What a crazy Sunday of NFL betting in terms of upsets! Might that continue tonight with the Jets beating the Colts? I doubt it, but let's examine some game Bovada props for "Monday Night Football".
Andrew Luck 'Over/Under' 24.5 Completions, 285.5 Yards, 2.5 TD Passes, .5 INTs
Luck wasn't very good in Indianapolis' season-opening 27-14 loss in Buffalo -- in my opinion, that loss looks worse now after what New England did to those Bills on Sunday. Luck was 26-for-49 for 243 yards (scant 5.0 yards per attempt), two touchdowns and two picks for a rating of 63.6. He was sacked twice. But Luck also got little help from his running game as the Colts managed only 64 yards on 17 carries. That Indianapolis offensive line is a mess. The Bills blitzed Luck on 49 percent of the snaps last week and it worked. I expect even more blitzing from the Jets -- that's head coach Todd Bowles' calling card.
In this one, Luck will play in his 50th career game. He has 88 touchdown passes overall. With four touchdown passes against a very good Jets defense, Luck would surpass Peyton Manning (91), the guy he replaced in Indy, Johnny Unitas (91) and Carson Palmer (90) for the third-most touchdown passes of any quarterback through his first 50 games. The record is 114 by Dan Marino. With 352 passing yards this week, Luck would surpass Marc Bulger (13,551) -- Marc Bulger!?!? -- and Marino (13,514) for the third-most passing yards of any quarterback through his first 50 games. The record is 14,331 by Detroit's Matthew Stafford.
Will Luck have his top receiver for this one? T.Y. Hilton is questionable with a knee injury and will officially be a game-time call. He went through a limited practice on Saturday. Presumably if Hilton does play, the Jets will shut him down with Darrelle Revis. Bovada's NFL odds don't offer Hilton props. In Week 1, the Jets allowed Cleveland 217 yards passing, picking off one pass.
NFL Free Picks: I don't see Indy having much success on the ground so that should mean plenty of Luck throwing. Go 'Over' all of them.
Ryan Fitzpatrick O/U 18.5 Completions, 210.5 Yards, 1.5 TD Passes, .5 INTs
I wonder if Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien is regretting having traded Fitzpatrick to the Jets this offseason as O'Brien's team is 0-2 and has gotten shaky quarterback play from Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. Not saying Fitzpatrick is all that great, but you pretty much know what you will get from him.
In the Week 1 win over the Browns, Fitzpatrick was 15-for-24 for 179 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. The Colts have one very good cornerback in Vontae Davis but otherwise have been very thinned out in the secondary due to injuries. Interestingly, this is the fourth straight year that Fitzpatrick will start a game against the Colts but with a fourth different team. It was with Houston last year, Tennessee in 2013 and Buffalo in 2012.
NFL Free Picks: 'Under' all but interceptions. I think the Jets will have some success running the ball. They ran the ball 36 times in Week 1, second most of any team, for 154 yards.
Donte Moncrief O/U 4.5 Receptions, 57.5 Receiving Yards
This is one of those props I would wait on until right before kickoff. Because if Hilton doesn't play, and I tend to think he won't, then Moncrief should be the guy to benefit most. He would start opposite Andre Johnson, with Johnson then likely drawing Revis Island. Revis typically only plays the left side, but the Jets haven't ruled out having him shadow one receiver, depending on the on the opponent. Moncrief was targeted 11 times in Week 1, catching six balls for 46 yards. If the Jets do blitz a lot, as expected, that leaves their cornerbacks in single coverage and could mean a few big plays for that Colts offense.
NFL Free Picks: If Hilton is out, go 'Over' both at Bovada.