Monday Night Season Opener Theory Supports 49ers ATS Over Rams

San Francisco 49ers

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, September 11, 2016 6:52 PM GMT

A long time successful NFL handicapping professional shares his thoughts on Monday’s Rams and 49ers game. Go inside to read this insightful betting article which concludes with his NFL prediction.

Old NFL Rivalry Renewed
It will seem like old times in the NFL Week 1 encounter between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. After relocating to St. Louis in 1995, the Rams return to their geographical roots, and Los Angeles can once again have a NFL team it can call its own. These franchises split their two encounters a season ago, and the home team won on each occasion.

At the time of this writing, the best sportsbooks have Los Angles as a favorite of anywhere from 1.0 to 3.0. On the other hand, the total is a much tighter 42.5 to 43.0.

 

Huge Move On Total
I already alluded to the current total on this contest. Nonetheless, keep in mind, the number opened at 46.0. It’s very rare to see this sizable of a move. However, at this particular juncture, the general public is betting on going under like they’re stealing candy from a baby. That’s quite obvious by 98.8% of totals wagers made on this game going on the under.

There’s several apparent reasons why this overwhelming amount of wagers have gone this way. First, these were the bottom two teams last seasons in total offense. Furthermore, San Francisco finished dead last in scoring offense at 14.9 points per game. Additionally, the Rams have seen 9 of their last 10 road games stay under the total. On the other hand, San Francisco has gone under the total during 13 of its previous 15 home games. Lastly, the preceding three times these teams have met, those games all went under.

I know there’s an awful lot of supporting data favoring a low scoring affair. However, you’ll never catch me betting on a point spread or total wagered on so heavily. If anything, I’d be more inclined to go the other way.

 

Season Opening Monday Night Home Underdogs
Since 1985, any home underdog of 4.0 or less (49ers), playing their season opener on a Monday night, and they won 5 or more games during the previous year (49ers/5-11), resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS. Those nine underdogs won those contests by an average of 12.9 points per game.

 

Home/Away Splits
The 49ers have been a bad team during the past two seasons. Nevertheless, they’ve gone a respectable 8-8 at home through that course of time. Conversely, since 2013, Tennessee has gone an abysmal 7-17 straight up and 8-16 ATS on the road. I’m banking on Chip Kelly getting off to a good start in his 49ers head coaching debut, and one of my NFL picks will be reflective of that prediction.

After sifting through NFL Week 1 point spreads, Bovada clearly provided me with a most favorable number for this underdog wager.

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Free NFL Pick: 49ers +3.0
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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