To finish off a wild Week 13, the Jets and Dolphins kick off tonight on Monday Night Football. With only one game, there are other ways to find value. This includes prop NFL Odds from bet365, and I have chosen three of my best bets for tonight’s NFL Picks.
|Miami scores first -155 (best line: BetOnline)
NY Jets scores first +135 (best line: SIA)
|Total field goals made over 3½ +130 (best line: 5Dimes)
Total field goals made under 3½ -140 (best line: BetOnline)
|Score in first 7:30 -140 (best line: Heritage)
No score in first 7:30 +125 (best line: 5Dimes)
|First score a TD -140 (best line: Heritage)
First score not a TD +125 (best line: 5Dimes)
Ryan Tannehill O/U 248.5 passing yards
The Jets’ pass defense is anything but good this season, but their pass rush may be enough to upset the Dolphins’ passing game. Like many quarterbacks, Ryan Tannehill doesn’t play as well on the road, and it’s shown this season. He hasn’t thrown for more than 228 passing yards in the Dolphins’ last three road games, and on the year he has not been as good controlling the football. He has turned the ball over at least once in every road game this season except their game in Chicago, and even against the Jets (who have been improving in the secondary) I think he could be limited this week. Even in that onslaught last week against the Bills, Kyle Orton only had 230 passing yards, and I don’t see many more for Tannehill tonight, so we are taking the 'Under' with the first of our Free NFL picks tonight.
My Pick: UNDER 248.5 passing yards (-120)
Dolphins O/U 24.5 (-125)
This may not be a conventional pick after the Jets were blown out by the Bills last week, but playing at home has been a different story for the Jets this season, and I think they can play well enough to hold the Dolphins down in this game. While they have given up a lot of points to teams like the Broncos, Bears and Lions when playing in the Meadowlands, the Dolphins do not have as good of an offense as either of those three. Their last home game against the Steelers is a better indication of the game I think we might see tonight. Pittsburgh has struggled now for a couple straight weeks after their huge offensive explosion earlier in the month, but the Jets’ defense played well in that game, and I see them playing well enough tonight to hold the Dolphins to 24 points or less.
My Pick: Dolphins UNDER 24.5 points (-125)
Mike Wallace O/U 62.5 receiving yards
This one is easy for me, because even with the Jets’ defensive inconsistencies, Tannehill and Mike Wallace haven’t been on the same page since he signed in Miami last season. On the year Wallace does have seven touchdowns, which has been the source of most of his value this season. However he has less than 600 yards receiving, and on the year he has failed to reach 60 yards receiving in a game in all but three games. On top of that, he hasn’t reached that many yards in a game since Week 6. IN his last six games, Wallace is only averaging 47 yards per game, and even though he routinely gets seven or eight targets in a game, he and Tannehill can’t seem to find a rhythm other than in the red zone. While he may find the end zone against the Jets this week, I doubt he is able to reach the 63 yards being asked for by the NFL odds makers while doing it. On the road hasn’t been kind to him either. He has never reached 60 yards receiving on the road this year.
My Pick: Wallace UNDER 62.5 receiving yards (-120)