Monday Night Football NFL Picks: Bet Bills to Cover ATS vs. Patriots

Teddy Covers

Saturday, November 21, 2015 11:07 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 11:07 PM UTC

We preview the Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Monday Night Football matchup and provide an NFL pick with great betting value.

Monday Night NFL Preview

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Everybody’s power ratings have the New England Patriots ranked as the #1 team in the NFL.  And they should.  The Pats are undefeated this season on the heels of winning the Super Bowl last year.  But when we’re talking about the highest power rated team in the NFL and the single most public team in the NFL, we start to see a legitimate value problem by this stage of the campaign.

Let’s not forget how New England’s magical 2007 undefeated regular season campaign went ATS-wise.  The Pats went 9-1 ATS in their first ten games.  They closed out the campaign on a 1-5 ATS run, and failed to cover all three playoff games.  The markets were simply too ‘hot’ on the Patriots, routinely pricing New England a good notch or two too high.

The Patriots haven’t been nearly as good ATS this year as they were in their previous unbeaten season; entering Week 11 with a modest 5-3-1 ATS mark.  But it’s surely worth noting that the Pats two lowest scoring games of the entire campaign came in the last two weeks against the Redskins and Giants; neither of whom is known for having anything resembling a quality defense.

It’s also worth noting that Tom Brady wasn’t good last week; bad news for an elite QB getting up there in age.  Brady threw a terrible interception in the end zone with the Pats clinging to a one point, fourth quarter lead.  And then, after the Giants mismanaged the clock badly, leaving New England with plenty of time, Brady’s first pass was another poorly thrown INT which should have sealed the Giants victory, but this time it was dropped by rookie Landon Collins.

Brady’s current woes are understandable.  Over the course of the last month, he’s lost several key components on his offensive line; bad news for a unit that lacked quality depth to begin with.  Nate Solder, Bryan Stork and Ryan Wendall have all been placed on IR, while Tre’ Jackson, Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer were both unable to play last week and are no sure thing to suit up on Monday Night either.  Brady has also lost his top safety blanket, WR Julian Edelman and his other safety valve, RB Dion Lewis, a dangerous weapon catching passes out of the backfield.  New England’s offense isn’t as good as it was a month or two ago – not even close.

Neither is the Patriots defense.  As we saw last week, with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, New England allowed an 86 yard Giants drive that should have clinched the game; unable to get a key stop.  That’s a legitimate concern since New England hasn’t faced an above average offense since they played Buffalo the first time, a 40-32 Pats road win.  Let’s not forget that New England was an underdog in that game.  Now they’re laying a touchdown or more on the NFL odds board, depending on the book.

My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Bills last week in their outright upset against the Jets.  And Buffalo remains something of an undervalued commodity this week.

Yes, Buffalo underachieved throughout October, going 1-3 SU and ATS, in a four game stretch, the lone victory coming by a single point at Tennessee.  But the Bills aren’t the same team now that they were last month.  It makes a big difference to have a healthy QB in Tyrod Taylor, two healthy RB’s in Shady McCoy and Karlos Williams, and a healthy deep threat in Sammy Watkins all returning to the field following injury absences.

Rex Ryan’s pre-bye quote stands out even more now: “Quite honestly, I don't know if I've ever been on a team that needed a bye week worse than we do. We got to get some guys back. Not just average football players, but pretty darn good ones. We got to get them back, we got to get healthy and have a heck of a go at it, nine games."  So far, the Bills are 2-0 since getting everybody back, covering the spread by more than a touchdown in both contests.  Expect that ATS winning streak to continue here with your NFL picksTake the Bills at BetOnline.

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