Must Watch-Must Bet: Top Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Darin Zank

Sunday, September 20, 2015 2:14 PM GMT

Week 1 of this NFL season treated us well, with a pair of easy winners out of our three free NFL picks; what might we have cooked up for Week 2? Read inside to find out this week winning plays.

After a successful opening weekend of NFL betting, with only a late Denver field goal keeping us from going 3-0 with our Free NFL picks, we go looking for more Sunday. Here's what we've come up with for Week 2.

 

Despicable Patriots Invade Buffalo
Tom “The Deflater” Brady and his New England outfit visit Buffalo for the first of their two annual AFC East battles with the Bills.

The Patriots opened this season with that 28-21 victory over Pittsburgh two Thursdays ago, allowing a late touchdown to push the spread as seven-point home favorites. New England never trailed, at one point leading 21-3, and while it got outrushed and outgained on the night, most of the Steelers yardage came as they played catch-up.

Brady completed 25-of-32 pass attempts for 288 yards and four scores, three of them to Gronk.

Buffalo, meanwhile, opened this season with a convincing 27-14 victory over Indianapolis last week, winning outright as a short home dog. The Bills led 24-0 before the Colts hit the board, outrushed them 147-64 and harassed Indy QB Andrew Luck all day, with two sacks and two interceptions. Meanwhile, Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor completed 14 of 19 throws without a pick, and rushed for 41 yards.

The Patriots own the recent rivalry with Buffalo, winning six of the last seven meetings straight up, going 4-3 ATS, 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings at Ralph Wilson Stadium

Bottom-line here; we base some of our NFL picks on what teams did last week, and we don't mean riding the wave, but instead, riding the roller coaster. The Bills were fired up for their first game under Coach Ryan, and we won't be surprised if they suffer a letdown, to some degree, this week. Also, New England is playing on a couple extra days rest. Yes, it's difficult siding with the Evil Empire, but we'll go with Darth Belichick and his Patriots.

NFL Pick: New England +1 (-110) at Pinnacle.

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Ravens Rumble with Raiders
Baltimore completes its season-opening two-game trip through parts of the AFC West when it takes on Oakland at the Coliseum.

Baltimore began this season last week with a tough 19-13 loss at Denver, missing the cover as a 4.5-point road dog. The Ravens led that game 13-9 late into the third quarter, until quarterback Joe Flacco tossed a pick-six that gave the Broncos the lead. Baltimore still owned the cover, but Denver kicked a field goal with three minutes to go to take a six-point advantage. The Ravens then drove into the Broncos red zone in the waning moments, but Flacco threw another interception on a third down with the clock running out.

So Baltimore lost a game in which it didn't allow an offensive touchdown.

The Raiders, meanwhile, lost last week at home to Cincinnati 33-13. Oakland trailed 33-0 before it hit the board, got outgained by 150 yards, outrushed 127-63 and whiffed on the cover as a three-point home dog.

Last year the Ravens ranked fourth in the league in net rushing at +38 yards per game, while the Raiders ranked second-worst in net rushing (-42 YPG) and sixth-worst in average time of possession. And not all that much has changed since then.

We like Baltimore, on the road, where the spread is a little more amenable.

NFL Pick: Ravens -6 (-105) at Heritage.

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Best of the Rest
San Diego roared back from an early 18-point deficit last week to beat Detroit 33-28, but we're still not convinced the Chargers can run the ball. Cincinnati, meanwhile, ran for a buck-27 last week against Oakland. We like the home-standing Bengals at -3 (-120) at BetOnline.

Jacksonville managed just 265 yards, one touchdown and one field goal last week against Carolina, and now goes up against probably a better defense in Miami. We like the Dolphins, giving the 5.5 points (-105) at JustBet.

Finally, the Jets may have found a quarterback in bearded veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who tossed two touchdown passes and managed a good game in a victory over Cleveland last week. Meanwhile, Indianapolis looked weak at Buffalo, perhaps exposing itself for what it really is; a mediocre team with a quarterback who can't do it alone. For Monday night we like New York plus the seven points (-110) at Bovada.