Monday Night Week 6 Prop Picks - N.Y. Jets vs Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals player Michael Floyd in field

Monday, October 17, 2016 4:51 PM GMT

After Brock Osweiler manned up late in the Sunday night game, we ended up 2-2 on Sunday in our prop betting picks. However, I am ready to close out the week with two more props for Monday Night Football, both coming from Bovada sportsbook. 

 

Michael Floyd O/U 39 ½ receiving yards

I’m not sure why Bovada is offering this prop because they obviously know that Michael Floyd is not one of the top options in the Cardinals’ offense. After David Johnson, who should see a heavy workload this week against the Jets, the Cardinals have seemingly preferred to go to Larry Fitzgerald over the middle and John Brown down the field.

Floyd has been the odd man out. He has seen fewer snaps than Brown overall this season and he is definitely trending in the wrong direction. In Week 5 Floyd saw only 23 snaps on offense. That’s only about one in every three snaps for the Cardinals last week and the week before that it wasn’t much better at 45 percent of their snaps.

Simply put, the under is a fantastic play here. Brown is the more capable downfield receiver, leaving Floyd to even playing two special teams snaps last week. At 39 ½ yards, Floyd isn’t going to see the snaps or the targets needed to cash the over here. Sure, he could catch a deep ball in this one, making us unlucky.

However, Floyd is averaging less than five yards per target and he has caught only one out of every three balls thrown his way this season. That shouldn’t instill confidence from either the Cards’ coaches or the casual bettor. Take the under for your Monday night football picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 39 ½ (-115)

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

Michael Floyd O/U 2 ½ receptions

When it rains it pours, am I right? Floyd is going up against a horrible pass defense, but as I highlighted above, with his dwindling snap counts and his inefficiency both from a target and catch standpoint, he is another under play here.

There are two more reasons that I have not highlighted though that make Floyd a great under play. First is tonight’s game script. The Cardinals are likely going to run away with this one, which means a heavy workload for Johnson and not so much for the passing game.

Last week Drew Stanton threw the ball only 28 times because the Cards were winning for most of the game. Even with Palmer back in there this week, there might not be a need to throw the ball much once they get a potentially big lead. Plus, Palmer’s arm looks a little like a noodle at times, so it doesn’t give me any second thoughts on Floyd considering most of his routes are deep down field.

It’s a bit of a risk with such a low total, but the under has NFL Odds of +120 from Bovada, making it a nice gamble to go with his yards total.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 2 ½ (+120)

Best Line Offered: at Bovada, now offering 100% Cash Bonus

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