Most Surprising Advanced Lines That Look Odd for Week 17

Kevin Stott

Monday, December 25, 2017 2:07 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 25, 2017 2:07 PM UTC

Let’s take a quick look at some funky-looking Point Spreads from three matchups on the Week 17 slate — which sees all 16 games being played on Sunday -- and then explain why these Side numbers are where they are in one of the trickiest weeks in the NFL on which to bet.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

Seeing Detroit (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) as more than a TD favorite against the Packers (7-8 SU/ATS) is odd-looking with Green Bay always having one of the two most dominant teams in their shared NFC North Division with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers at QB for the Packers for many of those years. We see an inflated number because Green Bay and Head Coach Mike McCarthy decided to keep the wounded Rodgers on the sidelines for the remainder of the Regular Season, knowing the Risk involved in their main man possibly getting hurt worse and the obstacles in the Packers (3-4 SU on Road) way. Of note: Green Bay has gone 10-4 in the Totals market (O/U) and 6-1 on the Road and this game will be played on New Year’s Eve at Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions were eliminated from playoff contention in their Week 16 loss in Cincinnati.

The Lions (200/1 to win Super Bowl 52, Heritage) upset the Packers 30-17 as 2½-point Road Underdogs in Green Bay on Nov. 6 in the earlier meeting between these two rivals and the series Trends show Green Bay is an impressive 8-3 ATS the L11 vs. the Lions in Motown but that was with healthy starting QBs at its disposal. and probably not in a spot with Detroit playing for its Postseason lives with just 1 game to go on the Regular Season schedule. Giving Brett Hundley (3 TDs, INT, 90.9 QBR in DEC) and Green Bay more than a TD seems like it's just way too many, even in this meaningless game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

The opening Advanced Line betting number on this AFC South showdown on New Year’s Eve looks a bit strange in that both the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-6 ATS) and the Tennessee Titans (6-8-1 ATS) both struggled for so many years, watching Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts and JJ Watt and the Houston Texans rule the division and gobble up any AFC Postseason spots in the process. Now, on equal football footing in 2017 and getting the R-E-S-P-E-C-T they both think (and do) deserve, the Jaguars and Titans suddenly find themselves in a crucial Week 17 game where Blake Bortles, Rookie (LSU) RB Leonard Fournette and and AFC South-clinchers Jacksonville (10-5 SU) will need the victory in hopes of AFC Home-field Advantage down the road, while the Titans (8-7) need the Win to get an AFC Wild Card berth, something Derrick Henry and Tennessee are fighting out with Buffalo, Baltimore and San Diego (7-7 ).

When these two met in Week 2 in Jacksonville, the Titans beat the jaguars as small 1-point Road Favorites, 37-16 (41) but the Trends reveal Tennessee is still just 4-8-1 ATS the L13 meetings and this Jacksonville team has a superior Defense compared to those past Jags units with Calais Campbell (16.5 sacks), Telvin Smith (86 tackles), Myles Jack (4 tackles), Tashaun Gipson (45 tackles, 4 INTS), Jalen Ramsey (46 tackles, 4 INTs), Barry Church (49 tackles, 3 INTs), Yannick Ngakoue (11 sacks) and AJ Bouye (6 INTs) possessing the NFL’s Best Scoring Defense (14.9 ppg) and rank a very impressive #2 in Takeaways/Giveaways (TO Margin) at +15 (Baltimore is #1 at +17) heading ino Week 16. A very strong holiday lean to Jacksonville and the proud and stingy Defense.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

Because of how well Philadelphia has played this season and up-and-down Dallas has been. Seeing Philadelphia as 3-point chalks at Home in Week 17 would have seemed more likely this Summer, but with Carson Wentz out injured for the Eagles and Nick Foles in his stead and the Cowboys getting RB Ezekiel Elliott back from his Suspension, the opening Advanced Line Point Spread for this Week 17 NFC East battle from Lincoln Financial Field (Desso Grassmaster) in Philadelphia makes perfect sense as the Eagles likely will be resting starters. When these two met earlier this season at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Wentz, RB LeGarrette Blount and the Eagles rolled to a 37-9 victory in Week 11, easily covering ATS as 6-point Road Favorites (48) with Elliott serving his suspension back then.

The Trends here show that Philadelphia (+1050 to win Super Bowl 52, 5Dimes) is just 1-4 ATS the L5 meetings in the City Of Brotherly Love and with a Homefield edge and a first round bye in the NFL Playoffs, the hosts may be more intent on getting out of this Week 17 game healthy and safe. QB Dak Prescott, TE Jason Witten, WR Dez Bryant and the Cowboys (8-7) saw a three-game winning streak snapped in Week 16 vs. Seattle, which ended the Cowboys' playoff hopes.

Free NFL Picks: Packers +7.5, Jaguars -3½

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