Monday Night Football NFL Picks: Packers -6.5 is The Obvious Play vs. Chiefs

Nikki Adams

Friday, September 25, 2015 12:08 AM GMT

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 12:08 AM GMT

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Green Bay Packers in Monday Night Football, a much-anticipated clash on week 3 NFL betting’s slate. Check out our complete preview with an NFL pick.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-1, 1-0 away)
Kansas City Chiefs are faced with the seemingly impossible task of putting behind them week 2’s debacle at Arrowhead, a topsy-turvy, teeth-gnashing 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos that had the Chiefs in the ascendency for the better part of three quarters only for the Broncos to draw level, each and every time before running away with the game in the dying minutes.

What makes the task even more impossible is doing it at the expense of the highly-fancied Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Against almost any other team, the notion the Chiefs would bounce back is a reasonable assumption. They sailed through pre-season with a perfect 4-0 SU record and then extended that run of form with dominating performance over the Houston Texans in week 1, a road game they won 27-20.

Nevertheless, there are those NFL bettors that would have the Chiefs their sleeper NFL pick in this game as the 6.5-to7.5-point road underdogs (the spread varies by almost a point from sportsbook to sportsbook, which is considerable all things being considered). The thinking is that the Chiefs really should be 2-0 SU, having outplayed, outmuscled and outgunned the Denver Broncos for the better part of week 2’s clash. That they lost is down to just bad luck. It’s just the way the ball rolls (no pun intended, Jamaal Charles). By the stats, the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF games.

 

Green Bay Packers (2-0, 1-0 home)
The Green Bay Packers are currently installed as the top Super Bowl 50 favorites, a move up the shortlist of favorites that’s the result of their perfect 2-0 SU start on the season and, in turn, preseason favorites’ Seattle Seahawks 0-2 SU demise at the start of the season. Not to mention, the Packers’ 27-17 win over the Seahawks at Lambeau in week 2 added substance to this reversal of fortunes on the NFL odds board.

Of course, two games into the season is never a true measure of the quality of any team. Things can turn on a dime on any given Sunday (or Thursday or Monday too). The thing with the Packers is that they are nigh infallible at Lambeau Field, largely down to the superb play of Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown a record-setting 41 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions on 512 passing attempts in his last 17 home games.

On the season, Rodgers is second on the passer rating list with 128.4 rating, behind league-leading Marcus Mariota. But we can all agree the Packers have faced stiffer opponents in their first two games and, as such, those ratings are debatable.

By the stats, the Packers went 10-7-1 ATS last season overall, but they led the league with a 6-2-1 ATS mark at home (one playoff game included), which consists of a whopping 17.8-maring of victory on average. That also ties into their league-leading 7-2 OVER-UNDER record at Lambeau (which includes the playoffs). As home favorites, this season they are 1-0 ATS with a 10-point margin of victory.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
It should come as no surprise that the Green Bay Packers are the heavy home favourites in this game, even against a quality outfit such as the Kansas City Chiefs. Be it the 6.5-to-7.5-point spread NFL bettors are eyeing (depending on their sportsbook of choice), it’s a number that is well within their means to cover, particularly at Lambeau Field where they have be formidable under Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. For the Chiefs to come through as the tempting underdogs, they’ll need to be perfect for all 60-minutes of the game. They can’t bugger it all like they did against the Broncos.

Therein lies the problem: Alex Smith and the Chiefs invariably come up short against the so-called best offenses in the league. Aside from their mega win over the Patriots last season – which was at Arrowhead, mind, and, not least, was immediately followed by a road loss in San Francisco too – they repeatedly fall short of the mark against legitimate playoff and Super Bowl contenders on the road mainly. In fact, last season, they went just 3-5 SU on the road with losses to the Broncos, Niners, Raiders, Cardinals and Steelers. Until proven otherwise, we simply can’t take the Chiefs on our NFL picks. Put another way, there’s no reason to bet against the Packers at home.

NFL Picks: Packers -6.5 at Bookmaker

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