Monday Night NFL Picks: Bet Skins When Knocking Helmets vs. Boys

Kevin Stott

Monday, December 7, 2015 11:33 AM UTC

Monday, Dec. 7, 2015 11:33 AM UTC

What’s the best approach in such a quirky game and does the Redskins better play at Home here warrant an NFL pick or two with Dallas without QB Tony Romo and in a free fall?

Odds Overview
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins: The Dallas Cowboys (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS) will knock helmets with the Washington Redskins (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) at FedExField in Landover, Maryland (Weather Forecast: Mostly Cloudy, 46°, Winds N 3 to 8 mph, 68% Humidity) on Monday night in an NFC East battle between sub-.500 teams that still matters in December. welcome to the 2015 NFL Regular Season. Current NFL odds have the Redskins in a 3½- to 4-point range as the favorites with the The Total (Points) in this game now ranging from 41½ (Treasure Island) to 42½ (MGM Mirage). In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Redskins are solid -190 favorites with the visiting Cowboys priced at +165 on the takeback (5Dimes). The Washington Redskins Total Team Points is at 22½ (Ladbrokes) while the Dallas Cowboys Total Team Points is at 19 (Ladbrokes).


Last 6 Final Scores Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins at FedExField in Landover
2014—Cowboys 44 Redskins 17 (DAL -8) Total Points Scored: 61 (Over, 48)
2013—Cowboys 24 Redskins 23 (DAL -3) Total Points Scored: 47 (Under, 51½)
2012—Redskins 28 Cowboys 18 (WAS -3) Total Points Scored: 46 (Under, 49½)
2011—Dallas 27 Redskins 24 (DAL -7) Total Points Scored: 51 (Over, 43)
2010—Redskins 13 Cowboys 7 (DAL -3½) Total Points Scored: 20 (Under, 40)
2009—Cowboys 17 Redskins 0 (DAL -7) Total Points Scored: 17 (Under, 42)


Why the Favorite Redskins on the Money Line? (In List Form, Por Favor)
The Redskins -190 (5Dimes) are worth a small to moderate play on the Money Line on Monday Night Football for a number of fairly logical reasons:
1—The Redskins are 5-1 SU at Home this year with victories over the Rams, Eagles, Saints, Buccaneers and Giants after losing to the Dolphins at Home in Week 1 and have W5 straight here and FedExField in Landover, Maryland and are feeling good about playing at Home as well as protecting the Home turf.
2—Washington is 3-3 in its L6 SU against Dallas overall despite having a less impressive Rosters than the Cowboys through those games over the past three seasons (2012-2014) including stud Offensive Skill Position players like Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten and a much better Offensive Line.
3—The Cowboys (3-8 SU, L8-9) have seemingly given up on this season, and with starting QB Tony Romo suffering another Collarbone injury—this one season-ending—in Dallas’s Thanksgiving thrashing by the Carolina Panthers in Arlington, this beat down team has to know that this just isn’t their year.
4—The Redskins may have the overall better team right now and definitely are playing better as a team right now as well as this entire season. and that Confidence and Momentum (Dallas doesn’t) always matter on all levels of football. Washington and the Hogs in the FedExField faithful will expect to win here and will remember losing the last two outings here to the cowpoke, especially last season’s 44-17 beating in Week 17.
5— Washington (5-6) can grab firm hold of first place in the NFC East with a Win here on Monday night with the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants now both sitting on 5-7 Records after Sunday play.
6—If you are leery about laying the 3½ or 4 points Timothy, backing the host on the Money Line may be the best route to avoid losing a Straight Bet should Washington win by 1, 2 or 3 points.


Why Back the Washington Redskins at -3½ & Buy the ½ Point?
Because nobody wants to lose laying 3½—off that Key NFL Number of 3—when they could have paid the extra vigorish and trimmed it down to 3, especially in the professional ranks where so many games are decided by 3 points. And the Trends strongly support backing the host Redskins here in this spot with Washington 8-2 ATS the L10 overall in this series and 4-1 ATS the L5 here at FedExField in Landover. And this season, Washington is 4-2 ATS at Home while Dez Bryant and the Cowboys are a dismal 3-8 ATS overall and 2-3 ATS on the Road heading in here although a couple of Trends support Dallas (8-1 ATS L9 on Grass (FedExField, 10-4 ATS L14 Road). But this certainly hasn’t been a good season for owner Jerry Jones, Head Coach Jason Garrett (38-45-1 ATS) and America’s Team with the Record, the battering of Romo, Brandon Weeden’s scuffling and all of the many Cowboys Injuries.


Thoughts On The Total?
Lowest Total in Market: 41½ (Treasure Island)
Consensus Total in Market: 42
Highest Total in Market:
42½ (MGM Mirage, Heritage)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: Washington Unders are 4-2 at Home this season while Dallas Unders on the Road are 4-1, so the really recent, relevant Trends point toward the Under which is also 7-3 the L10 Week 13 Redskins games but this number seems right on and as you can see from the above scores from the L6 played here at this site, the Under is 4-2 although 61 were scored in last season’s 44-17 romp by Romo and the visitors in this spot on the schedule.


Monday Night Football Trends and How Should This Potential Yawner Play Out?
The Advanced Point Spread here had Dallas as -3 (Even, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) favorites but that was before the Thanksgiving Day injury to the Collarbone injury (again) of Cowboys QB Tony Romo who is now Out for Season and with Washington playing twice as good football at FedExField as they do on the Road, backing the Redskins (241 PF-267 PA) here over the Cowboys (204 PF-261 PA) makes sense for your NFL picks with backup Matt Cassel not as bad as Weeden but still not as comfortable in his role as team leader on Offense and (now) starting QB as his counterpart Kirk Cousins will be. Although it’s Week 13 and you’re making your Christmas List, this will be the first meeting between these two bitter NFC East rivals and they will play again in Week 17 in Jerry World in Arlington. Here, expect Washington to try to establish the running game through Alfred Morris (482 Rushing yards) early on while going to their bread-and-butter this year despite the nice start rushing the ball early on—the redskins Passing game which with WR DeSean Jackson and WR Pierre Garçon and TE Jordan Reed (541 Receiving yards) are 17th in Passing yards per game (241) in the NFL with Michigan State-product Cousins (2,787 yards) having a pretty solid, albeit still fairly quiet season. 

Dallas should scare Washington here for awhile, but the bounces and calls and Home-field crowd should be enough to lift Washington to a 6th-straight Home Win. In those last 5 Wins here at Home, the ‘Skins have won by 6, 33, 1, 3 and 14 points so there’s little rhyme or reason, much like an E. E. Cummings poem. The Monday Night Football Trends? Washington is a pathetic 5-10 ATS as a Home Favorite in this role while Dallas is an impressive 12-7 ATS as a Road underdog on Monday nights. Despite that, the call here is the team playing great at Home that knows it who wants to show off and beat its rivals while they're hurt and without Romo. Also, with a chance to get to .500 and grab a 1-game lead in the NFC East, expect Jackson, Garçon and especially Reed to shine here under the spotlights. And, as always when playing a game on 3 in the NFL—buy the hook or run the risk of chugging the Pepto-Bismol.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Washington Redskins 24 Dallas Cowboys 18
NFL WEEK 13 FREE PICKS: Redskins -3 -133 (Bet365), Redskins +190 (5Dimes)

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