Monday Night Football Power Pick: Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs

Free KC Chiefs Picks

David Schwab

Saturday, October 28, 2017 4:34 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 28, 2017 4:34 PM UTC

Week 8 of the NFL season comes to a close on ESPN’s Monday Night Football with a big showdown in the AFC West between the 3-3 Denver Broncos and the 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs in a slated 8:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium. Each team has lost its last two games after posting fast starts.

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Free NFL Picks: Take the Chiefs with Reduced Juice (-105) at Heritage

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Total Line: 43

Denver at Kansas City Game Overview

The Broncos will be looking to snap a two-game skid both straight-up and against the spread in which they have scored a grand total of 10 points. The total easily stayed UNDER the betting lines in both losses to the New York Giants at home and to the Los Angeles Chargers on the road and it has now stayed UNDER in Denver’s last three games. It is 3-3 SU on the year with a 2-3-1 record ATS. On the road this season, it has gone 0-2 ATS.

Trevor Siemian remains the starting quarterback in Denver despite the complete lack of offensive production in recent weeks. Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas remains his top target with 30 receptions for 389 yards, but the loss of Emmanuel Sanders with a bad ankle has taken a big chunk out of a passing offense that is ranked 15th in the NFL. Denver’s defense has done its best to keep the Broncos’ competitive, but even the No. 1-ranked unit in the league in yards allowed cannot do it all on its own.

Following a 5-0 start both SU and ATS, Kansas City suddenly has some issues with its run game and its pass defense in recent losses to Pittsburgh at home and Oakland on the road both SU and ATS. Sunday’s 31-30 setback against the Raiders as three-point favorites went OVER the 46.5-point closing line and it has gone OVER in five of the Chiefs’ first seven games. They return home with a 2-1 record (SU and ATS) at Arrowhead this season.

Running back Kareem Hunt was an early candidate for Rookie of the Year honors in the Chiefs’ five-game winning streak, but his pace has slowed with a combined 108 yards rushing in those two losses. Kansas City managed just 28 yards rushing against the Steelers before gaining 94 yards on the ground in last Sunday’s loss. Kansas City has now slipped to 28th in the league against the pass after giving up 417 yards through the air against Oakland.

Denver at Kansas City Game Betting Trends

-The Broncos are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 AFC West games and they have failed to cover ATS in eight of their last 10 Monday night games. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games played in October.

-The Chiefs have covered ATS in six of their last seven division matchups and they have posted a 5-2 record ATS in their last seven games played on a Monday. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven Week 8 games.

-Head-to-head in this division tilt, the road team has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in the last four games between these two bitter rivals.

Denver at Kansas City NFL Picks

Both teams have some pressing issues that may or may not get worked out this Monday night, but Kansas City still has the edge behind an offense that can work the ball down the field both through the air and on the ground. While each team suddenly needs to win this game in light of the recent results, I would still lay the 7.5 points as my top NFL pick in the matchup, but you can now find Kansas City minus the hook at just 7 points.

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