000 via PointsBet)

Lance's popularity in this market is astounding to me, as we have yet to witness anything from the second-year pro to indicate he is a legitimate MVP contender in this league. The fascination in Lance may be connected to the idea that people hope to strike that Jackson longshot magic twice. Lance is not someone I would consider pre-flopping in this market, particularly at a price of +6000.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+7500 via Caesars)

Cousins has the weapons on the Vikings to put up MVP-type numbers, but it is difficult to envision a scenario where voters would view him as the NFL's best quarterback. In order for anyone to take him seriously, the Vikings will need to capture the No. 1 seed in the NFC and dethrone Rodgers and the Packers as NFC North champions. If you are interested in taking a shot on Cousins, I would wait until the number becomes longer. It shouldn't take long to locate a +10000.

NFL MVP Former Winners

Statistics of Former NFL MVPs

Where to Bet on NFL MVP Odds

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