Monday Night NFL Picks: Seahawks vs. Redskins

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, October 6, 2014 1:35 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 6, 2014 1:35 PM UTC

Free NFL picks for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins. Could sports bettors be in a prime position to grab the dog at a great price?

NFL Picks: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins

On Sunday, 1-3 SU teams in a lose vs. win set went a flat 0-2 ATS out of a situation that had been a long term 75% winner on over 80 occurrences.  Tonight, the Redskins step into that situation in what can only be termed a classic NFL contrary play. With the Monday Night NFL odds offering the Skins' at +7

Much of the public will surely be backing a Seattle team who enters with a week of rest to ameliorate the west to east travel situation.  Combined with the emotion of MNF, the travel factor should be negligible for the Seahawks.  Since their surge to Super Bowl champion, the Seahawks are riding the crest of a 39-13 ATS run, including 11-2 ATS of late in which they outscored the opposition 27-10.  Knowing that MNF non-division favorites following a bye are 10-1 ATS, adds fuel to the fire for Seattle backers.  That number includes 4-0 SU for MNF road chalk with an average win margin of over 3 TDs per game.  The Seattle Seahawks are again dominating the line of scrimmage, outrushing foes 148/5.1 to 72/2.8.  With a 69% completion rate on offense, the Seahawks’ attack has been highly efficient.  But before you take off the rubber band and drop your NFL picks on the defending Super Bowl champs, you must know this … a longer term sample shows that Super Bowl champs in the guise of non-division road chalk are a 36% proposition on well over 100 plays in over 30 years.  With Seattle QB Wilson having a strong home/road dichotomy, there is further cause for concern in backing the Seahawks.  Wilson is just 9-8 SU on the road with only 4 of those 17 starts being a win of 6 or more points. 

The back end of our contrary situation comes with the Washington Redskins who turned in a miserable home field performance last Sunday night against the rival New York Giants.  In that contest, a 45-14 NY Giants’ victory, Washington was outrushed 154-86, while being outgained 449 to 329.  The greater ignominy came in the form of 6 TOs, leading to a net +5 TO advantage for the G Men.  Dichotomous to that performance has been a Washington ground game that still for the YTD averages 123/4.5 to 87/3.3.  The defense has been solid in spite of last week’s performance, allowing only 323 YPG.  Those statistical numbers offer ample ammunition for a team who embarrassed themselves at this venue last week.  For technical support, consider that NFL home dogs of more than 3 points who come off a blowout loss are a near 75% proposition to bounce back off their embarrassing defeat.

With the Redskins in an optimum situation backed by decent statistical and technical support, it is no surprise to this bureau if the Redskins pull the MNF home dog upset.      

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