Moneyline Facts & Figures To Cash A Winning Super Bowl Ticket

Ross Benjamin

Friday, January 29, 2016 6:09 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 29, 2016 6:09 PM GMT

Our NFL betting analyst provides us with a Super Bowl 50 preview, and a brief history lesson pertaining to money line wagering on the big game.

Super Bowl Money Line
The focal point when it comes to making NFL picks on the Super Bowl is on the point spread and total. This is also the time of year when novice bettors come out of the woodwork to place parlay, teaser, or proposition bets. What usually gets overlooked the most is money line wagering. My area of concentration in this article will be solely on the money line for the upcoming 2016 Super Bowl.

 

Money Line Cash Cows
There was no team in the NFL more profitable this season when it came to money line betting than the Carolina Panthers. You hardly need a PHD in mathematics in order to arrive at that conclusion. After all, Carolina has a record of 17-1 heading into the 2016 Super Bowl. Their lone loss came at Atlanta on 12/27/2015 in a game they closed as a -320 money line favorite. The Panthers were an underdog in just two of its 18 games played this season, and were obviously victorious on both occasions. They won at Seattle on 10/18/2015 as a sizable +285 money line underdog. Shortly thereafter on 11/8/2015, they knocked off Green Bay at home as a +120 money line underdog.

Hypothetically, if you wagered to win $100 on Carolina when they were a money line favorite this season, and risked $100 on them as a money line underdog, you would’ve made a profit of $1485. If you were fortunate enough to do so, that may be just enough cash to purchase an end zone seat in the upper deck for the big game on February 7th.

 

Money Line Darling Dogs
Despite a stellar 14-4 record thus far, Denver was a money line underdog on five separate occasions. Even stranger was the fact that three of those games came on their home field. The Broncos fared very well when those situations transpired by going 4-1. If you risked $100 on Denver in those five contests, it would have produced a profit of $475. Putting that profit margin into perspective, there would have been a total of $500 wagered, and you would’ve received back $975 back in winning tickets. That amounts to nearly doubling your starting bankroll, and it doesn’t get much sweeter than that. I’ve taken the time to detail those five results in a table below, and all money line prices were based on a best closing value.

Date

Underdog

Favorite

Price/Sportsbook

Result

Net

Money Total

9/17/2014

Denver

Kansas City

+155/Heritage

Win

+155

+155

11/1/2014

Denver

Green Bay

+140/Bovada

Win

+140

+295

11/29/2015

Denver

New England

+135/Bovada

Win

+135

+430

12/20/2015

Denver

Pittsburgh

+301/Pinnacle

Loss

-100

+330

1/24/2016

Denver

New England

+145/Bovada

Win

+145

+475

 

Super Bowl Money Line History
Since 1985, Super Bowl money line favorites have gone 20-8. However, what I found to be very intriguing was Super Bowl money line underdogs that were +1.0 to +6.0 on the point spread, resulting in those teams going 8-4 straight up since 1980. The most recent win in that underdog scenario came in 2014 when Seattle was a 2.0 point underdog, and ironically defeated Denver 43-8. According to NFL odds at Bovada, Seattle closed as a +125 money line underdog on that day. Baltimore accomplished the same feat in 2013 when they knocked off San Francisco as a 4.5 point underdog, and the Ravens closed at +188 on the money line at Pinnacle.

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