We track the movers and shakers in week 3 NFL betting markets, the so-called dress rehearsal for the regular season. What moves if any are meaningful and what do the consensus betting polls reveal.
NFL Preseason Week 3 Preview
Two weeks of the preseason are in the books. While there were some big wins for the public, some surprises and close calls too, the bookies did well for the most part. How will the public vs. bookies do in week 3, the highly anticipated dress rehearsal week of the preseason? Let’s see what the numbers say ahead of Thursday’s kick-off.
NFL Thursday, August 25
Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins, Florida Citrus Bowl, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
Opening Line: Dolphins -3, Over/Under Total 43.5
Midweek Line: Dolphins -1, Over/Under Total 43
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Falcons 57.1%
Preview: Although the bookies opened the market with the Dolphins favoured at home, the public is of the opposite opinion and siding with the Falcons. With the balance tipping in favour of the road underdogs, the market has seen some considerable movement with the Dolphins whittling down to -1 on the NFL odds board.
Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks, CenturyLink Field, 10 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under Total 44.5
Midweek Line: Seahawks -5.5, Over/Under Total 44
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Cowboys 54.6%
Preview: Although the Cowboys are receiving the bulk of the spread bets since open doors – to the tune of 54.6% – the NFL betting line appears to be moving against them. They Cowboys are backed out even further from +4.5 to +5.5. That’s an indication of sharp money/syndicate betting/wise guys, one or all flocking towards the Seahawks. It remains to be seen what late money comes down the wire, whether there might be some contrarian activity to send the NFL line careening in the other direction. The mere possibility of such an occurrence should prompt bettors looking to bank on the Cowboys to do so quickly.
NFL Friday, August 26
New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers, Bank of America Stadium, 7:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Panthers -3.5, Over/Under Total 45
Midweek Line: Panthers -3.5, Over/Under Total 45
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Patriots 55.4%
Preview: It’s no surprise the Patriots have the majority of early spread bettors. That’s often the NFL betting trend where the Patriots are concerned – the public’s beloved team, a crush that comes to the detriment of NFL bettors as the markets have to consistently adjust to that volume of betting by serving up inflated NFL lines for the Patriots. In any event, those don’t put the public off. More's the shame. As it is, the NFL betting outlook on this game though seems steady. We’ll see what happens here later in the week if some late Panthers money does the trick and flips the script.
Buffalo Bills vs Washington Redskins, FedEx Field, 7:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Redskins -3, Over/Under Total 43.5
Midweek Line: Redskins -2.5, Over/Under Total 43
Early Consensus ATS Betting: 50-50
Preview: Of all the games on the NFL odds board, the clash between the Bills and Redskins is attracting even betting according to consensus betting stats. Both are coming off wins in week 2, but the feeling of uncertainty about the merit of those results prevails. Were the Bills as good as the 21-0 score or were they only as good as their opponent was bad. It seems that betting is leaning towards the former as the line is moving ever so slightly against the home faves, Redskins.
Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Raymond James Stadium, 8 p.m. ET (CBS)
Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5, Over/Under Total 41.5
Midweek Line: Buccaneers -3.5, Over/Under Total 42.5
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Bucs 54.4%
Preview: The Bucs have 54.4% of early spread bets. We can conclude that the public and bookmakers are on the side for the moment, prompting little to no movement on the NFL odds board. There has been movement on the total market odds though as the public bets up the game to 42.5 % with over 70% of consensus betting pounding the OVER.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 8 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Saints -1, Over/Under Total 45
Midweek Line: Saints -2, Over/Under Total 45.5
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Saints 69%
Preview: The Saints are something of a popular team in public betting circles as well. Perhaps, not as fancied as the Patriots but there’s a sentimentality to the betting when a matchup involves the Saints. As such, it’s prudent to wade into these markets with care. The Saints have 69% of the market share, which is a rather significant share of the market. As per, the NFL betting line moves in their favour from -1 to -2.
Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers, Levi’s Stadium, 10 p.m. ET
Opening Line: 49ers +1.5, Over/Under Total 46.5
Midweek Line: Niners -2, Over/Under Total 46.5
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Niners 53.2%
Preview: Ok, so the Niners upset the Broncos. Does that mean they’re the real deal? Can the public buy what Chip Kelly is selling? Apparently, they can. The Niners look to have 53.2% of early spread bets already and the NFL betting line has completely flipped with the Niners backing in from an opening +1.5 to -2. That’s a massive jump. It remains to be seen whether these NFL betting trends hold true at closing doors.
NFL Saturday, August 27
Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears, Soldier Field, 1 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Bears +1, Over/Under Total 41
Midweek Line: Chiefs -1.5, Over/Under Total 41
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Chiefs 68.9%
Preview: The Chiefs have almost 70% of the spread bets despite not having won a single preseason game. It’s week 3 of the preseason and it would appear the public feels strongly about the road favourites coming through on their NFL picks. In fact, the NFL betting line has moved in their favour as one would expect with the Chiefs improving to -1 to -1.5.
Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens, M&T Bank Stadium, 7 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Ravens -3, Over/Under Total 43
Midweek Line: Ravens -3.5, Over/Under Total 43
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Ravens 65.9%
Preview: The Lions and Ravens collide at the M&T Stadium in week 3 of the preseason. Given some of the positives coming out of Baltimore, it’s no surprise the public is high on Ravens. The upshot of which is the Ravens are moving up on the NFL odds board from -3 to -3.5. The Lions don’t appear to be getting much love from the public but we’d wager there might be some late money coming down the wire on the Lions at +3.5. With Matthew Stafford and the Lions O-line getting more playing time there should be some value in the road underdogs to appeal to sharpies.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Indianapolis Colts, Lucas Oil Stadium, 7 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Colts -3, Over/Under Total 42.5
Midweek Line: Colts -3, Over/Under Total 43
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Eagles 64.4%
Preview: Despite critics banging on about the rather lacklustre Eagles’ offense the public is sweet on Philadelphia. Early money is nesting with the birds as the road underdogs at Lucas Oil Stadium. The NFL betting line hasn’t changed much since opening doors and it might not change by closing doors unless some heavy sharp money tips the betting scales significantly.
New York Giants vs New York Jets, MetLife Stadium, 7:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Jets +1, Over/Under Total 42.5
Midweek Line: Giants -2.5, Over/Under Total 43
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Giants 70.5%
Preview: Despite an abysmal 21-0 loss to the Bills, the public is high on the Giants. At 70.5% of spread bets, the public is all in you could say. That’s either very brave or insane. Certainly, for these bets to cash, we’d have to see an entirely different G-men take to MetLife. In any event, the Giants have moved from -1 to -2.5 on the NFL odds board as road faves. It’ll be interesting to see whether the public continues to bet up the Giants, opening up more value on the Jets.
Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders, Oakland Coliseum, 8 p.m. ET (CBS)
Opening Line: Raiders -3.5, Over/Under Total 43.5
Midweek Line: Raiders -3.5, Over/Under Total 43.5
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Raiders 93.1%
Preview: The Raiders have the market cornered entirely with 93.1% of spread bets. The Raiders are fast becoming a public sweetheart akin to the Patriots. Each and every Raiders game in the preseason has recorded some heavy Raiders betting. If this trend continues into the regular season, NFL bettors will need to start becoming wary of the market outlooks as bookies will try to capitalise on this Black and Silver sentiment.
Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos, Sports Authority Field at Mile High, 9 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Broncos -4.5, Over/Under Total 42
Midweek Line: Broncos -5, Over/Under Total 42
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Broncos 54.4%
Preview: The Broncos have the slight edge in the market with 54.4% of the spread bets but the advantage is only slight. Nevertheless, this public betting trend is enough to see the Broncos improve to -4.5 to -5.00. There’s bound to be sharp money on the Rams later in the week if the line continues to swell. It might be a good idea to wait until later to bet this game.
NFL Sunday, August 28
San Diego Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings, U.S. Bank Stadium, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opening Line: Vikings -4, Over/Under Total 41.5
Midweek Line: Vikings -4.5, Over/Under Total 41.5
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Vikings 65.8%
Preview: The Vikings are a reliable side for bettors and a consistent performer in the markets. They are coming off back-to-back wins and covers in the preseason, making it hardly surprising they are once again taking in the lion’s share of the spread bets at early doors. The NFL lines also appear to be moving in the direction of these consensus betting polls.
Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans, NRG Stadium, 4 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opening Line: Texans -1, Over/Under Total 41.5
Midweek Line: Texans -1, Over/Under Total 41.5
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Cardinals 69.1%
Preview: There seems to be little to no change in this NFL betting market. Then again, it’s early. The Cardinals and Texans feature on Sunday’s round of week 3 and there’s bound to be an increase in NFL betting down the stretch. The Cardinals then again have 69.1% of early money despite being winless so far. Perhaps, a sharp opportunity already exists on the Texans as the nominal -1 home chalk.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars, EverBank Field, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5, Over/Under Total 43.5
Midweek Line: Jaguars -1.5, Over/Under Total 43.5
Early Consensus ATS Betting: Jaguars 71.1%
Preview: A bit of a head-scratcher to begin with – the Jaguars are the 1.5-point home favourites at the expense of the Bengals in a week where the starters should feature. What’s more, the public is heavy on the Jaguars early at home? There’s bound to be late sharp money on the Bengals if there isn’t already. Could shake up the NFL betting market altogether so those bettors looking to shade the Bengals at +1.5 might want to jump on it quick.