It is officially crunch time for NFL season-long prop picks. For the players’ side, here are 3 more valuable props, and all of the NFL odds found here are from Bovada sportsbook.
Cam Newton O/U 5 ½ Rushing Touchdowns
When Cam Newton finished his rookie season with 14 touchdowns, the expectations to follow were almost unachievable. Newton might have arguably gotten close last season with 30 total touchdowns, but his ground work has steadily declined every year in the league now. However it’s not for a lack of attempts, as Newton’s carried the ball over 100 times per season in all three years. He has also never finished with less than six touchdowns, and after a down two seasons on the ground for Newton, he could be in line for a revival in that area. The Panthers don’t have many reliable options at the goal line in the passing game, so the best method may be just to pound it in. No one is a better goal line option on this team than Newton, and I expect the Panthers to use him that way. The ankle surgery and rib fracture scares me a little bit, but it’s a long season, and Newton is a tough guy.
My Free NFL Props Pick: Bet over 5 ½ rush TDs (-115)
Demaryius Thomas O/U 1350 Receiving Yards
If you read my article on last minute NFL picks, as well as several other this offseason, you’ll know I’m quite high on Demaryius Thomas this season. If Peyton Mannign can have just something close to what he did last season, Thomas has a chance to lead the league in receicnv yards. He had over 1400 last season, and he did it with fewer targets and receptions than around eight other guys. If he gets another 30 targets or so this season, he could ave over 1500 yards and the receiving crown. Just over 1350 yards is still a pretty nice value from Bovada. The loss of Wes Welker for at least the short term might help a little bit, and the emergence of Julius Thomas and addition of Emmanuel Sanders will not leach more than some red zone looks. All of the 3rd down looks will go to Thomas, and it will add up to more than 1350 yards this year.
My Free NFL Props Pick: Bet over 1350 receiving yards (-115)
Jordy Nelson O/U 1150 Receiving Yards
Another big favorite of mine is Jordy Nelson, who last season put up a top ten year with the backup quarterback throwing to him for half the season. Now with Aaron Rodgers back, and James Jones out of town, Nelson should be in for another huge season. More than 1150 yards should be attainable, especially if Rodgers is throwing for close to 5000 yards passing. Randall Cobb and the rookie tight end Richard Rodgers are the only other reliable passing threats in this offense, and Nelson is clearly still the number one option. Last season he had over 1300 yards receiving, and I think he can have more than that in 2014. Take the 'over' for your NFL pick.
My Free NFL Props Pick: Bet over 1150 receiving yards (-115)