Monday Night Football Picks: Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, December 8, 2014 8:21 PM GMT

Monday, Dec. 8, 2014 8:21 PM GMT

We take a final look at the Monday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Green Bay Packers to help you locate the best value for your NFL Picks.

Falcons vs. Packers Spread Picks

Falcons vs. Packers Over/Under Picks & Predictions

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (-13/55) 8:40 ET ESPN
The southern based Atlanta Falcons leave their Georgia Dome home to travel to chilly Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers.  The forecast for tonight is for temperatures in the low 30s with chance of light snow showers. A look at the current NFL standings finds that these two teams each lead their respective division in the NFC.  There the similarity ends!  For, Atlanta plays in the NFC South where their 5-7 SU record leads a division whose teams own a combined record of 16-34-1 SU. Currently, Atlanta holds a 1 game lead in the loss column over New Orleans and Carolina.  Green Bay has a mark of 9-3 SU to lead the NFC North by 1 game in the loss column over Detroit.  Only Arizona in the NFC has a better record than Green Bay at 10-3 SU.

Check out our Favorite Prop Betting Options for Tonight's Matchup

Atlanta is playing their best ball of the year on a 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS streak.  The two losses have been to Cleveland by 2 and Detroit by 1.  At first glance, one might expect them to be competitive in this matchup.  Last week, they caught Arizona in a bad scheduling spot and defeated the conference leaders 29-18. In that contest, they outrushed Arizona 142-35 and outgained Arizona 500-329.  Prior to that, they won their 2 previous road games.  But, those were against lowly Tampa Bay and Carolina, teams with a combined 6 wins. When playing tougher competition on the road earlier in the season, Atlanta went 0-4 SU ATS away, with every defeat by 10 or more points and a defense that allowed 31 PPG.    That defense, which allows 403 YPG and 6.2 defensive YP play, will surely be a problem tonight against a potent Green Bay offense.  Before you take off the rubber band, however, note that Atlanta, under current HC Smith, is a perfect 3-0 ATS as double digit dog (the previous 5 years). 

Green Bay may not be in the best scheduling spot.   The Packers come off a high-profile win on SNF against conference leading New England.  In that 26-21 victory, Green Bay outrushed New England 130-84 and outgained the Patriots 478-320.  Green Bay now enters on a run of 8-1 SU, in which they have averaged 36 PPG.  That includes a current 4-game winning streak since their bye week, November 2nd.  Lambeau Field has been an incredible ally for Green Bay this season.  For, it is here that Green Bay has gone 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS with 4 of the victories by 21 or more points.  In fact, the average winning score on this field for Green Bay this season has been 41-18.  The Packers currently enter this game with a record of 8-2 ATS when favored by 7 or more on the NFL odds boards.   Those are heady numbers for a southern dome team to overcome.  As a result, the preferred side in this contest is the Green Bay Packers.

The stronger opinion in this contest, however, is on the OVER (55).  In the paragraph above, we have already noted the weak Atlanta defensive numbers.  Furthering that case is the fact that Green Bay allows 132/4.5 overland, in the bottom 5 of the league.  The 47 points on this field in the New England game last week was a season low for Green Bay on this field, whose other 5 games have totaled between 52 and 73 points.  With primetime NFL games standing 30-11 OVER this season, including 19-3 OVER in non-division games, we make the stronger recommendation to add the OVER to your NFL picks for tonight’s matchup.  

comment here