Monday Night Football Predictions - Week 4 N.Y. Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings players in action

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, October 3, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 3, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

Yet another strong week of analysis. An interesting tidbit relevant to tonight’s game is that in football action to date, the outright winner of the game is 42-3 ATS (93%). With this in mind expert capper maker his top Monday night football pick.

 N.Y. Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

The NY Giants travel to the $1.1 billion U.S. Bank Arena to face the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. These teams last met December 27th in Minnesota, when the Vikings romped by a score of 49-17, using a (+3) net TO margin and a 218-91 running advantage for the victory. The Vikings are off to a 3-0 SU ATS start, while the re-born NY Giants are 2-1 SU with far more hope than at the close of last season.  

With veteran HC Tom Coughlin on his way out, the Giants finished last year 1-6 SU with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 28 PPG and 421 YPG. Enter 1st year HC Ben McAdoo, a veteran of the Giants’ coaching staff. The change was enough to turn things around dramatically for the Giants’ defense after 3 weeks. Including games against Dallas, New Orleans, and Washington, the GMen are allowing just 20 PPG and 340 YPG. Following their 2-0 SU start, they played the divisional rival, Washington, last week. They led the Redskins 21-9 before the bottom fell out in a 29-27 home loss. Their games have now been decided by 1, 3, and 2 points. But, the 1-2 ATS mark is a part of a function of a (-6) net TO margin. That will certainly be a problem against the defense of the Vikings if the Giants continue in that vein.  

The Vikings opened the $1.1 billion U.S. Bank Arena with a 17-14 victory against Green Bay. It was keyed by a (+2) net TO margin, which is part of the (+8) net TO margin for the Vikings this season. In his 3rd year at the helm of the Vikings, HC Zimmer has put his defensive stamp on this team. This season, the Vikings are allowing just 13 PPG and 295 YPG. Last week, without key offensive cogs (QB Bridgewater and RB Peterson), it was that defense, which allowed just 306 yards that keyed the victory by a score of 22-10 as a 7 point road dog at Super Bowl Carolina. Along with 8 sacks of QB Newton, which ran their league-leading mark of 15 for the season, they used a (+3) net TO margin for the victory. Giants immobile signal caller, “E. Man,” will need a quick release to evade the Vikings’ rush. By now, the point spread marks under HC Zimmer are repeated as a weekly litany. Minn is on a 27-9 ATS run, including 18-3 ATS recently and 24-5 ATS against non-divisional opponents.

The bottom line is with the Vikings having covered all 3 contests with a (+30) AFP, there is still value in this line. Check the first paragraph to see why your belief should be in Minnesota tonight, based on a 42-3 ATS stat and Zimmer’s numbers above. In an MNF fortress game, the Vikings defend their shiny new home, using one of the best defenses in the league for this point spread victory. I invite you to put the NFL betting odds in your favor and join me in my Monday Night Football pick at Minnesota tonight.


Free NFL Pick: Vikings -4
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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