The forecast calls for rain when the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins on Monday. The NFL odds have a low, low total of 42 points on the board. It’s a tough call, but Miami’s defense should reign supreme.
Jason’s record after Week 12: 32-44-1 ATS, 14-20-1 Totals
Before we proceed today, please bid a fond farewell to our “Five Stars” system. We’ll continue to keep track of our ongoing record against the spread and total, and we certainly encourage you to use Kelly betting as part of your bankroll management strategy, if you aren’t already. But for editorial purposes, we want to make sure you’re getting fresh NFL odds at the moment we publish. That makes it impractical for us to deal with things like potential profit margins, and finding the best deals in vigorish – we’ll leave that in your capable hands.
We also get sideswiped occasionally by changes on the ground. When we went to press with our look at the spread for Monday night’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets, the word on the street was that New York head coach Rex Ryan was leaning toward giving Michael Vick another start at quarterback. Instead, it will be Geno Smith under center. Should this change our approach toward betting the total?
So Many Raindrops
Probably not much. There’s a total of 42 points on the Week 13 NFL odds board, which would usually motivate us to bet the OVER in just about any situation. Vick (No. 40 in the league in passing DVOA) has been every bit as bad as Smith (No. 35) this year, even if Vick has shown in the past that he can get the job done, at least with other teams. So we’re not too concerned about which of the two is starting his week.
What does concern us is the weather report. At press time, the forecast calls for rain over East Rutherford on Monday. Even as we write this, the report has changed, with rain now expected during the daytime. We highly recommend you check the forecast throughout the week and adjust your NFL picks accordingly – as a rule, rain and wind are good for the UNDER.
Knees of Clay
If the weather does turn sour, the matchup on paper definitely has the earmarks of a low-scoring game. The Jets (UNDER 6-5) are No. 30 in the league in scoring at 16.1 points per game, and on Monday, they’ll be facing a Miami defense that ranks No. 6 in the league in efficiency (No. 4 pass, No. 13 rush). And just to make things worse, many of New York’s “skill” players are banged-up or worse. TE Jace Amaro (34 catches) is the latest casualty; he’s listed as questionable with a concussion, and isn’t expected to play against Miami.
The Dolphins (UNDER 6-5), however, are No. 10 in the league in scoring at 25.9 points per game, although the defense is responsible for three of their 31 touchdowns, plus a pair of safeties. These guys are hurting, too. TE Charles Clay (knee, hamstring) and LT Ja’Wuan James (shoulder) are both considered questionable for Monday; however, it’s believed both will be able to suit up.
No More Stuffing
It’ll be interesting to see whether or not New York’s defense decides to show up. This is the one part of the game where Ryan has enjoyed some success the past three years. But with the Jets playing out the string, the effort wasn’t there in last Monday’s 38-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills. That loss sent Gang Green tumbling seven spots to No. 19 (No. 26 pass, No. 8 rush) on the defensive DVOA charts.
And yet it wasn’t enough to keep that game from going UNDER 42. We’re going to go ahead and hit “repeat” for our Week 13 NFL picks, but again, there’s no need to be hasty at your end. Let the weather gods sort things out first before taking the plunge.
Free NFL Pick: Bet UNDER at BookMaker
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