Monday Night Football Final Thoughts: Vikings-Bears Will Go Over

Jordan Sharp

Monday, October 9, 2017 6:53 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 9, 2017 6:53 PM UTC

It’s down to the final hours before the finale of Week 5 in Chicago between the Vikings and Bears. After previewing this one last night, let’s dive into some final thoughts and picks leading into Monday Night Football!

Air It Out

Conventional wisdom tonight says that the Bears will rely on their very good run game with rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky making his first professional start. Usually head coaches and offensive coordinators want to limit exposure to their young quarterbacks, especially in their first start, but this Vikings’ defense has been very tough to run on.

As I mentioned in last night’s preview, the Vikings have been one of the best run defenses in the league this season, but their defense against the pass has been a little shaky. Minnesota had a nice game against the Lions in Week 4, but other than that they have given up at least 243 yards or more to opposing QBs in their other three games. A lot of that has gone to wideouts too, but mainly because of Minnesota playing with the lead so much.

Chicago’s front seven is going to shut down a now non-existent run game for Minnesota tonight, but the Bears' passing defense has been spotty. They have allowed over 600 yards to opposing receivers this season, and with Sam Bradford back there stands to be some chucking going on tonight to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.


Final Thoughts and Pick

If this game turns into a passing fest with both teams stopping one another’s run games, it could be a lot higher than the total of 40 points suggests. Sure, the Bears will run it as much as possible to limit the exposure to Trubisky, but if the Vikings strike early with Bradford back under center you can kiss that strategy goodbye, John Fox.

Imagine Minnesota up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter, and you are hitting yourself while saying, “the total WAS pretty low.” Don’t be that guy. The over has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these divisional rivals, and right now the evidence is on my side with the line movement.

Earlier in the week this total dipped down to 40 points exactly, and over the last 48 hours it has slowly started to climb. Most of this can be contributed to Bradford likely playing, but some of it is people with the same line of thinking as me. They see a shootout in the Windy City.

Right now 5Dimes and Bovada have both moved their totals up to 41, and others are looking like they will have to make the same move from 40½.

Free NFL Pick: Over 40.5Best Line Offered: Sports Betting

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