The Point Spreads for NFL Week 7 are out and although many look like the numbers may be off up to as many as 3 points or so, the reality is that most of them are right on—or refined early enough by Sharps to look closer to “normal.
Some of the teams like the Eagles, Rams and Broncos all improve and others like the Giants, Raiders and Cardinals are seeming to come back to the pack some, with Injuries always playing a big part in these perceptions and the betting numbers. Let’s look at six games for this coming week where the numbers “look odd,” and try explain why they are where they are Monday morning.
NFL Week 7—Sunday, October 22, 2017
Los Angeles Rams -3½ -115 vs. Arizona Cardinals (BetOnline)
Why it May Look Odd: Because a Neutral Site game (Twickenham, England) between the NFC West’s Cardinals and Rams would seem like an Arizona -3 and up-type line. This game from Twickenham Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) on Sunday (FOX, 1 pm ET/10 am PT) actually opened up (Rams minus) 2, but early Sharp money has already driven the number up to -3½ (-115, BetOnline) almost everywhere with the stunning early play of QB jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley and the Rams (66/1 to win Super Bowl, BetOnline) the huge reason why this number is where it is. Some slight Arizona regression through the years may also be to blame. Los Angeles will head in 4-2 SU and on top of the division while the Cardinals (+21,071 to win Super Bowl, Pinnacle) and 5th-year Bruce Arians (37-35-1 ATS) are 3-3 and will obviously need the game more with the 2017 NFL Regular Season coming up on it halfway point.
Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) held of the Buccaneers and a 27-point 4th Quarter from Tampa Bay in the Sonoran Desert on Sunday, earning their first ATS cover, 38-33 (TB -2½ -113, BetOnline) while the Rams upset the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Sunday in Week 6 play, winning outright 27-17 as 1-point Underdogs three Time Zones away from home in the Sunshine State. And proof this may look odd comes in the form of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2017 NFL Early Games line—released in the Summer—which had Arizona open up as 2½ chalks in this London-town game, a 6-point difference (and a Favorite-Flip) from what we’re looking at this October morning.
Why it May Look Odd: The Packers (4-2 SU, 3-3- ATS) are seldom Underdogs at Home in Lambeau Field (Grass) in Green Bay, but that’s exactly what the Cheeseheads are looking at against the Saints in Week 7 on Sunday (FOX, 1 pm ET/10 am PT) after seeing star QB Aaron Rodgers (Shoulder) go down with a serious injury in the Packers 23-10 NFC North Loss to the Vikings at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis in Week 6. And the 4½-point spread may look odds, but New Orleans (66/1 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) will have a healthy Drew Brees which Green Bay is now forced to go with backup QB and UCLA product Brett Hundley looked poor in his spell of the injured Rodgers, (18/33, 157 yards, TD, 3 INTs, 4.76 ypc, 39.6 RAT).
Plus, this Packers team is really beat up (WR Nelson, WR Montgomery, T Bulaga, LB Brooks, TE Bennett, S Burnett, CB King, LB Brooks, LB Thomas, T Bakhtiari) and have to be psychologically worn out from fighting Injuries these last several seasons. Before the Rodgers injury, the Advanced Line from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released last Tuesday had Green bay open up as 6-point favorites, meaning a 10½-point swing in point perceptions with Rodgers now out. If the Saints -4½ looks odd, New Orleans -6 might look even stranger.
Why it May Look Odd: Some had the Jets (3-3 SU, 4-3- ATS) potentially going 0-16 this 2017 NFL Regular Season but to the surprise of almost everyone, New York AFC has looked way better than New York NFC, thanks in great part to the wonderful QB play and leadership this club is getting from QB Josh McCown (70.2% Completion %, #2 in NFL heading into Week 6. One would normally expect upstart Miami (3-2 SU/ATS) to be favored in the 5- to 8-point range in this spot, but with the Jets now having W4 straight ATS and catching the eye of both Sharps and the Public after a competitive 24-17 Home Loss to New England on Sunday in Week 6 (NE -9), a spread that could have been near a TD (or more) is now just a FG.
The last three times the J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets! (5-1-1 ATS L7 in series, 3-0-1 ATS L4 Road) traveled south to Miami Gardens last season, they were 4-point Underdogs and lost 27-23 but with a better Defense and some long-awaited pep in their step, 3rd-year Head Coach Todd Bowles (18-16-4 ATS) has the Jets (1,000 to win Super Bowl, Heritage) playing some good football but the big dilemma here is that Miami (+21,071 to win Super Bowl, Pinnacle) has looked pretty good themselves making this one Sunday (FOX, 1 pm ET/10 am PT) a stay away.
Why it May Look Odd: With a healthy Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck at QB, Indianapolis (285/1 to win Super Bowl, BookMaker) once used to rule the AFC South roost, but now the Texans (3-3 SU), Titans (2-3 SU) and these Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3 SU) have all made the Colts (2-3, -62 PD) devolve into the perceived worst team in the division with Luck (Lacerated Kidney, Partial Abdominal Tear) dealing with Injuries the L2 seasons.
On Sunday in Week 7 play (CBS, 1 pm ET/10 am PT), QB Jacoby Brissett and the hosts face Blake Bortles and an improved Jacksonville side which have been 4-, 13- and 10½-point Favorites the L3 lined games at Lucas Oil Stadium (FieldTurf)—the two played at Wembley Stadium in London last season, taking away the Colts Home game with Jacksonville—in Naptown so to even see the Jags as chalks in the Hoosier State is a strange sight. Another “stay away” and although the Point Spread may look weird and not something one would be able to predict in the Summer, it’s actually spot on.
Why it May Look Odd: This Week 7 Cowboys-49ers NFC matchup on Sunday (FOX, 4:05 pm, ET/1:05 pm PT) looked much more “odd” at its Open of 4½, but early Sharp money quickly drove the line up to (Dallas minus) 6 at most places with a few outliers still hanging a 4½ late Sunday night (125, BetOnline). With the 49ers winless at 0-6, seeing this number so low is another reason it looks “odd” although the SuperBook opened this game at Dallas -4½ in its Advanced Line.
Most would probably expect to see Dak Prescott and Dallas (+2,829 to win Super Bowl, Pinnacle) more like a 7-point and up Favorite here and it seems like this early money is getting the number more in whack as to where it should probably be with one team good (Dallas) and another bad (San Francisco) with the visitors really needing the Win here to avoid a nightmarish 2-4 start and being the first team to lose to the Niners. A good part of the “Why?” this number may look so low and odd to some is the Suspension to Cowboys star RB Ezekiel Elliott who will be out at least until after the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving game this Regular Season.
NFL Week 7—Monday, October 23, 2017
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles -5 (Bovada)
Why it May Look Odd: The opening Point Spread for this Week 7 Monday Night Football showdown of Philadelphia -4 -115 (BetOnline) looks even odder at its current, 5 -110 (Bovada) with QB Kirk Cousins and Washington (3-2 SU) needing this game more than QB Carson Wentz and the host Eagles (5-1 SU) who have seemingly taken command on the NFC East.
These two teams met earlier this season in Washington, DC in Week 1 with TE Zach Ertz, RB LeGarrette Blount and Philadelphia (W4 SU) rolling to a 30-17 victory (WASH -2) but that was the Eagles first ATS cover in 7 meetings with the Redskins who are 3-0 ATS their L3 trips to Lincoln Financial Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in Philadelphia. The slow but steady improvement of North Dakota product Wentz (1,584 Passing yards, 13 TDs) has helped perceptions of this Eagles squad who can create a valuable 2-game game between themselves and the rest of the NFC East with a Win in this particular spot.NFL WEEK 7 LINES THAT “LOOK ODD” PICK: Cowboys -4½ -125 (BetOnline)