Most Surprising Opening Lines That Look Odd for Week 15

Kevin Stott

Monday, December 11, 2017 3:03 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 11, 2017 3:03 PM UTC

Let’s examine four Week 15 games with spreads that looked a little strange at first blush, offer up some whys and a couple of picks on two road teams facing one host that’s been slumping this year and another one that has been slumping this decade.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Pick'em)

This game is Saturday night. After NFL Regular Season Week 5, ESPN’s Power Ratings had the Chiefs (5-0 SU) ranked #1 and the Chargers (1-4) ranked #28 with Los Angeles having just a 3.8% chance of making the Playoffs. Fast forward to today, and we find Kansas City and San Diego almost magically deadlocked at 7-6 in the AFC West heading into Week 15 play. The Chiefs and Raiders played in Week 14 in Kansas City -- where the Chiefs won 26-15, covering ATS as 4½-point Home favorites -- while the Bolts welcomed the Redskins to Los Angeles and promptly beat them 30-13 (LAC -6½). Momentum and the eyeball test reveal the Chargers to be the one team from this division others won’t want to see in the NFL Postseason.

Proof this Point Spread may look a little odd comes in the form of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2017 NFL Games of the Year opening number for this game which saw Travis Kelce and the Chiefs installed as 6-point Home Favorites for this date (NFL Network, 8:25 pm ET). The Trends show Eric Berry and Kansas City (+4450 to win Super Bowl 52, Heritage) to be a profitable 6-2 ATS the L8 overall vs. The Newest Los Angeles NFL Team after a 24-10 win (and ATS cover as 2½-point Road chalks) in La La Land in Week 3 (47½) but the Chargers (100/1 to win Super Bowl 52, Bovada) are a surprising 4-1 ATS their L5 trips to Arrowhead Stadium.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-12½)

This number looks odd because of the transgression on Point Spreads through the years of AFC South games between the Texans and Jaguars in Jacksonville and the fact the Texans are now down to their 3rd-string QB. In 2007 and 2008, Jacksonville went off as 6½-point Favorites in this game. In 2009 (HOU -1½) and 2010 (JAX -1), the lines were near even, then in 2011 and 2012, Houston were 6- and 6½-point Road chalks for these games. In 2013, the Texans were still 3½-point Favorites in The Sunshine State before being big 7-point Favorites in this game in 2014. Then in 2015 and 2016, we actually saw Jacksonville favored by 3 in both games as Houston struggled through Injuries and Quarterback problems—something the Texans will still be dealing with here in 2017 with starting QB and Rookie sensation Deshaun Watson (Knee) out injured as well as backup Tom Savage (Concussion) forcing TJ Yates into duty Houston (4-9 SU), which has seen its Postseason hopes vanish weeks ago with JJ Watt (Tibia), Will Fuller (Ribs) along with Watson all hobbled, among many others. So, it’s definitely wait until next season again for Head Coach Bill O’Brien, Jadeveon Clowney, DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans (1-5 SU Road) and try not to get yourself hurt in Weeks 15, 16 and 17.

With the best Defense in the NFL right now (202 PA), making Blake Bortles, Leonard Fournette and the host Jaguars (40/1 to win Super Bowl 52, Bovada) near 2 TD chalks here makes sense with the Motivation reality a huge thing: Houston doesn’t care anymore and Jacksonville is fighting tooth-and-nail with the also burgeoning Tennessee Titans (8-5) for 1st place in the AFC South. The two teams will meet in Week 17 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on New Year’s Eve in a climactic showdown which could determine both who wins the AFC South and maybe whose season comes to an end (CBS, 4 pm EST). We will see. In Week 15, the Texans lost to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in Houston, 26-16 (HOU -1), while the Jaguars continued their run of impressive play, defeating the Seahawks, 30-24 in Jacksonville on Sunday, covering ATS as small 2½-point Home Favorites. The Total here is 39½.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+7)

This matchup from Cleveland in Week 15 looks a little light in the sense that Joe Flacco and Baltimore (7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) have been playing so well of late, having W3 straight before losing in the final seconds Sunday night in Pittsburgh. And a line of 8 to 9 would seem more appropriate in a game featuring the Browns, a team who is now 3-10 ATS, have been the best team in the NFL to fade these past 3 seasons (12-31-1 ATS) and who are still winless (0-13 SU) after being outscored by Green Bay at Home in Cleveland in the 4th Quarter and OT on Sunday, 20-0, to lose 27-21 to the Packers (in a game where the SU and ATS outcome were determined on the final play) and reaffirm they are -- no pun intended -- the Charlie Brown of the NFL (GB -2½).

So this looks like a good betting spot with Motivation and confidence and possibly a little anger fueling the Ravens (70/1 to win Super Bowl 52, Heritage). The Trends here show that Terrell Suggs and Baltimore are a profitable 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings — including a 24-10 win and ATS covers as 7½-point favorites in Week 2 — and 8-1 ATS the L9 meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium (Grass) in Cleveland, where this Week 15 game will be played on Sunday (CBS, Directv 706, 1 pm ET) in 60 minutes of football which will have meaning to the visitors in fighting for an AFC Playoff berth and to the hosts as to whether or not they remain winless and on track to get the #1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, where gambling on a another high-profile college QB may be in the cards for poor Cleveland and new General Manager John Dorsey.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2)

This Week 15 game from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara (CBS, DirecTv 715, 4:25 pm ET) actually saw Tennessee and San Francisco open up as a PICK (Total 44), but really early Sharp money quickly drove this number to (49ers minus) 2 and it looks odd because San Francisco has yet to be a Favorite this season (+4, +13½, +3, +6½, +1, +11, +6, +13, +2½, +3, +7, +2½) and the last time Carlos Hyde (14 Rushes, 78 yards, TD vs HOU and the 49ers were actually a chalk in sportsbooks came in Week 14 in the 2016 Regular Season when San Francisco were 1-point Home Favorites to the Jets in a game it ended up losing outright, 23-17. The Niners won 26-16 in Week 15 in Houston on Sunday as new QB Jimmy Garoppolo again showed he’s the real deal, going 20-for-33 for 334 yards Passing and a TD (and an INT) with WR Marquise Goodwin being the primary beneficiary (6 Receptions, 108 Receiving yards) as SF won its 3 in the L4 both SU and ATS.

Two things seem certain here: Marcus Mariota and the visiting Titans (8-5 SU) really need the Win after losing in Week 14 at Arizona, 12-9, after Tennessee led 7-0 at Halftime in Glendale (TEN -3) with aforementioned the Jaguars -- who head to Santa Clara in Week 16 -- jamming Seattle in Jacksonville and snatching the AFC South lead at 9-4, and, San Francisco will be hard to beat in this nothing-to-lose spot on the San Andreas Fault. The Home crowd will want to see Garoppolo and the San Francisco offense get into some kind of groove, and with talk of a winless season gone -- San Francisco started 0-9 -- and 3 Wins in 4 games, why not ruin the Titans season here just because you can? Note, the Under is 4-1 the L5 Niners games after the Over went 4-1 in the previous 5 games. The Trends here show the Titans are 6-2 ATS the L8 meetings overall and a profitable 3-1 ATS the L4 played in The City By The Bay.

Free NFL Picks: Chargers Pick'em, Ravens -7Best Lines Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193234, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,1252,139,180,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here