MNF Point/Counterpoint: Is Minny Money Or Should Bettors Be High On Hawks?

SBR Picks Staff

Wednesday, December 5, 2018 10:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2018 10:39 PM UTC

The boys are all even again as Doug evened the season "MNF" series with Swinger when he expertly capped the Eagles to not only win but cover the number last week. Let’s see what this week holds as these two get back to battling in Week 14.

Swinging Johnson MNF ATS Record: 7-7

Doug Upstone MNF ATS Record: 7-7

Minnesota (6-5-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) at Seattle (7-5 SU, 7-3-2 ATS)Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)S.J. Free NFL Pick: SeahawksDoug's Free NFL Pick: VikingsBest Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3452865, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,999991,238,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The boys are all even again as Doug evened the season MNF series with Swinger when he expertly capped the Eagles to not only win but cover the number last week. Let’s see what this week holds as these two get back to battling in Week 14.

Seattle rolled over the 49ers last week off the arm of Russell Wilson who torched the Niners for four touchdowns en route to a 43-16 smackdown in Seattle. Wilson didn’t pass often but when he did, he made them count as evidenced by his 11-of-17 passing day for 185 yards and no picks. When the Seattle air show was taking a breather the duo of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny racked up 134 yards combined on the ground with a trip into the endzone for Penny. The Seattle bested San Francisco for the ninth consecutive time and head into Week 14 on a three-game winning streak.

The Vikings traveled to the Razor, home of the New England Patriots, and got a 24-10 shave for their efforts. Kirk Cousins threw early and often but could manage just 201 yards on 44 attempts with one passing touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. A five-yard TD toss to Adam Thielen and a 39-yard field goal by Dan Bailey is all Minnesota could muster. The Vikings have failed to cover the NFL odds in two of their last three games including their loss last week as 5 ½ point road dogs and will now travel to Seattle to stay relevant in the postseason hunt.

Let’s hear what Swinger and Doug have to say about this matchup on Monday night and why they are backing the Seahawks and Vikings, respectively, in their NFL picks.

Swinging Johnson: Well Doug, I have to hand it to you. You won last week fair and square, you picked the Eagles as the home chalk and the Redskins lost another battle at Wounded Knee with Colt McCoy exiting with a leg injury after going 4-for-4 which made way for the immortal and useful as "pedals on a wheelchair," Mark Sanchez. Looked like a close one until Sanchez took over early in the second and then I knew the deed was done and I would be genuflecting at the altar of Upstone.

OK, so I’ve got Seattle over the Vikings this week and am not shy about laying a field goal or even a scooch more. Right now, SBR Odds is showing several books hanging Seattle -3 (-120) while others are offering Seattle -3 ½ (+105). I am so supremely confident in the Hawks delivering a beatdown that I will consider Seattle a three and a hook favorite for the purposes of this discussion.

Let me tell you why. Russell Wilson is playing his best ball of the season and he’s getting decent protection from his line. Those two things are not mere coincidence. Now people talk about the Vikings defensive front and it’s good but not great. Wilson will be able to exploit the Vikings secondary with the only real cover man left after all the injuries is Xavier Rhodes and he’s been hampered by a hammy. Seattle doesn’t have an Antonio Brown or an OBJ but they have depth in their receiving corps with three solid targets in Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and David Moore, although Baldwin has had groin issues this year (haven’t we all?). Tell me your take on this, your lordship?

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Ready to bring the fight on Monday Night. #GoHawks | #MINvsSEA pic.twitter.com/Bd9No1J1ky

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 5, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Doug Upstone: Never one to not accept praise, I graciously say Thank you, Swinging Johnson. Everyone one of your points make perfect sense SJ, Wilson has the No.1 running game in front of him, this give him more time to pass and his pass catchers are above average. This Minnesota defense has not been the same since last year's postseason and gets credit from those in the media that frankly are not paying attention and just mailing in the same old crap that offers zero insight. However, your explanation is quite good, IF you want to bet Seattle. Here is the flip side.

No question, the Vikings defense not the same, but in a one-game situation, they obviously are quite capable. They still are holding opposing teams to 3.7 YPA on the ground, which is 25 percent less than what their foes have averaged. That makes first down the key for the Vikings. Because if they can force a good number of 3rd and longs, than they dail up the pass rush. Yes, Wilson is elusive, but, everyone knows that staying in lanes and collapsing the pocket is how you sack him. Minnesota is quite capable and Wilson, like Aaron Rodgers, will hold the ball too long. OK, with the Legion of Boom gone "pofff" what will your Coffee Town defense do to stop the Norsemen passing game?

Swinging Johnson: Before I begin, excellent point by you that too often reputation, and not reality, sways the betting public. Teams change and injuries happen even if the injured player is actually playing through it, you can’t expect him to perform at the same level when healthy and few take that into account.

As for your question, Seattle will stop Cousins because quarterbacks have an unusually difficult time passing when lying down … with large men on top of them. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. So the Minny passing attack does not scare me. I welcome it.

On the flipside, and in terms of the Seattle offense it’s not only Wilson’s passing that’s been stellar lately (4 TDs last week no picks vs. 49ers) but Seattle will do a nice job running. And speaking of which, I like the fact that Seattle’s Rashaad Penny may get a few more carries than normal with Chris Carson playing but maybe just a wee bit limited with a dislocated finger suffered last week. Penny will provide a more explosive attack and more likely to hit the long gainers. Minny is ranked 7th against the run, allowing just a tick under 100 yards per game, but last week they watched the Patriots run for 160 yards because they were keying on the pass. Wilson’s no Tom Brady but he does run a lot better, so I think Seattle will do fine on the ground against the Vikes. What say you?

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

.@athielen19 is tied for 5th in the NFL with 9 TD receptions in 2018. #ProBowlVote

🎙️: @PAOnTheMic pic.twitter.com/ZStxphpkkB

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 5, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Doug Upstone: I will not say Minnesota's defense will stop Seattle run game, but they can slow it down and as stated, for my money it all starts on first down. OK, as always, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum on that one. However, and that should be in all CAPS you Subaru-driving coffee-drinker. Yes, Cousins will get sacked two, maybe, three times. And he might be laying on his back a few other times, but that will be after 30 or more yard completions to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The Hawks (that's what the locals call them) have allowed just a couple ticks past 295 YPG via the forward pass in their last six games.

Swinging Johnson: Alright, so to put a cork in this discussion and take one out of the sublime Caymus Cabernet I have waiting for me downstairs, I don’t think the Minnesota offensive line is gonna keep the wolves at bay this week. New England sacked Cousins twice last week and they’re ranked 30th in the league in sacks so I think that Cousins’ uniform will get dirty quite a bit on Sunday which is why they’ll use Dalvin Cook to run the ball. But once the Vikings fall behind by 10 they’ll have to go strictly to the pass, they’ll panic and that, as they say, is that. You’ve got the final word Doug.

Doug Upstone: Believe what you will, but when you have 10,000 semi-frozen lakes to choose from, you have options. If Cousins matches Wilson's productivity, I'll gladly take the +3.5 and 13-5 ATS the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. Your Seabags are a sorry 4-17 ATS after beating a division foe by 21 or more points. Enjoy your wine, I'll have a Hamms!

comment here