Monday Night Football Bears vs. Packers: Free NFL Picks

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 1, 2013 9:20 PM GMT

Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers are set to collide in NFL Week 9, in what is expected to be another lopsided affair with the Packers heavily favoured all the way. Do the bookies have it right? Or can we expect the unexpected here? Join us as we breakdown the odds and deliver our NFL picks.

Betting on the winner: Bears +375 @ Packers -500


Analysis:
Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers wrap up week 9 with their clash set for Monday Night Football.  Sportsbooks have this game firmly cornered in Packers’ camp with -500 NFL odds set on the moneyline for a home win and widespread expert opinion concurs with this hefty assessment, and for good reason: Packers simply look unstoppable with an 11-game winning streak at home (which includes playoffs) and Aaron Rodgers alone boasts a 9-2 record overall against the Bears.

To put it simply, Packers (5-2, 3-0 home) have been solid in every facet of the game, save for maybe the question marks over the secondary (but let’s not nitpick), and that poses a great problem for the Bears to overcome – with or without Cutler.

Cutler remains a question mark to start as most expect Josh McCowen to get the call. Bears, tipped at +375 odds at Bet365 to win outright, are coming off a bye week and have lost three of their last four games, their last of which was a 45-41 defeat to Washington Redskins in which Cutler suffered a groin injury early in the game and didn’t return to the field.

If Cutler does play, this game could get a bit more interesting, in terms of betting and perhaps even the odds on a Bears (4-3, 1-2 away) win would shorten but not by so much to make much of an impact as they’ve had no luck against the Packers in recent years. Currently, they boast a six-game losing streak to the Packers.

Make no mistake the Packers are the correct favourites to win outright and, most likely, they will come through for sports bettors. That’s why we agree with the bookies here and recommend Packers to win as our  sports betting prediction for your consideration.

NFL Picks: Packers to win outright at -500

Also Check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 9 Value Picks

NFL Picks: Week 9 Fades & Games to Avoid

Betting the spread: Bears +10.5 @ Packers -10.5

Analysis:
Is this spread to high or just right? A 10.5-point spread is no joke and a big deal to cover on both sides of the coin in most cases. That said without Jay Cutler this spread does seem just about right, don’t you think.

Bears defense has been struggling this season, allowing an average of 31 points and over 130 yards rushing per game over the last month. On the flipside, the Packers are fifth overall in passing yards averaging 297.4 per game and fourth overall against the rush at 83.6. That there is an opening for the Bears on pass defense, which has been a tad shaky for the Packers, is something to consider but capitalising on that facet could come down to McCowen.

Can we rely on McCowen if it comes down to it? Possibly he could do it but sounds a bit of a stretch. Put all that against the fact that Packers are 3-0 ATS at home this season while the Bears are 1-2 ATS on the road and well...Packers to cover does seem to be the value NFL pick after all.

NFL Picks: Packers to cover -10.5

[gameodds]16/227014/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]