Monday Night Picks: Pats Are No Big Deal, Lock More Capable Bills +7

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, November 23, 2015 7:11 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 23, 2015 7:11 PM UTC

NFL Monday Night Football is back, and our professional handicapper breaks down the NFL odds for you to take advantage of the best predictions around!

Buffalo Bills vs. NE Patriots (-7) 8:30 ET ESPN
The Buffalo Bills travel to Foxboro for this MNF contest against division rival New England. When these two teams met in Week 1, New England, as 1 point road favorite, won 40-32. That improved the record in the series for New England to 22-2 SU. Though the Patriots won and covered against Buffalo and their 1st year HC Ryan, it was not always that easy against the defensive master. In Ryan’s most recent 4 meetings, as coach of the NY Jets vs. New England, he went 4-0 ATS with no loss of more than 3 points. meetings, as coach of the NY Jets vs. New England, he went 4-0 ATS with no loss of more than 3 points. 


The Game
Each of these teams enters off victories. Last Thursday night, HC Ryan led his Buffalo team to a (22-17) victory over the Jets, profiting from a (+4) net TO margin, despite being outgained 318-280. With 11 days to prepare, you can be 100% certain that Ryan will have his Bills primed for this Monday Night Football affair. The Bills have been at their best in this role with a 7-2 ATS road dog log the last 2 years, including 2-0 ATS this season (both against divisional rivals). The Bills are also at their best with QB Taylor at the helm.  They are 5-2 SU with him as their starter (0-2 SU without). With his recent return from injury, he has led a Buffalo ground game to a total of 414 RY L2G. The Bills are now averaging 142/4.8 overland, trailing only the Minnesota Vikings entering Week 11 play for overland superiority. With a secondary that allows just 59% completions, they would appear to have the ideal statistical profile to slow down the Patriots.

Last week, the Patriots did it again behind QB Brady. Playing with a battered and bruised OL and suffering the loss of WR Edelman (foot, still out for this game), the Pats rallied for a 4th quarter victory (27-26) against the NY Giants. In that contest, QB Brady, who has a 24/3 ratio this season, passed for over 200 4th quarter yards. That included yet another game winning drive which saw Gostkowski nail a 54 yard FG with 1 second remaining for the come from behind victory.


Final Analysis & Pick
Off a narrow come from behind victory against NY Giants with a look-ahead to the Denver Broncos next week, this could well be a flat spot for New England, whose appearance on MNF is no big deal! The Bills have proven to be most capable this year with a solid running game and a quality defense, along with the coaching ability of Ryan and the QB’ing of Taylor. I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL pick on the Buffalo Bills in a game that could well go to the wire.

Free NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills +7 at Bookmaker

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